Superscars

Wave functions of plane polygonal billiards are investigated. It is demonstrated that they have clear structures (superscars) related with families of classical periodic orbits which do not disappear at large energy

Recommended Strategies for Odor Control in Confinement Beef Cattle Operations

Odors coming off a beef feeding operation are generated from three different sources: the feedlot facility, waste storage, and the land where the manure is applied. In some operations, the feedlot facility may also serve as the primary waste storage area. To reduce the total amount of odor generated from a beef feeding operation, odor generation and emission by each of these three sources needs to be reduced

Hypertension burden in Luxembourg: Individual risk factors and geographic variations, 2013 to 2015 European Health Examination Survey

Hypertension is a modifiable risk factor for cardiovascular disease, but it remains the main cause of death in Luxembourg. We aimed to estimate the current prevalence of hypertension, associated risk factors, and its geographic variation in Luxembourg.Cross-sectional, population-based data on 1497 randomly selected Luxembourg residents aged 25 to 64 years were collected as part of the European Health Examination Survey from 2013 to 2015. Hypertension was defined as systolic/diastolic blood pressure ≥140/90 mm Hg, self-report of a physician diagnosis or on antihypertensive medication. Standard and Bayesian regressions were used to examine associations between hypertension and covariates, and also geographic distribution of hypertension across the country.Nearly 31% of Luxembourg residents were hypertensive, and over 70% of those were either unaware of their condition or not adequately controlled. The likelihood of hypertension was lower in men more physically active (odds ratio [95% credible region] 0.6 [0.4, 0.9]) and consuming alcohol daily (0.3 [0.1, 0.8]), and higher in men with a poor health perception (1.6 [1.0, 2.7]) and in women experiencing depressive symptoms (1.8 [1.3, 2.7]). There were geographic variations in hypertension prevalence across cantons and municipalities. The highest odds ratio was observed in the most industrialized region (South-West) (1.2 [0.9, 1.6]) with a positive effect at 90% credible region.In Luxembourg, the vast majority of people with hypertension are either unaware of their condition or not adequately controlled, which constitutes a major, neglected public health challenge. There are geographic variations in hypertension prevalence in Luxembourg, hence the role of individual and regional risk factors along with public health initiatives to reduce disease burden should be considered

Uniform approximation for diffractive contributions to the trace formula in billiard systems

We derive contributions to the trace formula for the spectral density accounting for the role of diffractive orbits in two-dimensional billiard systems with corners. This is achieved by using the exact Sommerfeld solution for the Green function of a wedge. We obtain a uniformly valid formula which interpolates between formerly separate approaches (the geometrical theory of diffraction and Gutzwiller's trace formula). It yields excellent numerical agreement with exact quantum results, also in cases where other methods fail.Comment: LaTeX, 41 pages including 12 PostScript figures, submitted to Phys. Rev.

Rough droplet model for spherical metal clusters

We study the thermally activated oscillations, or capillary waves, of a neutral metal cluster within the liquid drop model. These deformations correspond to a surface roughness which we characterize by a single parameter $\Delta$. We derive a simple analytic approximate expression determining $\Delta$ as a function of temperature and cluster size. We then estimate the induced effects on shell structure by means of a periodic orbit analysis and compare with recent data for shell energy of sodium clusters in the size range $50 < N < 250$. A small surface roughness $\Delta\simeq 0.6$ \AA~ is seen to give a reasonable account of the decrease of amplitude of the shell structure observed in experiment. Moreover -- contrary to usual Jahn-Teller type of deformations -- roughness correctly reproduces the shape of the shell energy in the domain of sizes considered in experiment.Comment: 20 pages, 4 figures, important modifications of the presentation, to appear in Phys. Rev.

Estimating the number of infections and the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in European countries: technical description update

Following the emergence of a novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) and its spread outside of China, Europe has experienced large epidemics. In response, many European countries have implemented unprecedented non-pharmaceutical interventions including case isolation, the closure of schools and universities, banning of mass gatherings and/or public events, and most recently, wide-scale social distancing including local and national lockdowns. In this technical update, we extend a semi-mechanistic Bayesian hierarchical model that infers the impact of these interventions and estimates the number of infections over time. Our methods assume that changes in the reproductive number - a measure of transmission - are an immediate response to these interventions being implemented rather than broader gradual changes in behaviour. Our model estimates these changes by calculating backwards from temporal data on observed to estimate the number of infections and rate of transmission that occurred several weeks prior, allowing for a probabilistic time lag between infection and death. In this update we extend our original model [Flaxman, Mishra, Gandy et al 2020, Report #13, Imperial College London] to include (a) population saturation effects, (b) prior uncertainty on the infection fatality ratio, (c) a more balanced prior on intervention effects and (d) partial pooling of the lockdown intervention covariate. We also (e) included another 3 countries (Greece, the Netherlands and Portugal). The model code is available at https://github.com/ImperialCollegeLondon/covid19model/ We are now reporting the results of our updated model online at https://mrc-ide.github.io/covid19estimates/ We estimated parameters jointly for all M=14 countries in a single hierarchical model. Inference is performed in the probabilistic programming language Stan using an adaptive Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) sampler

HIV-1 drug-resistance patterns among patients on failing treatment in a large number of European countries

Background: Information about patterns of HIV-1 drug resistance among treatment-exposed patients is crucial for the development of novel effective drugs. Currently no system exists that monitors patterns of resistance in patients failing therapy. Methods: The study included 1,988 HIV-1 sequences from patients experiencing therapy failure collected between 2000 and 2004 in 15 European countries. Genotypic resistance was interpreted using the ANRS algorithm. Phenotypic resistance was predicted using the Virco geno- to phenotype system. Results: 80.7% of the sequences included at least one drug-resistance mutation. Mutations were found for NRTIs (73.5%), NNRTIs (48.5%), and protease inhibitors (35.8%). Ninety percent of sequences with genotypic resistance harbored M184V, M41L, K103N, D67N, and/or T215Y. Among NRTIs, resistance was most frequently predicted for lamivudine. About half of all sequences had reduced susceptibility for NNRTIs. Resistance to most boosted protease inhibitors was found in &lt; 25%. No sequence had resistance to all currently available drugs. Conclusion: Levels of resistance among patients with therapy failure were high. The patterns of resistance reflect resistance to drugs available for a longer time. Fully suppressive regimens can be designed even for the most mutated HIV because boosted protease inhibitors have remained active against most circulating viruses and new drug classes have become available.</p

The public health impact and cost-effectiveness of the R21/Matrix-M malaria vaccine: a mathematical modelling study

Background The R21/Matrix-M vaccine has demonstrated high efficacy against Plasmodium falciparum clinical malaria in children in sub-Saharan Africa. Using trial data, we aimed to estimate the public health impact and cost-effectiveness of vaccine introduction across sub-Saharan Africa. Methods We fitted a semi-mechanistic model of the relationship between anti-circumsporozoite protein antibody titres and vaccine efficacy to data from 3 years of follow-up in the phase 2b trial of R21/Matrix-M in Nanoro, Burkina Faso. We validated the model by comparing predicted vaccine efficacy to that observed over 12–18 months in the phase 3 trial. Integrating this framework within a mathematical transmission model, we estimated the cases, malaria deaths, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) averted and cost-effectiveness over a 15-year time horizon across a range of transmission settings in sub-Saharan Africa. Cost-effectiveness was estimated incorporating the cost of vaccine introduction (dose, consumables, and delivery) relative to existing interventions at baseline. We report estimates at a median of 20% parasite prevalence in children aged 2–10 years (PfPR2–10) and ranges from 3% to 65% PfPR2–10. Findings Anti-circumsporozoite protein antibody titres were found to satisfy the criteria for a surrogate of protection for vaccine efficacy against clinical malaria. Age-based implementation of a four-dose regimen of R21/Matrix-M vaccine was estimated to avert 181 825 (range 38 815–333 491) clinical cases per 100 000 fully vaccinated children in perennial settings and 202 017 (29 868–405 702) clinical cases per 100 000 fully vaccinated children in seasonal settings. Similar estimates were obtained for seasonal or hybrid implementation. Under an assumed vaccine dose price of USD 3, the incremental cost per clinical case averted was USD 7 (range 4–48) in perennial settings and USD 6 (3–63) in seasonal settings and the incremental cost per DALY averted was USD 34 (29–139) in perennial settings and USD 30 (22–172) in seasonal settings, with lower cost-effectiveness ratios in settings with higher PfPR2–10. Interpretation Introduction of the R21/Matrix-M malaria vaccine could have a substantial public health benefit across sub-Saharan Africa. Funding The Wellcome Trust, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the UK Medical Research Council, the European and Developing Countries Clinical Trials Partnership 2 and 3, the NIHR Oxford Biomedical Research Centre, and the Serum Institute of India, Open Philanthropy