Relationships between men's gender attitudes and fertility

An analysis published in a recent edition of this journal (Puur, Olah, Tazi-Preve, and Dorbritz 2008) reported that, in eight European countries, men with egalitarian gender attitudes both desired and had more children than men with more traditional gender attitudes. These unexpected findings led us to explore a similar research question with an alternate dataset--the European/World Value Surveys. But we found--without exception--a negative association between men's egalitarian attitudes and fertility, not only in the selected European countries but also in a considerable number of other developed countries. We explore possible reasons for and implications of these divergent findings

The potential role of contraception in reducing abortion

Since the 1960s the proportion of couples practicing contraception has risen rapidly, particularly in the developing world, and the mix of methods is now dominated by modern methods. Despite these trends, the incidence of unintended pregnancy remains high mainly because the number of children desired has declined. Worldwide there are almost as many unintended as intended pregnancies each year (not counting miscarriages, which are excluded in this analysis) and more than half of these unintended pregnancies end in abortion. This study examines the potential role of further increases in contraceptive prevalence and effectiveness in reducing abortion rates. The model used in this analysis links the abortion rate to its direct determinants, including couples’ reproductive preferences, the prevalence and effectiveness of contraceptive practice to implement these preferences, and the probability of an abortion to avoid unintended births when contraception fails or is not used. An assessment of the tradeoff between contraception and abortion yields estimates of the decline in the total abortion rate that would result from an illustrative increase of 10 percentage points in prevalence. This effect varies among societies, primarily because the tendency to use abortion after an unintended pregnancy varies. For example, in a population with an abortion probability of 0.5, a 10 percentage point increase in prevalence would avert approximately 0.45 abortions per woman, assuming contraception is 95 percent effective. If all unintended pregnancies were aborted, this effect would be three times larger. Eliminating all unintended pregnancies and subsequent abortions would require a rise in contraceptive prevalence to the level at which all fecund women who do not wish to become pregnant practice 100 percent effective contraception. A procedure is provided for estimating this “perfect” level of contraceptive prevalence

Comparación entre las historias completas y truncadas de nacimientos para medir la fecundidad y la mortalidad de la niñez

Incluye BibliografíaComparación entre las técnicas de recopilación de datos de fecundidad a través de historias truncadas y de historias completas de nacimientos, en la experiencia en Perú, 1986

The potential impact of improvements in contraception on fertility and abortion in western countries

Survey information on fertility intentions, patterns of contraceptive use, contraceptive failures and abortions is used to develop estimates of unwanted births and of unplanned pregnancies for seven countries, by method of contraception. Potential improvements in contraception, leading to more use of highly efficient methods are considered, and several scenarios for improved contraceptive use are presented. The impact each would have on fertility levels and on abortion rates is estimated. Although improvements in contraception will have only a limited impact on fertility — which is already very low — their impact on abortion could be considerable Les auteurs utilisent des données d'enquêtes sur les intentions de procréation, le recours à la contraception, les échecs de la contraception et l'avortement pour évaluer les naissances non désirées et les grossesses non planifiées, selon la méthode de contraception utilisée, dans sept pays. Ils envisagent d'éventuels progrès de la contraception conduisant à un élargissement de l'emploi de méthodes très efficaces, et évaluent, dans différents scénarios de progrès du recours à la contraception, son impact sur les niveaux de la fécondité et de l'avortement. Si le progrès de la contraception n'aura qu'un effet limité sur la fécondité — déjà très basse — son impact sur les niveaux de l'avortement pourrait être considérable.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/42729/1/10680_2005_Article_BF01797090.pd

The causes of stalling fertility transitions

An examination of fertility trends in countries with multiple DHS surveys found that in the 1990s fertility stalled in mid-transition in seven countries: Bangladesh, Colombia, Dominican Republic, Ghana, Kenya, Peru, and Turkey. An analysis of trends in the determinants of fertility revealed a systematic pattern of leveling off or near leveling in a number of determinants, including contraceptive use, the demand for contraception, and wanted fertility. Findings suggest no major deterioration in contraceptive access during the stall, but levels of unmet need and unwanted fertility are relatively high and improvements in access to family planning methods would therefore be desirable. No significant link was found between the presence of a stall and trends in socioeconomic development, but at the onset of the stall the level of fertility was low relative to the level of development in all but one of the stalling countries