新興市場国における社会保障と退職後計画問題

政策分析プログラム / Policy Analysis Program政策研究大学院大学 / National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies論文審査委員: Wade Pfau（主査）, 大山 達雄, James R. Rhodes, Roberto Leon Gonzalez, 高橋 アナマリア（ICU

Safe withdrawal rates from retirement savings for residents of emerging market countries

Researchers have mostly focused on U.S. historical data to develop the 4 percent withdrawal rate rule. This rule suggests that retirees can safely sustain retirement withdrawals without outliving their wealth for at least 30 years, if they initially withdraw 4 percent of their savings and adjust this amount for inflation in subsequent years. But, the time period covered in these studies represents a particularly favorable one for U.S. asset returns that is unlikely to be broadly experienced. This poses a concern about whether safe withdrawal rate guidance from the U.S. can be applied to the situation in other countries. Particularly for emerging economies, defined-contribution pension plans have been introduced along with under-developed or non-existing annuity markets, making retirement withdrawal strategies an important concern. We study sustainable withdrawal rates for a sample of 25 emerging countries and find that the sustainability of a 4 percent withdrawal rate differs widely and can likely not be treated as safe. The results suggest, as well, high stock allocations in the portfolio mix are not the optimal choice for retirees in emerging market countries.Sustainable withdrawal rates; bootstrapping; optimal asset allocation; emerging market economies; retirement planning; defined-contribution pensions

Simulating the impacts of cash transfers on poverty and school attendance: The case of Cambodia

Using the Cambodia Socioeconomic Survey 2004 and employing micro-static simulation techniques, we measure the potential impacts of cash transfer programs for children to identify targeted groups that will have the most effect on poverty and school attendance. We conclude that the largest impacts occur by targeting poor children. If this proves to be too administratively costly, then targeting children in rural areas or targeting all children living in the ten poorest provinces will also yield significant poverty reduction. With regard to improving school attendance, the same targeted groups generally provide the biggest impacts as well, though the impacts on school attendance tend to be smaller than on poverty reduction.cash transfer; poverty; school attendance; Cambodia

Retirement savings guidelines for residents of emerging market countries

Most literature about retirement planning treats the working (accumulation) and retirement (decumulation) phases separately. The traditional approach decides on safe withdrawal rate, uses it to derive a wealth accumulation target, and then calculates the savings rate required to achieve this wealth target. Because low sustainable withdrawal rates tend to occur after bull markets, such a formulation will push individuals toward unnecessarily high savings rates to attain their desired retirement spending goals, reducing their feasible lifestyle prior to retirement. By jointly considering both phases of retirement planning, this study provides savings rate guidelines for individuals in 25 emerging market countries. The savings rates calculated here are those which provide an adequate success rate in financing desired retirement expenditures using bootstrapped Monte Carlo simulations. For many emerging market countries, these savings rates will be high, given the high volatility of returns for savings instruments and the inflationary environment. Starting to save early and using a relatively low stock allocation, a finding that contrasts with studies about the United States, provide the lowest necessary savings rate for a given probability of success.safe withdrawal rates, retirement planning, savings and wealth accumulation targets, asset allocations, emerging market countries

Consumer Loans in Cambodia: Implications on Banking Stability

This paper analyzes the fast development of consumer loans including housing loans in Cambodia to check whether or not such a development posts any stability risk to banking system in Cambodia. Using stress-testing method, the paper finds that current level of consumer loans provided by banks does yet creates a big threat to the banking stability in Cambodia. Rather, the surge reflects consequences of positive development in the banking system and economy as a whole, including the rise of middle-income class, changing family structure, stronger competition among banks, and more widespread financial literacy

Consumer Loans in Cambodia: Implications on Banking Stability

This paper analyzes the fast development of consumer loans including housing loans in Cambodia to check whether or not such a development posts any stability risk to banking system in Cambodia. Using stress-testing method, the paper finds that current level of consumer loans provided by banks does yet creates a big threat to the banking stability in Cambodia. Rather, the surge reflects consequences of positive development in the banking system and economy as a whole, including the rise of middle-income class, changing family structure, stronger competition among banks, and more widespread financial literacy

Retirement savings guidelines for residents of emerging market countries

Most literature about retirement planning treats the working (accumulation) and retirement (decumulation) phases separately. The traditional approach decides on safe withdrawal rate, uses it to derive a wealth accumulation target, and then calculates the savings rate required to achieve this wealth target. Because low sustainable withdrawal rates tend to occur after bull markets, such a formulation will push individuals toward unnecessarily high savings rates to attain their desired retirement spending goals, reducing their feasible lifestyle prior to retirement. By jointly considering both phases of retirement planning, this study provides savings rate guidelines for individuals in 25 emerging market countries. The savings rates calculated here are those which provide an adequate success rate in financing desired retirement expenditures using bootstrapped Monte Carlo simulations. For many emerging market countries, these savings rates will be high, given the high volatility of returns for savings instruments and the inflationary environment. Starting to save early and using a relatively low stock allocation, a finding that contrasts with studies about the United States, provide the lowest necessary savings rate for a given probability of success

Safe withdrawal rates from retirement savings for residents of emerging market countries

Researchers have mostly focused on U.S. historical data to develop the 4 percent withdrawal rate rule. This rule suggests that retirees can safely sustain retirement withdrawals without outliving their wealth for at least 30 years, if they initially withdraw 4 percent of their savings and adjust this amount for inflation in subsequent years. But, the time period covered in these studies represents a particularly favorable one for U.S. asset returns that is unlikely to be broadly experienced. This poses a concern about whether safe withdrawal rate guidance from the U.S. can be applied to the situation in other countries. Particularly for emerging economies, defined-contribution pension plans have been introduced along with under-developed or non-existing annuity markets, making retirement withdrawal strategies an important concern. We study sustainable withdrawal rates for a sample of 25 emerging countries and find that the sustainability of a 4 percent withdrawal rate differs widely and can likely not be treated as safe. The results suggest, as well, high stock allocations in the portfolio mix are not the optimal choice for retirees in emerging market countries

Simulating the impacts of cash transfers on poverty and school attendance: The case of Cambodia

Using the Cambodia Socioeconomic Survey 2004 and employing micro-static simulation techniques, we measure the potential impacts of cash transfer programs for children to identify targeted groups that will have the most effect on poverty and school attendance. We conclude that the largest impacts occur by targeting poor children. If this proves to be too administratively costly, then targeting children in rural areas or targeting all children living in the ten poorest provinces will also yield significant poverty reduction. With regard to improving school attendance, the same targeted groups generally provide the biggest impacts as well, though the impacts on school attendance tend to be smaller than on poverty reduction

Safe withdrawal rates from retirement savings for residents of emerging market countries

Researchers have mostly focused on U.S. historical data to develop the 4 percent withdrawal rate rule. This rule suggests that retirees can safely sustain retirement withdrawals without outliving their wealth for at least 30 years, if they initially withdraw 4 percent of their savings and adjust this amount for inflation in subsequent years. But, the time period covered in these studies represents a particularly favorable one for U.S. asset returns that is unlikely to be broadly experienced. This poses a concern about whether safe withdrawal rate guidance from the U.S. can be applied to the situation in other countries. Particularly for emerging economies, defined-contribution pension plans have been introduced along with under-developed or non-existing annuity markets, making retirement withdrawal strategies an important concern. We study sustainable withdrawal rates for a sample of 25 emerging countries and find that the sustainability of a 4 percent withdrawal rate differs widely and can likely not be treated as safe. The results suggest, as well, high stock allocations in the portfolio mix are not the optimal choice for retirees in emerging market countries