Polling bias and undecided voter allocations: US Presidential elections, 2004 - 2016

Accounting for undecided and uncertain voters is a challenging issue for predicting election results from public opinion polls. Undecided voters typify the uncertainty of swing voters in polls but are often ignored or allocated to each candidate in a simple, deterministic manner. Historically this may have been adequate because the undecided were comparatively small enough to assume that they do not affect the relative proportions of the decided voters. However, in the presence of high numbers of undecided voters, these static rules may in fact bias election predictions from election poll authors and meta-poll analysts. In this paper, we examine the effect of undecided voters in the 2016 US presidential election to the previous three presidential elections. We show there were a relatively high number of undecided voters over the campaign and on election day, and that the allocation of undecided voters in this election was not consistent with two-party proportional (or even) allocations. We find evidence that static allocation regimes are inadequate for election prediction models and that probabilistic allocations may be superior. We also estimate the bias attributable to polling agencies, often referred to as "house effects".Comment: 32 pages, 9 figures, 6 table

Design guide for high pressure oxygen systems

A repository for critical and important detailed design data and information, hitherto unpublished, along with significant data on oxygen reactivity phenomena with metallic and nonmetallic materials in moderate to very high pressure environments is documented. This data and information provide a ready and easy to use reference for the guidance of designers of propulsion, power, and life support systems for use in space flight. The document is also applicable to designs for industrial and civilian uses of high pressure oxygen systems. The information presented herein are derived from data and design practices involving oxygen usage at pressures ranging from about 20 psia to 8000 psia equal with thermal conditions ranging from room temperatures up to 500 F

C, N, O Abundances in the Most Metal-Poor Damped Lyman alpha Systems

This study focuses on some of the most metal-poor damped Lyman alpha absorbers known in the spectra of high redshift QSOs, using new and archival observations obtained with UV-sensitive echelle spectrographs on the Keck and VLT telescopes. The weakness and simple velocity structure of the absorption lines in these systems allows us to measure the abundances of several elements, and in particular those of C, N, and O, a group that is difficult to study in DLAs of more typical metallicities. We find that when the oxygen abundance is less than about 1/100 of solar, the C/O ratio in high redshift DLAs and sub-DLAs matches that of halo stars of similar metallicity and shows higher values than expected from galactic chemical evolution models based on conventional stellar yields. Furthermore, there are indications that at these low metallicities the N/O ratio may also be above simple expectations and may exhibit a minimum value, as proposed by Centurion and her collaborators in 2003. Both results can be interpreted as evidence for enhanced production of C and N by massive stars in the first few episodes of star formation, in our Galaxy and in the distant proto-galaxies seen as QSO absorbers. The higher stellar yields implied may have an origin in stellar rotation which promotes mixing in the stars' interiors, as considered in some recent model calculations. We briefly discuss the relevance of these results to current ideas on the origin of metals in the intergalactic medium and the universality of the stellar initial mass function.Comment: 17 pages, 9 Figures, Accepted for publication in Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Societ

The Radio Afterglow and the Host Galaxy of the X-Ray Rich GRB 981226

We report the discovery of a radio transient VLA 232937.2-235553, coincident with the proposed X-ray afterglow for the gamma-ray burst GRB 981226. This GRB has the highest ratio of X-ray to gamma-ray fluence of all the GRBs detected by BeppoSAX so far and yet no corresponding optical transient was detected. The radio light curve of VLA 232937.2-235553 is qualitatively similar to that of several other radio afterglows. At the sub-arcsecond position provided by the radio detection, optical imaging reveals an extended R=24.9 mag object, which we identify as the host galaxy of GRB 981226. Afterglow models which invoke a jet-like geometry for the outflow or require an ambient medium with a radial density dependence, such as that produced by a wind from a massive star, are both consistent with the radio data. Furthermore, we show that the observed properties of the radio afterglow can explain the absence of an optical transient without the need for large extinction local to the GRB.Comment: Accepted for publication in the Astrophysical Journal Letters. Thirteen pages. Three Postscript figure

SBS 0335-052W - an Extremely Low Metallicity Dwarf Galaxy

We present Multiple Mirror Telescope (MMT) and Keck II telescope spectrophotometry and 3.5m Calar Alto telescope R, I photometry of the western component of the extremely low-metallicity blue compact galaxy SBS 0335-052. The components, separated by 22 kpc, appear to be members of a unique, physically connected system. It is shown that SBS 0335-052W consists of at least three stellar clusters and has the same redshift as SBS 0335-052. The oxygen abundance in its two brightest knots is extremely low, 12+log(O/H)= 7.22+/-0.03 and 7.13+/-0.08, respectively. These values are lower than in SBS 0335-052 and are nearly the same as those in I Zw 18. The (R-I) color profiles are very blue in both galaxies due to the combined effects of ionized gas and a young stellar population emission. We argue that SBS 0335-052W is likely to be a nearby, young dwarf galaxy.Comment: 18 pages, 4 EPS figures, to appear in ApJ, 1 July 199

SPICES II. Optical and Near-Infrared Identifications of Faint X-Ray Sources from Deep Chandra Observations of Lynx

We present our first results on field X-ray sources detected in a deep, 184.7 ks observation with the ACIS-I camera on Chandra. The observations target the Lynx field of SPICES, and contains three known X-ray-emitting clusters out to z=1.27. Not including the known clusters, in the 17'x17' ACIS-I field we detect 132 sources in the 0.5-2 keV (soft) X-ray band down to a limiting flux of \~1.7e-16 erg/cm2/s and 111 sources in the 2-10 keV (hard) X-ray band down to a limiting flux of ~1.3e-15 erg/cm2/s. The combined catalog contains a total of 153 sources, of which 42 are detected only in the soft band and 21 are detected only in the hard band. Confirming previous Chandra results, we find that the fainter sources have harder X-ray spectra, providing a consistent solution to the long-standing `spectral paradox'. From deep optical and near-infrared follow-up data, 77% of the X-ray sources have optical counterparts to I=24 and 71% of the X-ray sources have near-infrared counterparts to K=20. Four of the 24 sources in the near-IR field are associated with extremely red objects (EROs; I-K>4). We have obtained spectroscopic redshifts with the Keck telescopes of 18 of the Lynx Chandra sources. These sources comprise a mix of broad-lined active galaxies, apparently normal galaxies, and two late-type Galactic dwarfs. Intriguingly, one Galactic source is identified with an M7 dwarf exhibiting non-transient, hard X-ray emission. We review non-AGN mechanisms to produce X-ray emission and discuss properties of the Lynx Chandra sample in relation to other samples of X-ray and non-X-ray sources.Comment: 42 pages, 16 figures. Accepted for publication in the May 2002 Astronomical Journa

The Host Galaxy of GRB 990123

We present deep images of the field of gamma-ray burst (GRB) 990123 obtained in a broad-band UV/visible bandpass with the Hubble Space Telescope, and deep near-infrared images obtained with the Keck-I 10-m telescope. Both the HST and Keck images show that the optical transient (OT) is clearly offset by 0.6 arcsec from an extended object, presumably the host galaxy. This galaxy is the most likely source of the metallic-line absorption at z = 1.6004 seen in the spectrum of the OT. With magnitudes V_{C} ~ 24.6 +/- 0.2 and K = 21.65 +/- 0.30 mag this corresponds to an L ~ 0.7 L_* galaxy, assuming that it is located at z = 1.6. The estimated unobscured star formation rate is SFR ~ 6 M_sun/yr, which is not unusually high for normal galaxies at comparable redshifts. The strength of the observed metallic absorption lines is suggestive of a relatively high metallicity of the gas, and thus of a chemically evolved system which may be associated with a massive galaxy. It is also indicative of a high column density of the gas, typical of damped Ly-alpha systems at high redshifts. We conclude that this is the host galaxy of GRB 990123. No other obvious galaxies are detected within the same projected radius from the OT. There is thus no evidence for strong gravitational lensing magnification of this burst, and some alternative explanation for its remarkable energetics may be required. The observed offset of the OT from the center of its apparent host galaxy, 5.5 +/- 0.9 proper kpc (projected) in the galaxy's rest-frame, both refutes the possibility that GRBs are related to galactic nuclear activity and supports models of GRBs which involve the death and/or merger of massive stars. Further, the HST image suggests an intimate connection of GRB 990123 and a star-forming region.Comment: Updated references. 12 pages including 3 Postscript figures. Camera- ready reproductions of the figures can be found at http://astro.caltech.edu/~jsb/GRB/grb990123.htm