A Note On Earnings Forecast Source Superiority

We examine the forecast accuracy of Value Line analysts relative to the Brown-Rozeff (100)X(011)4 ARIMA model.  We find that for a surprising percentage (35-41%) of our sample of small firms that time series-based earnings per share predictions are more accurate than those obtained from The Value Line Investment Survey.  Further, we document exploitable characteristics of each subgroup that are associated with forecast origin.  In those instances where the seasonal, univariate earnings forecast model identified by Brown and Rozeff (1979) produces more accurate forecasts than Value Line, we find significant differences in firm size, degree of diversification, magnitudes of the autoregressive and seasonal moving-average parameters, residual standard errors, and magnitude of the Ljung-Box Q-statistic.  We use probit regressions to identify ex ante those firms likely to be accurately forecast by each source.  We achieve a marginal improvement in forecast accuracy, which suggests there is potential for using ex ante decision rules to improve forecast accuracy.&nbsp

Structural properties of epitaxial {\alpha}-U thin films on Ti, Zr, W and Nb

Thin layers of orthorhombic uranium ({\alpha}-U) have been grown onto buffered sapphire substrates by d.c. magnetron sputtering, resulting in the discovery of new epitaxial matches to Ti(00.1) and Zr(00.1) surfaces. These systems have been characterised by X-ray diffraction and reflectivity and the optimal deposition temperatures have been determined. More advanced structural characterisation of the known Nb(110) and W(110) buffered {\alpha}-U systems has also been carried out, showing that past reports of the domain structures of the U layers are incomplete. The ability of this low symmetry structure to form crystalline matches across a range of crystallographic templates highlights the complexity of U metal epitaxy and points naturally toward studies of the low temperature electronic properties of {\alpha}-U as a function of epitaxial strain

The learning experiences of health and social care paraprofessionals on a foundation degree

Foundation degrees have been developed in the UK as a means of meeting the learning needs of paraprofessionals in health and social care and the services within which they work in a cost-effective fashion. Workplace learning is an intrinsic component to these degrees. Taking a socio-cultural perspective, this paper examines how the students' workplaces, life circumstances and sense of career trajectory shaped their learning experience and motivation. A small-scale evaluation study, using semi-structured interviews, focused on the learning experiences of a group of paraprofessionals enrolled in a foundation degree in health and social care. Data revealed fragmented employment patterns, underpinned by consistent vocational drives. While the study resonated with vocation, participants were ambivalent or lacked information about career progression. Workplace conditions, relationships and limited time shaped learning and coping strategies. A strategic and focused approach to student learning is required and includes attention to career pathways, workforce development strategy, the requirements of a range of stakeholders, workplace supervision and support for learning

Topic-Relevance Map: Visualization for Improving Search Result Comprehension

Peer reviewe

Use of Microzonation to Site Facility on Low Angle Thrust and Associated Fault Bend Folding

The campus of the College of the Redwoods is located completely within the Little Salmon Fault Zone, designated by the State of California as an active fault. The College has been extensively investigated for fault rupture and other seismic hazards in 1989, 1993, 1997, 1998, and 1999. The Little Salmon Fault Zone bounds the College and consists of two main northwest-striking, northeastdipping, low-angle thrusts. The west splay daylights along the southwest edge of the campus and projects beneath it. A recurrence interval of 268 years and slip rate of 5+/-3 mm/yr is estimated by CDMG. Individual dip-slip displacements along the west trace are reported to be 12 to 15 feet (3.6 to 4.5 m). Movement on the Little Salmon fault (LSF) is accompanied by growth of broad asymmetric folds in the upper thrust sheet resulting in surface rupture, localized uplift and discreet fault-bend fold axial surfaces. College of the Redwoods is located approximately 8 miles (13 km) south of Eureka and 25 miles (40 km) north-northeast of Cape Mendocino and the Mendocino Triple Junction (MTJ) in northern California. The \u27MTJ is the point of transition fi-om strike-slip faulting of the San Andreas transform system to low-angle thrust faulting and folding associated with the convergent margin of the Cascadia Subduction Zone. Campus infrastructure is located along the base of the Humboldt Hill Anticline (HHA), a major faultbend fold of the Cascadia fold and thrust belt. A new learning resource center (LRC) is proposed for a location 400 feet (120 m) northeast of where the west trace of the LSF daylights and 200 feet (60 m) above the low-angle fault plane. Building setback and design recommendations to mitigate for both fault rupture hazards and fault-generated folding hazards are presented

Probabilistic Estimation of Site Specific Fault Displacements

The College of the Redwoods (CR) located near Eureka, California would like to upgrade a series of existing buildings that are unfortunately located on secondary faults associated with the active Little Salmon Fault (LSF) zone. In the early 1990’s a deterministic value of the maximum dip-slip displacement that had occurred on one of these secondary faults located beneath the southeast building corner of the former library was measured to be 1.7 feet. This displacement was resolved into approximately 1.5 feet horizontal offset and 0.8 feet of vertical offset, based on the secondary fault plane dip. Geologically, it has not been possible to establish the actual dates of the occurrence of the displacements on the observed faults, therefore it was assumed that they all had occurred within the last 11,000 years. The structural engineer for the project has indicated that it was not possible to design for the observed ground displacement of 1.7 feet. This limited study was undertaken to assess the variation of ground displacements that were observed over the area of ground occupied by CR’s Administration, Science, and former Library buildings. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the reasonableness of using a deterministically determined maximum value of displacement in estimating, and designing mitigations for, the structural response, or whether a probabilistic approach could be utilized. The only data available within the limited time frame allowed for the study was from a series of trench logs made as part of a project for locating building sites on the campus in the early 1990’s. As a first step the frequency distributions of both horizontal and vertical displacements located in a volume of soil comprising the area occupied by the above buildings to a depth of 14 feet were examined. The 14 feet was the maximum depth of the trenches used to provide data for the study. Probability density functions (PDF) versus displacements were developed based on the frequency distributions. The area under the PDF curves between given displacement intervals represents the probability of occurrence (POC) of that displacement. A cumulative probability of occurrence for a displacement interval can be determined by adding the individual POC’s. Based on this it was estimated that a horizontal displacement of ≤ 1.0 foot has a probability of 89% of occurring in the next 11,000 years at the site. In contrast, a vertical displacement of ≤ 1.0 foot has a probability of 88% probability of occurrence

Surveillance of RNase P, PMMoV, and CrAssphage in wastewater as indicators of human fecal concentration across urban sewer neighborhoods, Louisville, Kentucky

Wastewater surveillance has been widely used as a supplemental method to track the community infection levels of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2. A gap exists in standardized reporting for fecal indicator concentrations, which can be used to calibrate the primary outcome concentrations from wastewater monitoring for use in epidemiological models. To address this, measurements of fecal indicator concentration among wastewater samples collected from sewers and treatment centers in four counties of Kentucky (N = 650) were examined. Results from the untransformed wastewater data over 4 months of sampling indicated that the fecal indicator concentration of human ribonuclease P (RNase P) ranged from 5.1 × 101 to 1.15 × 106 copies/ml, pepper mild mottle virus (PMMoV) ranged from 7.23 × 103 to 3.53 × 107 copies/ml, and cross-assembly phage (CrAssphage) ranged from 9.69×103 to 1.85×108 copies/ml. The results showed both regional and temporal variability. If fecal indicators are used as normalization factors, knowing the daily sewer system flow of the sample location may matter more than rainfall. RNase P, while it may be suitable as an internal amplification and sample adequacy control, has less utility than PMMoV and CrAssphage as a fecal indicator in wastewater samples when working at different sizes of catchment area. The choice of fecal indicator will impact the results of surveillance studies using this indicator to represent fecal load. Our results contribute broadly to an applicable standard normalization factor and assist in interpreting wastewater data in epidemiological modeling and monitoring

Benchmark Evaluation of True Single Molecular Sequencing to Determine Cystic Fibrosis Airway Microbiome Diversity

Cystic fibrosis (CF) is an autosomal recessive disease associated with recurrent lung infections that can lead to morbidity and mortality. The impact of antibiotics for treatment of acute pulmonary exacerbations on the CF airway microbiome remains unclear with prior studies giving conflicting results and being limited by their use of 16S ribosomal RNA sequencing. Our primary objective was to validate the use of true single molecular sequencing (tSMS) and PathoScope in the analysis of the CF airway microbiome. Three control samples were created with differing amounts of Burkholderia cepacia, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, and Prevotella melaninogenica, three common bacteria found in cystic fibrosis lungs. Paired sputa were also obtained from three study participants with CF before and \u3e6 days after initiation of antibiotics. Antibiotic resistant B. cepacia and P. aeruginosa were identified in concurrently obtained respiratory cultures. Direct sequencing was performed using tSMS, and filtered reads were aligned to reference genomes from NCBI using PathoScope and Kraken and unique clade-specific marker genes using MetaPhlAn. A total of 180-518K of 6-12 million filtered reads were aligned for each sample. Detection of known pathogens in control samples was most successful using PathoScope. In the CF sputa, alpha diversity measures varied based on the alignment method used, but similar trends were found between pre- and post-antibiotic samples. PathoScope outperformed Kraken and MetaPhlAn in our validation study of artificial bacterial community controls and also has advantages over Kraken and MetaPhlAn of being able to determine bacterial strains and the presence of fungal organisms. PathoScope can be confidently used when evaluating metagenomic data to determine CF airway microbiome diversity