Analytical solution of a generalized Penna model

In 1995 T.J.Penna introduced a simple model of biological aging. A modified Penna model has been demonstrated to exhibit behaviour of real-life systems including catastrophic senescence in salmon and a mortality plateau at advanced ages. We present a general steady-state, analytic solution to the Penna model, able to deal with arbitrary birth and survivability functions. This solution is employed to solve standard variant Penna models studied by simulation. Different Verhulst factors regulating both the birth rate and external death rate are considered.Comment: 6 figure

The Heumann-Hotzel model for aging revisited

Since its proposition in 1995, the Heumann-Hotzel model has remained as an obscure model of biological aging. The main arguments used against it were its apparent inability to describe populations with many age intervals and its failure to prevent a population extinction when only deleterious mutations are present. We find that with a simple and minor change in the model these difficulties can be surmounted. Our numerical simulations show a plethora of interesting features: the catastrophic senescence, the Gompertz law and that postponing the reproduction increases the survival probability, as has already been experimentally confirmed for the Drosophila fly.Comment: 11 pages, 5 figures, to be published in Phys. Rev.

Age, stage and senescence in plants

Senescence (an increase in the mortality rate or force of mortality, or a decrease in fertility, with increasing age) is a widespread phenomenon. Theories about the evolution of senescence have long focused on the age trajectories of the selection gradients on mortality and fertility. In purely age-classified models, these selection gradients are non-increasing with age, implying that traits expressed early in life have a greater impact on fitness than traits expressed later in life. This pattern leads inevitably to the evolution of senescence if there are trade-offs between early and late performance. It has long been suspected that the stage- or size-dependent demography typical of plants might change these conclusions. In this paper, we develop a model that includes both stage- and age-dependence and derive the age-dependent, stage-dependent and age×stage-dependent selection gradients on mortality and fertility. We applied this model to stage-classified population projection matrices for 36 species of plants, from a wide variety of growth forms (from mosses to trees) and habitats. We found that the age-specific selection gradients within a life cycle stage can exhibit increases with age (we call these contra-senescent selection gradients). In later stages, often large size classes in plant demography, the duration of these contra-senescent gradients can exceed the life expectancy by several fold. Synthesis. The interaction of age- and stage-dependence in plants leads to selection pressures on senescence fundamentally different from those found in previous, age-classified theories. This result may explain the observation that large plants seem less subject to senescence than most kinds of animals. The methods presented here can lead to improved analysis of both age-dependent and stage-dependent demographic properties of plant populations. © 2013 The Authors. Journal of Ecolog

Antenatal corticosteroids and outcomes in gastroschisis: A multicenter retrospective cohort study.

In gastroschisis, there is evidence to suggest that gut dysfunction develops secondary to bowel inflammation; we aimed to evaluate the effect of maternal antenatal corticosteroids administered for obstetric reasons on time to full enteral feeds in a multicenter cohort study of gastroschisis infants. A three center, retrospective cohort study (1992-2013) with linked fetal/neonatal gastroschisis data was conducted. The primary outcome measure was time to full enteral feeds (a surrogate measure for bowel function) and secondary outcome measure was length of hospital stay. Analysis included Mann-Whitney and Cox regression. Of 500 patients included in the study, 69 (GA at birth 34 [25-38] weeks) received antenatal corticosteroids and 431 (GA at birth 37 [31-41] weeks) did not. Antenatal corticosteroids had no effect on the rate of reaching full feeds (Hazard ratio HR 1.0 [95% CI: 0.8-1.4]). However, complex gastroschisis (HR 0.3 [95% CI: 0.2-0.4]) was associated with an increased time to reach full feeds and later GA at birth (HR 1.1 per week increase in GA [95% CI: 1.1-1.2]) was associated with a decreased time to reach full feeds. Maternal antenatal corticosteroids use, under current antenatal steroid protocols, in gastroschisis is not associated with an improvement in neonatal outcomes such as time to full enteral feeds or length of hospital stay

Modelling trickle irrigation: Comparison of analytical and numerical models for estimation of wetting front position with time

Irrigation practices that are profligate in their use of water have come under closer scrutiny by water managers and the public. Trickle irrigation has the propensity to increase water use efficiency but only if the system is designed to meet the soil and plant conditions. Recently we have provided a software tool, WetUp (http://www.clw.csiro.au/products/wetup/), to calculate the wetting patterns from trickle irrigation emitters. WetUp uses an analytical solution to calculate the wetted perimeter for both buried and surface emitters. This analytical solution has a number of assumptions, two of which are that the wetting front is defined by water content at which the hydraulic conductivity (K) is I mm day(-1) and that the flow occurs from a point source. Here we compare the wetting patterns calculated with a 2-dimensional numerical model, HYDRUS2D, for solving the water flow into typical soils with the analytical solution. The results show that the wetting patterns are similar, except when the soil properties result in the assumption of a point source no longer being a good description of the flow regime. Difficulties were also experienced with getting stable solutions with HYDRUS2D for soils with low hydraulic conductivities. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved