Income Tax Incentives to Promote Saving

We examine six alternative plans which might be discussed in an effort to increase consumer savings through the personal income tax system in the United States. These plans attempt to affect savings through an increase in the real rate of return either by direct tax cuts on savings or by indexing tax rates against inflation. The paper presents estimates of static and dynamic resource allocation effects for the six plans, and compares them to results obtained in earlier work on the impacts of more sweeping reforms. A medium-scale numerical general equilibrium model is used which integrates the U. S. tax system with consumer demand behavior by household and producer behavior by industry.

Speculative Price Bubbles in the Rice Market and the 1974 Bangladesh Famine

This paper investigates the role played by speculative price bubbles in destabilizing food markets in Bangladesh during the 1974 famine. The hypothesis of speculative price bubbles in the rice market is tested using weekly price data. These tests are based on a theoretical model of storable food markets in which agents exhibit rational expectations. It is shown that such markets are susceptible to destabilizing trends by self-fulfilling expectations. While ¡°explosive price bubbles¡± have received extensive attention in macroeconomics, they have not been used in development economics to explain famines. Amartya Sen has hypothesized that speculative forces are a possible source of instability in the food market. Our empirical tests based on techniques from the recent literature on price bubbles lend some credence to the hypothesis that excessive speculation may have produced price bubbles in the rice market which directly contributed to the Bangladesh famine in 1974.

Age-adjusted disability rates and regional effects in Russia

We provide three measures of age-standardized disability rates for each Russian region and show that most, though not all, of the regional patterns in disability prevalence disappear with standardization. Disability prevalence remains unusually high for women in St Petersburg and Belgorod but the "remote but healthy" pattern is nearly gone. We conclude that differences in age structure largely account for the differences in disability prevalence across regions of Russia.age-standardized disability, NOBUS survey, Russia

Disability in Kazakhstan : an evaluation of official data

In order to answer the questions of (a) what is the true pattern of disability in Kazakhstan; (b) whether the incidence of disability is decreasing; and (c) what is the life expectancy of Kazakhstan's disabled, this paper attempts first to create an historical picture of disability in Kazakhstan by analyzing government population statistics and studying the evolution of disability determination procedure in the former Soviet Union and independent Kazakhstan. Doing so is not a trivial task, as there has been almost no systematic research, either in Russian or English. The paper concludes that the optimistic official picture of disability patterns in Kazakhstan is almost certainly inaccurate. The paper details that the quality of official disability data is high, and much can be learned from the patterns. However, changing definitions and strictness of enforcement make time series comparisons problematic, and the improvements in adult disability recorded are inconsistent both with trends for children, and with mortality trends. Rather, the authors note that barriers for applying disability benefits have increased and incentives to report disabilities have decreased markedly in the past 15 years, so that it is virtually certain that there is substantial hidden disability.Population Policies,Disease Control&Prevention,Disability,,Social Protections&Assistance

Kazakhstan's Pension System: Pressures for Change and Dramatic Reforms

Five years ago, Kazakhstan embarked on a dramatic reform of its pension and social security system in order to move from an unsustainable public defined benefit ("solidarity") system to one of defined mandatory contributions (accumulative system). While assessment of long-run success is premature, early results have exceeded expectations. This paper considers the reform's rationale and initial impact: Why did the Government of Kazakhstan decide to introduce a new pension system? What advantages did the state perceive? Was the Government's decision appropriate, and what alternatives existed? The paper also analyzes pension reform issues that have yet to be fully resolved.

Fertility and Marriage in Kazakhstan's Transition Period: Implications for Social Security Policy

Seven years ago, Kazakhstan embarked on a dramatic reform of its pension and social security system in order to move from an unsustainable public defined benefit ("solidarity") system to one of defined mandatory contributions (accumulative system). While much has been written on the financial implications for individual contributors, and on macro budgetary impacts, there has been no examination of how changing demographic structure is likely to affect the size of vulnerable pools. This paper explores the impact of these changes, and links demographic structure to economic performance. Focusing on changes in nuptiality (marriage) and fertility, we conclude that demographic structural shifts will increase overall system risk, but that current trends are favorable.

Water quality in mined and unmined watersheds in East Tennessee

In late 1980 and early 1981 a stream flow monitoring station was installed on each of six small watersheds to evaluate the effects of surface mining on water quality. Three of the watersheds were in the Cumberland Mountains and three were on the Cumberland Plateau of east Tennessee. Both geographic regions had a recently mined, old mined and unmined watershed. Stream flow and concentration levels for 12 water quality parameters, collected every four weeks from 1981 through 198A, were evaluated. Geology, soils and land cover data were also studied. Analyses were made to determine seasonality of stream water quality, differences due to watershed conditions and changes in stream water quality over the study period. Results showed that there were seasonal variations in water quality and that flow rates were associated with these differences. Significant differences in water quality were found between newly mined and unmined watersheds, with newly mined watersheds generally having higher levels of minerals and greater turbidity. Differences were also found between old mined and unmined watersheds. The Cumberland Mountains unmined watershed had greater concentrations than the old mined one for most of the constituents tested, especially total dissolved solids, lead, magnesium, sodium and calcium. This was apparently due to a road running through the unmined watershed. The two newly mined watersheds showed a significant change in water quality over the study period; the plateau one decreased in stream concentration levels, whereas the mountain watershed levels increased. Two other watersheds showed only marginal changes in water quality. Stream water quality, as defined by EPA, was adversely affected by surface mining. Age of the mined area was associated with water quality, the older the mined area the better the water quality