A Nonparametric Ensemble Binary Classifier and its Statistical Properties

In this work, we propose an ensemble of classification trees (CT) and artificial neural networks (ANN). Several statistical properties including universal consistency and upper bound of an important parameter of the proposed classifier are shown. Numerical evidence is also provided using various real life data sets to assess the performance of the model. Our proposed nonparametric ensemble classifier doesn't suffer from the `curse of dimensionality' and can be used in a wide variety of feature selection cum classification problems. Performance of the proposed model is quite better when compared to many other state-of-the-art models used for similar situations

A novel distribution-free hybrid regression model for manufacturing process efficiency improvement

This work is motivated by a particular problem of a modern paper manufacturing industry, in which maximum efficiency of the fiber-filler recovery process is desired. A lot of unwanted materials along with valuable fibers and fillers come out as a by-product of the paper manufacturing process and mostly goes as waste. The job of an efficient Krofta supracell is to separate the unwanted materials from the valuable ones so that fibers and fillers can be collected from the waste materials and reused in the manufacturing process. The efficiency of Krofta depends on several crucial process parameters and monitoring them is a difficult proposition. To solve this problem, we propose a novel hybridization of regression trees (RT) and artificial neural networks (ANN), hybrid RT-ANN model, to solve the problem of low recovery percentage of the supracell. This model is used to achieve the goal of improving supracell efficiency, viz., gain in percentage recovery. In addition, theoretical results for the universal consistency of the proposed model are given with the optimal value of a vital model parameter. Experimental findings show that the proposed hybrid RT-ANN model achieves higher accuracy in predicting Krofta recovery percentage than other conventional regression models for solving the Krofta efficiency problem. This work will help the paper manufacturing company to become environmentally friendly with minimal ecological damage and improved waste recovery

Bayesian Neural Tree Models for Nonparametric Regression

Frequentist and Bayesian methods differ in many aspects, but share some basic optimal properties. In real-life classification and regression problems, situations exist in which a model based on one of the methods is preferable based on some subjective criterion. Nonparametric classification and regression techniques, such as decision trees and neural networks, have frequentist (classification and regression trees (CART) and artificial neural networks) as well as Bayesian (Bayesian CART and Bayesian neural networks) approaches to learning from data. In this work, we present two hybrid models combining the Bayesian and frequentist versions of CART and neural networks, which we call the Bayesian neural tree (BNT) models. Both models exploit the architecture of decision trees and have lesser number of parameters to tune than advanced neural networks. Such models can simultaneously perform feature selection and prediction, are highly flexible, and generalize well in settings with a limited number of training observations. We study the consistency of the proposed models, and derive the optimal value of an important model parameter. We also provide illustrative examples using a wide variety of real-life regression data sets

Assessing Smell Alteration as Clinical Feature of COVID-19: A Descriptive Study in a Rural Based Tertiary Care COVID Hospital

Introduction COVID-19 is an ongoing viral pandemic and a very contagious disease. Other than common symptoms like fever, cough and malaise; alteration in smell and taste perception may be the presenting symptoms in a significant number of patients infected with COVID-19. Materials and Methods Presence of smell alteration assessed among 150 mild to moderate COVID-19 positive patients admitted at our COVID hospital as well as 150 COVID-19 negative patients in May-June, 2021. Use and throw smell cards were used to detect smell alteration for all. Symptom onset and its resolution were noted. Smell alteration was also evaluated in different age group and gender. Results 81 (54%) patients among 150 COVID positive cases had smell alteration compared to 9 (6%) patients among non-COVID arm (p value <0.0001). Overall smell alteration was more prevalent among male COVID patients. Hyposmia is more prevalent among younger age group compared to anosmia, which is more among older side. Olfactory dysfunction is seen to be developed at presentation or within 5 days from starting of infection with other symptoms. More than 90% patients regained smell perception within two months post infection. Conclusion 54% COVID positive patients reported smell loss either at presentation or within 5 days of infection. Using smell cards for smell assessment and being cautious about smell alteration as early symptom helps us to diagnose COVID-19 early

Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations. METHODS The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds. FINDINGS The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles. INTERPRETATION Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Radial basis neural tree model for improving waste recovery process in a paper industry

In this article, we propose a novel hybridization of regression trees (RT) and radial basis function networks (RBFN), namely, radial basis neural tree (RBNT) model, for waste recovery process improvement in the paper industry. As a by-product of the paper manufacturing process, a lot of waste along with valuable fibers and fillers come out from the paper machine. The waste recovery process (WRP) involves separating the unwanted materials from the valuable ones so that the recovered fibers and fillers can be further reused in the production process. This job is done by fiber-filler recovery equipment (FFRE). The efficiency of FFRE depends on several crucial process parameters and monitoring them is a difficult proposition. The proposed model can be useful to find the essential parameters from the set of available data and perform prediction task to improve waste recovery process efficiency. An idea of parameter optimization along with regularity conditions for the universal consistency of the proposed model are given. The proposed model has the advantages of easy interpretability and excellent performance when applied to the FFRE efficiency improvement problem. Improved waste recovery will help the industry to become environmentally friendly with less ecological damage apart from being cost-effective

A Critical Study on Stability Measures of Feature Selection with a Novel Extension of Lustgarten Index

Stability of feature selection algorithm refers to its robustness to the perturbations of the training set, parameter settings or initialization. A stable feature selection algorithm is crucial for identifying the relevant feature subset of meaningful and interpretable features which is extremely important in the task of knowledge discovery. Though there are many stability measures reported in the literature for evaluating the stability of feature selection, none of them follows all the requisite properties of a stability measure. Among them, the Kuncheva index and its modifications, are widely used in practical problems. In this work, the merits and limitations of the Kuncheva index and its existing modifications (Lustgarten, Wald, nPOG/nPOGR, Nogueira) are studied and analysed with respect to the requisite properties of stability measure. One more limitation of the most recent modified similarity measure, Nogueira’s measure, has been pointed out. Finally, corrections to Lustgarten’s measure have been proposed to define a new modified stability measure that satisfies the desired properties and overcomes the limitations of existing popular similarity based stability measures. The effectiveness of the newly modified Lustgarten’s measure has been evaluated with simple toy experiments