Violations at the Reference Point of Discontinuity: Limitations of Prospect Theory and an Alternative Model of Risk Choices

The tilted S-shaped utility function proposed in Prospect Theory (PT) relied fundamentally on the geometrical notion that there is a discontinuity between gains and losses, and that individual preferences change relative to a reference point. This results in PT having three distinct parameters; concavity, convexity and the reference point represented as a disjoint between the concavity and convexity sections of the curve. The objective of this paper is to examine the geometrical violations of PT at the zero point of reference. This qualitative study adopted a theoretical review of PT and Markowitz’s triply inflected value function concept to unravel methodological assumptions which were not fully addressed by either PT or cumulative PT. Our findings suggest a need to account for continuity and to resolve this violation of PT at the reference point. In so doing, an alternative preference transition theory, was proposed as a solution that includes a phase change space to cojoin these three separate parameters into one continuous nonlinear model. This novel conceptual model adds new knowledge of risk and uncertainty in decision making. Through a better understanding of an individual’s reference point in decision making behaviour, we add to contemporary debate by complementing empirical studies and harmonizing research in this field. Doi: 10.28991/ESJ-2022-06-01-03 Full Text: PD

Rationalizing Critical Cost Overrun Factors on Public Sector Housing Programmes

The cost overrun phenomenon on projects worldwide creates a major source of risk that warrants investigation. The prevailing factor school of thought provides strong empirical evidence that critical factors contributing to cost overruns are both context-specific and project-specific. Although many studies have been conducted identifying factors and causes of cost overruns, very few studies have investigated root causes. Additionally, a limited body of knowledge is available within the context of Small Island Development States (SIDS). To fill this gap, the objectives of this study were to identify and determine the main critical factors contributing to the cost overrun phenomenon in public sector social housing programmes (PSSHPs). These selected factors were thereafter categorized under leading root causes, and their severity was determined based on primary stakeholders’ perspectives. One hundred and twenty-three factors were identified from the literature, of which forty-one critical factors were extracted and grouped under four root causes based on a pilot survey of relevant public sector housing experts in the Trinidadian and Jamaican construction sectors. These refined factors and root causes were formulated into a questionnaire survey. One hundred and five responses were obtained from professionals who had a minimum of five years’ experience in various phases of public housing delivery. The severity of these critical factors was evaluated, ranked, and categorized using the relative importance index (RII) approach. The findings uncovered the leading root cause, which is political in nature. The top five critical factors are the selection of politically aligned contractors, the intentional design of inadequate contracts, the project actors' deliberately underestimating costs, the partisan project management team, and strategic misrepresentation. These findings are unique to SIDS and contribute to knowledge to reframe contemporary project management practices, which focus mainly on technical causes. Finally, as existing technical solutions are ineffective in curbing cost overruns in PSSHPs, these findings also inform public sector policymakers to focus on prioritization, control, and mitigation of political risks in formulating effective governance mechanisms. Doi: 10.28991/ESJ-2022-06-03-016 Full Text: PD

Implications of ‘Lock-in’ on Public Sector Project Management in a Small Island Development State

The concept of ‘Lock-In’, or the escalating cost of overcommitment on a project to a failing course of action, has unforeseeable implications in project management. This paper presents a case study on the occurrence and consequences of lock-in within the context of public sector housing projects in a small island developing state (SIDS). It demonstrates that cost overruns continue beyond the commissioning phase and throughout the project’s lifecycle, even though technical contingencies were implemented to deliver the intended project benefits. The findings unpack the implications of political expediency as a strategic tool mobilised to supersede proper technical decision-making prior to project execution. It concludes that project practitioners’ commitment to select and continue with a sub-optimal project can lead to the implementation of ineffective solutions to justify their actions, resulting in failed outcomes with negative social consequences. This research helps to advance project management knowledge in the us-er/operation phase, because previous scholarly work was limited to investigating lock-in from project conceptualisation to the commissioning phase

When Parallel Schools of Thought Fail to Converge: The Case of Cost Overruns in Project Management

This paper investigates the conflicting and contrasting views between two prominent schools of thought (SOT), the conventional project management empirical school and the incoming behavioural and psychological sciences, to explain the cost overrun phenomenon in transportation infrastructure projects. Although theories within these SOTs seem to coexist and are used interchangeably, there exists a widening knowledge gap that leads to conflicting and contrasting ideological views. In this paper, we contend that there is a lack of a cross-fertilisation mechanism to fuse and co-join contemporary theories on cost overruns. This has led to the encapsulation and fragmented adhocracy in theory building. Utilising a critical review approach, this study proposes the concepts of ideological distancing and encapsulation between “empiricism” and “behavioural” SOTs as the focus of analyses for understanding the root causes of cost overruns in project studies. The study showed that the extant debate on cost overruns is limited and divergent, effectively contributing to the problem of continued expansion and non-convergence of theories that maintain parallel identities. This creates a space for inquiry, reflecting, theorising, and debating for the convergence of SOTs on cost overrun research and theories on what can be deemed project knowledge. This paper contributes to extant project studies by identifying the need for convergence and co-joining theories with different epistemes through causal linkages. Consequently, this will improve the public sector’s infrastructure policymaking by exposing the theoretical limitations of the current ad hoc manner and application of project management concepts based on the project professionals’ bounded decision-making rationalities

Soil moisture monitoring by downscaling of remote sensing products using LST/VI space derived from MODIS products

Soil moisture (SM) has an important role in the earth's water cycle and is a key variable in water resources management. Considering the critical state of water resources in the Urmia Lake basin, northwest Iran, this study examined the potential for utilizing a variety of remote sensing data and products, in conjunction with a promising downscaling method, to monitor soil moisture with a reasonable spatial and temporal resolution, as a novel and effective tool for agricultural and water resource management. Accordingly, remote sensing products of surface soil moisture were scaled to MODIS's image scale (∼1 km) using the UCLA downscaling method and Temperature, Vegetation, Drought Index (TVDI) values obtained from the scattering space method. Results showed that the LPRM, ESA-CCI, and GLDAS downscaled images had the highest inverse correlation with the TVDI (best results) accordingly equal to −0.600, −0.787, and −0.630. Also, based on the evaluation of the obtained results with the ground stations data, the LPRM and the ESA-CCI downscaled images had the best statistical indices values accordingly in 2010 and 2014 that confirm the promising application of remote sensing soil moisture data (rLPRM (2010) = 0.92, MAELPRM (2010) = 4.14%, RMSELPRM (2010) = 6.39% and rESA-CCI (2014) = 0.7, MAEESA-CCI (2014) = 2.23%, RMSEESA-CCI (2014) = 2.59%). HIGHLIGHTS Soil moisture spatio-temporal monitoring was carried out as an important step in the path of sustainable development.; The research conducted on the downscaling of soil moisture radar products using MODIS images alongside scattering space and UCLA methods proved their ability in various land uses.; LPRM and ESA-CCI products were found to have the highest accuracy in monitoring soil moisture in the Urmia Lake basin.

Variability in trends of streamflow and precipitation in the Narmada River Basin over the past four decades

Hydrological climate variables such as precipitation, temperature, humidity, evapotranspiration, infiltration, and streamflow provide useful information for the effective planning, design, and management of water resources. In the present study, monthly precipitation and streamflow data were analyzed to assess the variability in trends of precipitation over the Upper Narmada Basin (UNB), Middle Narmada Basin (MNB), and Lower Narmada Basin (LNB) for 41 years (1981–2021) using the widely accepted Mann–Kendall Test (MKT), Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA), and magnitude by Sen's Slope estimator, thereby extending further by a decade, the last study by Thomas and others in 2015. The inclusion of more factors affecting the streamflow in response to the rainfall often makes the model very complex and unreliable. In the present study, to overcome this limitation, a simple yet most definite correlation was established between rainfall and streamflow, which can serve as a meaningful indicator of basin behavior. Poor correlation was observed for the UNB and the MNB compared to the LNB, which may be attributed to the presence of tributaries. The result of this study will be helpful to policymakers and water resource managers to plan and adopt suitable schemes of water conservation and management in the Narmada basin. HIGHLIGHTS The study area is falling in the western Indian region having low water conditions.; The rainfall trend has been changing due to climate change and the present study highlights this trend in the recent 20 years.; A rainfall response in the form of streamflow is a much-needed information for watershed management.; Correlation between precipitation and streamflow provides insights about this fundamental relation in the study area.

Data exploration on the factors associated with cost overrun on social housing projects in Trinidad and Tobago

This data article explores the factors that contribute to cost overrun on public sector projects within Trinidad and Tobago. The data was obtained through literature research, and structured questionnaires, designed using open-ended questions and the Likert scale. The responses were gathered from project actors and decision-makers within the public and private construction industry, mainly, project managers, contractors, engineers, architects, and consultants. The dataset was analysed using frequency, simple percentage, mean, risk impact, and fuzzy logic via the fuzzy synthetic evaluation method (FSE). The significance of the analysed data is to determine the critical root causes of cost overrun which affect public sector infrastructure development projects (PSIDPs), from being completed on time and within budget. The dataset is most useful to project and construction management professionals and academia, to provide additional insight into the understanding of the leading factors associated with cost overrun and the critical group in which they occur (political factors). Such understanding can encourage greater decisions under uncertainty and complexity, thus accounting for and reducing cost overrun on public sector projects

Minimizing Liability of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Construction Contracts—A Structural Equation Model for Risk Mitigation of Force Majeure Impacts

A pandemic is a force majeure event, and contracting parties can invoke conditions under force majeure to minimize liability for unforeseen, uncontrollable, and unavoidable circumstances. This study develops a conceptual model to assist in the management of delays and cost overruns due to force majeure events arising from the construction sector in Small Island Developing States (SIDS). A critical case study analysis of past epidemics and pandemics was conducted to develop a survey questionnaire for administration to construction professionals in Trinidad and Tobago. Based on the empirical data of 65 construction professionals, the structural equation model shows that there are strong causal effects from the implications of COVID-19 and force majeure events, which in turn have a dire impact on the construction industry. The leading implication of COVID-19 is the drastic increases in the cost of materials. Also, granting an extension of time to contractors was the main risk variable under the force majeure conditions. From the results, the measurement model verifies that events under force majeure and its perceived implications strongly influence the construction industry, and proposes that force majeure contractual clauses require explicit treatment of the periodic reoccurrence of pandemics to avoid conflicts among contracting parties. This research explores and builds on new avenues from the latest COVID-19 scholarship to better understand existing impacts on the construction industry, and consequently add to the novel body of knowledge on the implications of pandemics on construction contracts. Overall, this research provides a risk-guidance framework for construction professionals and academia to mitigate unforeseen, uncontrollable, and unavoidable risks on construction projects

Performance of a right-triangle stilling basin: a laboratory investigation

One of the most used hydraulic structures for energy dissipation of supercritical flow is the hydraulic jump stilling basin. From dimensional analysis, the sequent flow depth ratio of a hydraulic jump over the right-triangle basin is derived as a function of the inflow Froude number and relative length of the basin front. The proposed structure stabilized the hydraulic jump at the toe of the chute spillway and hydraulic jump characteristics were investigated for the Froude number ranging from 4.4 < F1 < 7. The results obtained from both numerical and experimental simulations yielded increased efficiency in the energy dissipation performance of this novel design. The modeling showed the formation of two large recirculation regions at the jump roller and jump bed at the beginning of the downstream channel, which resulted in intense energy dissipation in the right-triangle basin. The relative energy loss is approximately 37% higher for relative basin front lengths larger than three compared to the classic jump. Practitioners and academia on the usefulness of a right-triangle basin for hydraulic purposes and further experimental tests are needed to estimate the scalability and cost–benefit of this modified system for implementation. HIGHLIGHTS The right-triangle basin with the downstream horizontal channel, as a modified energy dissipation structure.; For this design, the frontal face of the basin is set perpendicular to the inflow direction and its end edge is at the same level as the downstream horizontal channel bed.; The results obtained from both numerical and experimental simulations efficiency in energy dissipation performance of this novel design.