Association of trial registration with the results and conclusions of published trials of new oncology drugs

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Registration of clinical trials has been introduced largely to reduce bias toward statistically significant results in the trial literature. Doubts remain about whether advance registration alone is an adequate measure to reduce selective publication, selective outcome reporting, and biased design. One of the first areas of medicine in which registration was widely adopted was oncology, although the bulk of registered oncology trials remain unpublished. The net influence of registration on the literature remains untested. This study compares the prevalence of favorable results and conclusions among published reports of registered and unregistered randomized controlled trials of new oncology drugs.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We conducted a cross-sectional study of published original research articles reporting clinical trials evaluating the efficacy of drugs newly approved for antimalignancy indications by the United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) from 2000 through 2005. Drugs receiving first-time approval for indications in oncology were identified using the FDA web site and Thomson Centerwatch. Relevant trial reports were identified using PubMed and the Cochrane Library. Evidence of advance trial registration was obtained by a search of clinicaltrials.gov, WHO, ISRCTN, NCI-PDQ trial databases and corporate trial registries, as well as articles themselves. Data on blinding, results for primary outcomes, and author conclusions were extracted independently by two coders. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression identified associations between favorable results and conclusions and independent variables including advance registration, study design characteristics, and industry sponsorship.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Of 137 original research reports from 115 distinct randomized trials assessing 25 newly approved drugs for treating cancer, the 54 publications describing data from trials registered prior to publication were as likely to report statistically significant efficacy results and reach conclusions favoring the test drug (for results, OR = 1.77; 95% CI = 0.87 to 3.61) as reports of trials not registered in advance. In multivariate analysis, reports of prior registered trials were again as likely to favor the test drug (OR = 1.29; 95% CI = 0.54 to 3.08); large sample sizes and surrogate outcome measures were statistically significant predictors of favorable efficacy results at p < 0.05. Subgroup analysis of the main reports from each trial (n = 115) similarly indicated that registered trials were as likely to report results favoring the test drug as trials not registered in advance (OR = 1.11; 95% CI = 0.44 to 2.80), and also that large trials and trials with nonstringent blinding were significantly more likely to report results favoring the test drug.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Trial registration alone, without a requirement for full reporting of research results, does not appear to reduce a bias toward results and conclusions favoring new drugs in the clinical trials literature. Our findings support the inclusion of full results reporting in trial registers, as well as protocols to allow assessment of whether results have been completely reported.</p

Methodological considerations for a randomised controlled trial of podiatry care in rheumatoid arthritis: lessons from an exploratory trial

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Whilst evidence exists to support the use of single treatments such as orthoses and footwear, the effectiveness of podiatry-led care as a complex intervention for patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) related foot problems is unknown. The aim of this study was to undertake an exploratory randomised controlled parallel arm clinical trial (RheumAFooT) to inform the design and implementation of a definitive trial and to understand the potential benefits of this care.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Patients with a definite diagnosis of RA, stable drug management 3 months prior to entry, and a current history of foot problems (pain, deformity, stiffness, skin or nail lesions, or footwear problems) were recruited from a hospital outpatient rheumatology clinic and randomised to receive 12 months of podiatry treatment or no care. The primary outcome was change in foot health status using the impairment/footwear (LFIS_IF) and activity limitation/participation restriction (LFIS_AP) subscales of the Leeds Foot Impact Scale. Disease Activity Score (DAS), Health Assessment Questionnaire (HAQ) score and walking speed (m/s) were also recorded.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Of the 80 patients identified, 64 patients were eligible to participate in the pilot and 34 were recruited. 16 patients were randomised to receive podiatry led foot care and 18 received no care. Against a backdrop of stable disease (DAS and HAQ scores), there was a statistically significant between group difference in the change in foot health status for foot impairment (LFIS_IF) but not activity/participation (LFIS_AP) or function (walking speed) over 12 months. In the podiatry arm, 1 patient declined treatment following randomisation (did not want additional hospital visits) and 3 self-withdrew (lost to follow-up). Patients received an average of 3 consultations for assessment and treatment comprising routine care for skin and nail lesions (n = 3), foot orthoses (n = 9), footwear referral to the orthotist (n = 5), and ultrasound guided intra-articular steroid injection (n = 1).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>In this exploratory trial patients were difficult to recruit (stable drug management and co-morbid disease) and retain (lack of benefit/additional treatment burden) but overall the intervention was safe (no adverse reactions). Twelve months of podiatry care maintained but did not improve foot health status. These observations are important for the design and implementation of a definitive randomised controlled trial.</p> <p>Trial Registration</p> <p>ISRCTN: 01982076</p

An empirical model for probabilistic decadal prediction: global attribution and regional hindcasts

Empirical models, designed to predict surface variables over seasons to decades ahead, provide useful benchmarks for comparison against the performance of dynamical forecast systems; they may also be employable as predictive tools for use by climate services in their own right. A new global empirical decadal prediction system is presented, based on a multiple linear regression approach designed to produce probabilistic output for comparison against dynamical models. A global attribution is performed initially to identify the important forcing and predictor components of the model . Ensemble hindcasts of surface air temperature anomaly fields are then generated, based on the forcings and predictors identified as important, under a series of different prediction ‘modes’ and their performance is evaluated. The modes include a real-time setting, a scenario in which future volcanic forcings are prescribed during the hindcasts, and an approach which exploits knowledge of the forced trend. A two-tier prediction system, which uses knowledge of future sea surface temperatures in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, is also tested, but within a perfect knowledge framework. Each mode is designed to identify sources of predictability and uncertainty, as well as investigate different approaches to the design of decadal prediction systems for operational use. It is found that the empirical model shows skill above that of persistence hindcasts for annual means at lead times of up to 10 years ahead in all of the prediction modes investigated. It is suggested that hindcasts which exploit full knowledge of the forced trend due to increasing greenhouse gases throughout the hindcast period can provide more robust estimates of model bias for the calibration of the empirical model in an operational setting. The two-tier system shows potential for improved real-time prediction, given the assumption that skilful predictions of large-scale modes of variability are available. The empirical model framework has been designed with enough flexibility to facilitate further developments, including the prediction of other surface variables and the ability to incorporate additional predictors within the model that are shown to contribute significantly to variability at the local scale. It is also semi-operational in the sense that forecasts have been produced for the coming decade and can be updated when additional data becomes available

Methodological quality of a systematic review on physical therapy for temporomandibular disorders: influence of hand search and quality scales

The validity of a systematic review depends on completeness of identifying randomised clinical trials (RCTs) and the quality of the included RCTs. The aim of this study was to analyse the effects of hand search on the number of identified RCTs and of four quality lists on the outcome of quality assessment of RCTs evaluating the effect of physical therapy on temporomandibular disorders. In addition, we investigated the association between publication year and the methodological quality of these RCTs. Cochrane, Medline and Embase databases were searched electronically. The references of the included studies were checked for additional trials. Studies not electronically identified were labelled as “obtained by means of hand search”. The included RCTs (69) concerning physical therapy for temporomandibular disorders were assessed using four different quality lists: the Delphi list, the Jadad list, the Megens & Harris list and the Risk of Bias list. The association between the quality scores and the year of publication were calculated. After electronic database search, hand search resulted in an additional 17 RCTs (25%). The mean quality score of the RCTs, expressed as a percentage of the maximum score, was low to moderate and varied from 35.1% for the Delphi list to 54.3% for the Risk of Bias list. The agreement among the four quality assessment lists, calculated by the Interclass Correlation Coefficient, was 0.603 (95% CI, 0.389; 0.749). The Delphi list scored significantly lower than the other lists. The Risk of Bias list scored significantly higher than the Jadad list. A moderate association was found between year of publication and scores on the Delphi list (r = 0.50), the Jadad list (r = 0.33) and the Megens & Harris list (r = 0.43)

Choosing a control intervention for a randomised clinical trial

BACKGROUND: Randomised controlled clinical trials are performed to resolve uncertainty concerning comparator interventions. Appropriate acknowledgment of uncertainty enables the concurrent achievement of two goals : the acquisition of valuable scientific knowledge and an optimum treatment choice for the patient-participant. The ethical recruitment of patients requires the presence of clinical equipoise. This involves the appropriate choice of a control intervention, particularly when unapproved drugs or innovative interventions are being evaluated. DISCUSSION: We argue that the choice of a control intervention should be supported by a systematic review of the relevant literature and, where necessary, solicitation of the informed beliefs of clinical experts through formal surveys and publication of the proposed trial's protocol. SUMMARY: When clinical equipoise is present, physicians may confidently propose trial enrollment to their eligible patients as an act of therapeutic beneficence

Associations of Early Systolic Blood Pressure Control and Outcome after Thrombolysis-Eligible Acute Ischemic Stroke: Results from the ENCHANTED Study

Background and Purpose: In thrombolysis-eligible patients with acute ischemic stroke, there is uncertainty over the most appropriate systolic blood pressure (SBP) lowering profile that provides an optimal balance of potential benefit (functional recovery) and harm (intracranial hemorrhage). We aimed to determine relationships of SBP parameters and outcomes in thrombolyzed acute ischemic stroke patients. Methods: Post hoc analyzes of the ENCHANTED (Enhanced Control of Hypertension and Thrombolysis Stroke Study), a partial-factorial trial of thrombolysis-eligible and treated acute ischemic stroke patients with high SBP (150-180 mm Hg) assigned to low-dose (0.6 mg/kg) or standard-dose (0.9 mg/kg) alteplase and intensive (target SBP, 130-140 mm Hg) or guideline-recommended (target SBP <180 mm Hg) treatment. All patients were followed up for functional status and serious adverse events to 90 days. Logistic regression models were used to analyze 3 SBP summary measures postrandomization: attained (mean), variability (SD) in 1-24 hours, and magnitude of reduction in 1 hour. The primary outcome was a favorable shift on the modified Rankin Scale. The key safety outcome was any intracranial hemorrhage. Results: Among 4511 included participants (mean age 67 years, 38% female, 65% Asian) lower attained SBP and smaller SBP variability were associated with favorable shift on the modified Rankin Scale (per 10 mm Hg increase: odds ratio, 0.76 [95% CI, 0.71-0.82]; P<0.001 and 0.86 [95% CI, 0.76-0.98]; P=0.025) respectively, but not for magnitude of SBP reduction (0.98, [0.93-1.04]; P=0.564). Odds of intracranial hemorrhage was associated with higher attained SBP and greater SBP variability (1.18 [1.06-1.31]; P=0.002 and 1.34 [1.11-1.62]; P=0.002) but not with magnitude of SBP reduction (1.05 [0.98-1.14]; P=0.184). Conclusions: Attaining early and consistent low levels in SBP <140 mm Hg, even as low as 110 to 120 mm Hg, over 24 hours is associated with better outcomes in thrombolyzed acute ischemic stroke patients. Registration: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT01422616

Restoring Coastal Plants to Improve Global Carbon Storage: Reaping What We Sow

Long-term carbon capture and storage (CCS) is currently considered a viable strategy for mitigating rising levels of atmospheric CO2 and associated impacts of global climate change. Until recently, the significant below-ground CCS capacity of coastal vegetation such as seagrasses, salt marshes, and mangroves has largely gone unrecognized in models of global carbon transfer. However, this reservoir of natural, free, and sustainable carbon storage potential is increasingly jeopardized by alarming trends in coastal habitat loss, totalling 30–50% of global abundance over the last century alone. Human intervention to restore lost habitats is a potentially powerful solution to improve natural rates of global CCS, but data suggest this approach is unlikely to substantially improve long-term CCS unless current restoration efforts are increased to an industrial scale. Failure to do so raises the question of whether resources currently used for expensive and time-consuming restoration projects would be more wisely invested in arresting further habitat loss and encouraging natural recovery

Differential HMG-CoA lyase expression in human tissues provides clues about 3-hydroxy-3-methylglutaric aciduria

3-Hydroxy-3-methylglutaric aciduria is a rare human autosomal recessive disorder caused by deficiency of 3-hydroxy-3-methylglutaryl CoA lyase (HL). This mitochondrial enzyme catalyzes the common final step of leucine degradation and ketogenesis. Acute symptoms include vomiting, seizures and lethargy, accompanied by metabolic acidosis and hypoketotic hypoglycaemia. Such organs as the liver, brain, pancreas, and heart can also be involved. However, the pathophysiology of this disease is only partially understood. We measured mRNA levels, protein expression and enzyme activity of human HMG-CoA lyase from liver, kidney, pancreas, testis, heart, skeletal muscle, and brain. Surprisingly, the pancreas is, after the liver, the tissue with most HL activity. However, in heart and adult brain, HL activity was not detected in the mitochondrial fraction. These findings contribute to our understanding of the enzyme function and the consequences of its deficiency and suggest the need for assessment of pancreatic damage in these patients