Learning, Observability and Time-varying Macroeconomic Volatility

Our paper provides a theoretical explanation for the time-varying macroeconomic volatility by introducing the unobservability of regime switching and learning. With the unobservability of regime switching, agents must endogenously form their expectations using best-performed forecasting models. We find that if the regime switching is observable to agents, agents do not shift their expectation frequently and so will not generate a larger macroeconomic volatility. However, with the unobservability of regime switching where no agents can know which regime is dominant, allowing endogenous expectation formation would give rise to larger macro fluctuations (first-layer amplification mechanism), which is made through agents frequently shifting their expectations. Furthermore, we consider the policy implication under the zero lower bound. Our simulations show that in the unobservable regime switching, the economy is more likely to fall into a deflationary trap. To avoid the deflation risk, the policy maker should set a higher expected inflation based threshold. If the expected inflation is under the threshold, an aggressive policy rate will be implemented; otherwise, the normal Taylor-rule monetary policy will be used. Furthermore, to reduce the deflation risk, the strategy for the policy maker is to raise the threshold, and this will generate larger macroeconomic fluctuations (second-layer amplification mechanism) due to more frequent policy strategy switching. We argue that sometimes only with unobservability, the policy maker faces a dilemma between avoiding deflation risk and maintaining macroeconomic stability, and huge macroeconomic fluctuations do not necessarily result from bad luck or bad policy but from the two-layer amplification mechanism caused by the unobservability

On the Feasibility of Specialized Ability Stealing for Large Language Code Models

Recent progress in large language code models (LLCMs) has led to a dramatic surge in the use of software development. Nevertheless, it is widely known that training a well-performed LLCM requires a plethora of workforce for collecting the data and high quality annotation. Additionally, the training dataset may be proprietary (or partially open source to the public), and the training process is often conducted on a large-scale cluster of GPUs with high costs. Inspired by the recent success of imitation attacks in stealing computer vision and natural language models, this work launches the first imitation attack on LLCMs: by querying a target LLCM with carefully-designed queries and collecting the outputs, the adversary can train an imitation model that manifests close behavior with the target LLCM. We systematically investigate the effectiveness of launching imitation attacks under different query schemes and different LLCM tasks. We also design novel methods to polish the LLCM outputs, resulting in an effective imitation training process. We summarize our findings and provide lessons harvested in this study that can help better depict the attack surface of LLCMs. Our research contributes to the growing body of knowledge on imitation attacks and defenses in deep neural models, particularly in the domain of code related tasks.Comment: 11 page

Pore structure characterization of Chang-7 tight sandstone using MICP combined with N2GA techniques and its geological control factors

Understanding the pore networks of unconventional tight reservoirs such as tight sandstones and shales is crucial for extracting oil/gas from such reservoirs. Mercury injection capillary pressure (MICP) and N(2) gas adsorption (N(2)GA) are performed to evaluate pore structure of Chang-7 tight sandstone. Thin section observation, scanning electron microscope, grain size analysis, mineral composition analysis, and porosity measurement are applied to investigate geological control factors of pore structure. Grain size is positively correlated with detrital mineral content and grain size standard deviation while negatively related to clay content. Detrital mineral content and grain size are positively correlated with porosity, pore throat radius and withdrawal efficiency and negatively related to capillary pressure and pore-to-throat size ratio; while interstitial material is negatively correlated with above mentioned factors. Well sorted sediments with high debris usually possess strong compaction resistance to preserve original pores. Although many inter-crystalline pores are produced in clay minerals, this type of pores is not the most important contributor to porosity. Besides this, pore shape determined by N(2)GA hysteresis loop is consistent with SEM observation on clay inter-crystalline pores while BJH pore volume is positively related with clay content, suggesting N(2)GA is suitable for describing clay inter-crystalline pores in tight sandstones

Considerable effects of lateralization and aging in intracortical excitation and inhibition

IntroductionFindings based on the use of transcranial magnetic stimulation and electromyography (TMS-EMG) to determine the effects of motor lateralization and aging on intracortical excitation and inhibition in the primary motor cortex (M1) are inconsistent in the literature. TMS and electroencephalography (TMS-EEG) measures the excitability of excitatory and inhibitory circuits in the brain cortex without contamination from the spine and muscles. This study aimed to investigate the effects of motor lateralization (dominant and non-dominant hemispheres) and aging (young and older) and their interaction effects on intracortical excitation and inhibition within the M1 in healthy adults, measured using TMS-EMG and TMS-EEG.MethodsThis study included 21 young (mean age = 28.1 ± 3.2 years) and 21 older healthy adults (mean age = 62.8 ± 4.2 years). A battery of TMS-EMG measurements and single-pulse TMS-EEG were recorded for the bilateral M1.ResultsTwo-way repeated-measures analysis of variance was used to investigate lateralization and aging and the lateralization-by-aging interaction effect on neurophysiological outcomes. The non-dominant M1 presented a longer cortical silent period and larger amplitudes of P60, N100, and P180. Corticospinal excitability in older participants was significantly reduced, as supported by a larger resting motor threshold and lower motor-evoked potential amplitudes. N100 amplitudes were significantly reduced in older participants, and the N100 and P180 latencies were significantly later than those in young participants. There was no significant lateralization-by-aging interaction effect in any outcome.ConclusionLateralization and aging have independent and significant effects on intracortical excitation and inhibition in healthy adults. The functional decline of excitatory and inhibitory circuits in the M1 is associated with aging

Effect of dietary soybean meal on growth performance, apparent digestibility, intestinal digestive enzyme activity and muscle growth-related gene expression of Litopenaeus vannamei

Soybean meal is one of the major components of aquatic animal diets, whereas little information is available about the evaluation of soybean meal growth suppression mode of action. A 42-day feeding trial was performed to assess the effects of dietary soybean meal on growth performance, apparent digestibility, intestinal digestive enzyme activity, and muscle growth–related gene expression of Litopenaeus vannamei. A total of 600 shrimp were randomly distributed into 20 tanks with 30 shrimp per tank and four tanks per group. The soybean meal was added to the diets at the rate of 20% (T20), 28% (T28), 35% (T35), 42% (T42), and 50% (T50), respectively. Shrimp were fed with apparent satiation three times daily. Results indicated that the final body weight, weight gain rate, specific growth rate, feed intake, intestinesomatic index, dressed weight percentage, and the apparent digestibility coefficients of dry matter, crude protein, crude lipid, and ash were linearly decreased (p < 0.05), but feed coefficient was linearly increased (p < 0.05) as dietary soybean meal increased from 20% to 50%. The intestinal trypsin and amylase activities were decreased (p < 0.05) as dietary soybean meal increased from 20% to 50%, and reached significance at the level of 35%, 42%, and 50%. Shrimp fed with T20 had higher (p < 0.05) intestinal lipase activity than those fed with other diets. The mRNA relative expression of growth hormone, myogenic regulatory factor 5, and target of rapamycin was downregulated (p < 0.05) as dietary soybean meal increased from 20% to 50%. To conclude, dietary soybean meal exceeded 28% significantly inhibited growth performance of L. vannamei, mainly due to the negative impact of soybean meal on digestion and feed utilization and also the inhibition on the muscle growth and related gene expressions