A Specification Language for the WIDE Workflow Model

This paper presents a workflow specification language developed in the WIDE project. The language provides a rich organisation model, an information model including presentation details, and a sophisticated process model. Workflow application developers should find the language a useful and compact means to capture and investigate design details. Workflow system developers would discover the language a good vehicle to study the interaction between different features as well as facilitate the development of more advanced features. Others would attain a better understanding of the workflow paradigm and could use the language ms a basis of evaluation for the functionality of workflow systems

The Stock Market Valuation of Research and Development Expenditures

We examine whether stock prices fully reflect the value of firms' intangible assets, focusing on research and development (R&D). Since intangible assets are not reported on financial statements under current U.S. accounting standards and R&D spending is expensed, the valuation problem may be especially challenging. Nonetheless we find that historically the stock returns of firms doing R&D on average matches the returns on firms with no R&D. For companies engaged in R&D, high R&D intensity has a distinctive effect on returns for two groups of stocks. Within the set of growth stocks, R&D-intensive stocks tend to out-perform stocks with little or no R&D. Companies with high R&D relative to equity market value (who tend to have poor past returns) show strong signs of mis-pricing. In both cases the market apparently fails to give sufficient credit for firms' R&D investments. Our exploratory investigation of the effects of advertising on returns yields similar results. We also provide evidence that R&D intensity is positively associated with return volatility, everything else equal. Insofar as the association reflects investors' lack of information about firms' R&D activity, increased accounting disclosure may be beneficial.

The Level and Persistence of Growth Rates

Expected long-term earnings growth rates are crucial inputs to valuation models and for cost of capital estimates. We analyze historical long-term growth rates across a broad cross-section of stocks using several operating performance indicators. We test whether growth persists, and whether it is forecastable. Cases of very high growth have occurred, but are relatively rare. There is scant persistence in growth beyond chance, and limited ability to identify firms with high future long-term growth. IBES forecasts are too optimistic, and have low predictive power for long-term growth. Regressions using a variety of predictors confirm the low predictability in growth. Valuations that assume persistently high growth over prolonged periods rest on shaky foundations.

On Mutual Fund Investment Styles

We provide an exploratory investigation of mutual funds' investment styles. Funds' styles tend to cluster around a broad market benchmark. When funds deviate from the benchmark they are more likely to favor growth stocks with good past performance. There is some consistency in styles, although funds with poor past performance are more likely to change styles. Some evidence suggests that growth funds have better style-adjusted performance than value funds. The results are not sensitive to style identification procedure, but an approach based on fund portfolio characteristics performs better in predicting future fund returns.

Information, Trading and Stock Returns: Lessons from Dually-Listed Securities

This paper compares the intra-day patterns on the NYSE and AMEX of volatility, trading volume and bid-ask spreads for European dually- listed stocks, Japanese dually-listed stocks also listed in London, and Japanese dually-listed stocks not listed in London with American stocks of comparable average trading volume and volatility. It is shown that the intra-day patterns for these stocks are remarkably similar even though the public information flows differ markedly across these stocks during the trading day. In the morning, Japanese stocks have the greatest volatility and volume, followed by European stocks and American stocks. These rankings are reversed in the afternoon. We argue that these patterns are consistent with markets reacting to the overnight accumulation of public information which is greatest for Japanese stock and smallest for American stocks and inconsistent with the view that early morning volatility can be attributed to monopolistic specialist behavior.

Risk and Return on Real Estate: Evidence from Equity REITs

We analyze monthly returns on an equally-weighted index of 18 to 23 equity (real property) real estate investment trusts (REITs) that were traded on major stock exchanges over the 1973-87 period. We employ a multifactor Arbitrage Pricing Model using prespecified macroeconomic factors. We also test whether equity REIT returns are related to changes in the discount on closed-end stock funds, which seems plausible given the closed-end nature of REITs. Three factors, and the percentage change in the discount on closed-end stock funds, consistently drive equity REIT returns: unexpected inflation and changes in the risk and term structures of interest rates. The impacts of these variables on equity REIT returns is around 60 percent of the impacts on corporate stock returns generally. As expected, the impacts are greater for more heavily levered REITs than for less levered REITs. Real estate, at least as measured by the return performance of equity REITs, is less risky than stocks generally, but does not offer a superior risk-adjusted return and is not a hedge against unexpected inflation.

Under-detection of pain in elderly nursing home residents with moderate to severe dementia

AbstractBackground/PurposeElderly patients who are cognitively impaired tend to have a decreased ability to communicate and report pain, which results in the under-detection and under-treatment of pain. This study aimed to describe the prevalence of pain in elderly patients with moderate to severe dementia who were residing in nursing homes and to determine the factors associated with pain.MethodsElderly patients older than 60 years of age with Mini-mental State Examination (MMSE) scores of <20 who were resident in three selected nursing homes were recruited. Demographic data and comorbidity were recorded. Information about treatment with analgesic drugs, physical restraints, the presence of depression, and behavioral disturbances was collected from medical records and from health care workers. Pain was assessed using the Chinese version of the Pain Assessment in Advanced Dementia Scale (PAINAD-C).ResultsA total of 309 residents with a mean ± SD age of 85 ± 7.5 years and a mean ± SD MMSE score of 9.6 ± 6.3 were included in the study. A total of 61.5% (190) of patients experienced pain as defined by a PAINAD-C score of ≥2. Only 30.7% (95) of patients were treated with analgesic drugs. Univariate analysis showed that a lower MMSE score, male sex, poor mobility level, treatment with psychotropic drugs, use of physical restraints, presence of physical aggression, and being uncommunicative were associated with pain. The major factors associated with pain were the use of physical restraints [odds ratio (OR) 3.1], the presence of physical aggression (OR 2.55), male sex (OR 2), and poor MMSE score (OR 0.94).ConclusionPain is highly prevalent among nursing home residents with moderate to severe dementia and is associated with the use of restraints. However, only half of the patients in this study were treated with analgesic drugs. An improvement in the caregivers' knowledge of pain assessment together with the provision of adequate treatment for pain is necessary in the care of these groups of patients with dementia

Development of characterisation and quality potency assays for human mesenchymal stem cells

Regenerative medicine and cell therapies hold great potential to treat a variety of medical conditions. Product characterisation of these therapies is particularly difficult as they pose regulatory challenges due to donor heterogeneity and the lack of standardised lot release tests that can reliably predict in vivo function. Human mesenchymal stem cells (hMSCs), also called multipotent stem cells or mesenchymal stromal cells, are a viable option in cell therapies due to their immunosuppressive and pro-angiogenic functions. Currently there are no standardised methods or potency assays to quantify these properties. To address this, five individual hMSCs lines from different donors were created and characterised based upon growth rate, differentiation capability and extracellular surface protein expression. A novel multiparameter flow cytometry method to characterise the cells based upon extracellular surface markers was developed that supports high-throughput and high-content analyses. Three candidate lines were taken forward and assessed in multiple in vitro bioassays that examined the hMSC immunosuppressive response to a defined inflammatory environment, effect on T-cell proliferation, and effect on a mixed lymphocyte population. Next, the angiogenic properties were assessed using human umbilical vein endothelial cells (HUVECs) tube formation as a model for cardiac regeneration. This involved utilising automated time lapse microscopy techniques coupled with image analysis software to quantify endothelial to tube formation. Further analysis of the hMSC secretome revealed differences in the levels of pro-angiogenic cytokines such as vascular endothelial growth factor, hepatocyte growth factor and IL-8. Significant differences in angiogenic potency were found between the hMSC lines. This thesis highlights the need to develop specific assays that reflect the intended clinical action. Taken together, these quantitative approaches provide valuable tools to measure hMSC quality and potency, and supports continued efforts to improve characterisation strategies for cellular therapies