Forecasting incidence of infectious diarrhea using random forest in Jiangsu Province, China

Background Infectious diarrhea can lead to a considerable global disease burden. Thus, the accurate prediction of an infectious diarrhea epidemic is crucial for public health authorities. This study was aimed at developing an optimal random forest (RF) model, considering meteorological factors used to predict an incidence of infectious diarrhea in Jiangsu Province, China. Methods An RF model was developed and compared with classical autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA)/X models. Morbidity and meteorological data from 2012 to 2016 were used to construct the models and the data from 2017 were used for testing. Results The RF model considered atmospheric pressure, precipitation, relative humidity, and their lagged terms, as well as 1–4 week lag morbidity and time variable as the predictors. Meanwhile, a univariate model ARIMA (1,0,1)(1,0,0)52 (AIC = − 575.92, BIC = − 558.14) and a multivariable model ARIMAX (1,0,1)(1,0,0)52 with 0–1 week lag precipitation (AIC = − 578.58, BIC = − 578.13) were developed as benchmarks. The RF model outperformed the ARIMA/X models with a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of approximately 20%. The performance of the ARIMAX model was comparable to that of the ARIMA model with a MAPE reaching approximately 30%. Conclusions The RF model fitted the dynamic nature of an infectious diarrhea epidemic well and delivered an ideal prediction accuracy. It comprehensively combined the synchronous and lagged effects of meteorological factors; it also integrated the autocorrelation and seasonality of the morbidity. The RF model can be used to predict the epidemic level and has a high potential for practical implementation

Residues 318 and 323 in capsid protein are involved in immune circumvention of the atypical epizootic infection of infectious bursal disease virus

Recently, atypical infectious bursal disease (IBD) caused by a novel variant infectious bursal disease virus (varIBDV) suddenly appeared in immunized chicken flocks in East Asia and led to serious economic losses. The epizootic varIBDV can partly circumvent the immune protection of the existing vaccines against the persistently circulating very virulent IBDV (vvIBDV), but its mechanism is still unknown. This study proved that the neutralizing titer of vvIBDV antiserum to the epizootic varIBDV reduced by 7.0 log2, and the neutralizing titer of the epizootic varIBDV antiserum to vvIBDV reduced by 3.2 log2. In addition, one monoclonal antibody (MAb) 2-5C-6F had good neutralizing activity against vvIBDV but could not well recognize the epizootic varIBDV. The epitope of the MAb 2-5C-6F was identified, and two mutations of G318D and D323Q of capsid protein VP2 occurred in the epizootic varIBDV compared to vvIBDV. Subsequently, the indirect immunofluorescence assay based on serial mutants of VP2 protein verified that residue mutations 318 and 323 influenced the recognition of the epizootic varIBDV and vvIBDV by the MAb 2-5C-6F, which was further confirmed by the serial rescued mutated virus. The following cross-neutralizing assay directed by MAb showed residue mutations 318 and 323 also affected the neutralization of the virus. Further data also showed that the mutations of residues 318 and 323 of VP2 significantly affected the neutralization of the IBDV by antiserum, which might be deeply involved in the immune circumvention of the epizootic varIBDV in the vaccinated flock. This study is significant for the comprehensive prevention and control of the emerging varIBDV

Comparison of Free Total Amino Acid Compositions and Their Functional Classifications in 13 Wild Edible Mushrooms

Thirteen popular wild edible mushroom species in Yunnan Province, Boletus bicolor, Boletus speciosus, Boletus sinicus, Boletus craspedius, Boletus griseus, Boletus ornatipes, Xerocomus, Suillus placidus, Boletinus pinetorus, Tricholoma terreum, Tricholomopsis lividipileata, Termitomyces microcarpus, and Amanita hemibapha, were analyzed for their free amino acid compositions by online pre-column derivazation reversed phase high-performance liquid chromatography (RP-HPLC) analysis. Twenty free amino acids, aspartic acid, glutamic acid, serine, glycine, alanine, praline, cysteine, valine, methionine, phenylalanine, isoleucine, leucine, lysine, histidine, threonine, asparagines, glutamine, arginine, tyrosine, and tryptophan, were determined. The total free amino acid (TAA) contents ranged from 1462.6 mg/100 g in B. craspedius to 13,106.2 mg/100 g in T. microcarpus. The different species showed distinct free amino acid profiles. The ratio of total essential amino acids (EAA) to TAA was 0.13–0.41. All of the analyzed species showed high contents of hydrophobic amino acids, at 33%–54% of TAA. Alanine, cysteine, glutamine, and glutamic acid were among the most abundant amino acids present in all species. The results showed that the analyzed mushrooms possessed significant free amino acid contents, which may be important compounds contributing to the typical mushroom taste, nutritional value, and potent antioxidant properties of these wild edible mushrooms. Furthermore, the principal component analysis (PCA) showed that the accumulative variance contribution rate of the first four principal components reached 94.39%. Cluster analysis revealed EAA composition and content might be an important parameter to separate the mushroom species, and T. microcarpus and A. hemibapha showed remarkable EAA content among the 13 species

A baseline study of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons distribution, source and ecological risk in Zhanjiang mangrove wetlands, South China

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are widespread environmental contaminants and pose a severe threat to human health. Here, 38 surface sediment samples collected from the Gaoqiao mangrove wetland in Zhanjiang, south China, were analyzed to determine 16 Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) priority PAHs. Total PAHs concentrations ranged from 33.5 µg/kg to 404.8 µg/kg with an average of 147.7 ± 77.7 µg/kg, inferring a moderate pollution level. Three and four-ring compounds dominated the PAHs composition patterns. Significant positive correlations were observed between the PAHs and the physicochemical properties of the sediments. According to the characteristic molecular ratio method, PAHs in sediments were mainly derived from combustion sources, including the incomplete combustion of liquid fossil fuels, grass, wood, and coal. The result based on the PMF model indicates that the primary combustion sources of PAHs are coal combustion, diesel-powered vehicles, biomass combustion and gasoline-powered vehicles, with a share of 39.01%, 25.21%, 12.72% and 10.48%, respectively. The petrogenic source contributes 12.58% PAHs to the sediments. The mean effects range median quotient (m-ERM-Q) and toxic equivalent method (TEQ) indicate a low comprehensive ecological risk of PAHs in the study area. Still, the evaluation results of effects range low (ERL) suggest that PAHs in the sediment would occasionally have adverse biological effects. Therefore, this situation demands attention and calls for protection strategies in the processes of urbanization and industrialization in south China

Human activity has increasingly affected recent carbon accumulation in Zhanjiang mangrove wetland, South China

Summary: Mangrove wetlands are an important component of blue carbon (C) ecosystems, although the anthropogenic impact on organic C accumulation rate (OCAR) in mangrove wetlands is not yet clear. Three sediment cores were collected from Zhanjiang Gaoqiao Mangrove Reserve in Southern China, dated by 210Pb and 137Cs, and physico-chemical parameters measured. Results show that the OCARs in mangroves and grasslands have significantly increased by 4.4 and 1.3 times, respectively, since 1950, which is consistent with the transformation of organic C sources and the increase of sedimentation rate. This increment is due to increased soil erosion and nutrient enrichment caused by land use change and the discharge of fertilizer runoff and aquaculture wastewater. This study provides clear evidence for understanding the changes in organic C accumulation processes during the Anthropocene and is conducive to promoting the realization of C peak and neutrality targets