Efeito das mudanças climáticas sobre o voltinismo de Neoleucinodes elegantalis (Guenée) no sul do Brasil

Artigo apresentado na forma de "banner" na Primeira Mostra Científica e Tecnológica da UFSC CuritibanosA broca-pequena-do-tomateiro, Neoleucinodes elegantalis (Guenée, 1854) causa danos a diversas culturas de importância econômica. Estudos mostram que a temperatura influencia o desenvolvimento e, consequentemente, a dinâmica populacional de N. elegantalis. Portanto, em um cenário de mudanças climáticas, espera-se que o crescimento populacional dessa espécie seja afetado. Nesse contexto, o presente estudo teve como objetivo estimar o efeito das mudanças climáticas sobre o número de gerações anuais (voltinismo) de N. elegantalis em Santa Catarina (SC) e Rio Grande do Sul (RS) utilizando modelos matemáticos. Os modelos utilizados foram o Lactin-2 e o de graus-dia, baseado no modelo Linear. O voltinismo foi estimado para 2050 e 2070 considerando dois cenários de mudanças climáticas previstos pelo Painel Intergovernamental sobre Mudanças Climáticas. Em geral, os dois modelos previram um aumento do voltinismo de N. elegantalis na maior parte da área de estudo, sendo esse aumento mais pronunciado no cenário com alta emissão de gases de efeito estufa. Os modelos Lactin-2 e de graus-dia estimaram maior voltinismo nas regiões mais quentes e menos gerações nas áreas mais frias. Foram registradas diferenças de até 41% nas estimativas entre os modelos, principalmente nas regiões mais quentes. Em relação às mudanças climáticas, verificou-se que o número de gerações da praga aumentou em praticamente toda a área de estudo, principalmente na região serrana de SC e RS. Estas informações são importantes para o aprimoramento do manejo de pragas em um cenário de mudanças climáticas, e indicam que um aumento no crescimento populacional é esperado na maior parte da área de estudo

Global Potential Distribution of Bactrocera carambolae and the Risks for Fruit Production in Brazil.

The carambola fruit fly, Bactrocera carambolae, is a tephritid native to Asia that has invaded South America through small-scale trade of fruits from Indonesia. The economic losses associated with biological invasions of other fruit flies around the world and the polyphagous behaviour of B. carambolae have prompted much concern among government agencies and farmers with the potential spread of this pest. Here, ecological niche models were employed to identify suitable environments available to B. carambolae in a global scale and assess the extent of the fruit acreage that may be at risk of attack in Brazil. Overall, 30 MaxEnt models built with different combinations of environmental predictors and settings were evaluated for predicting the potential distribution of the carambola fruit fly. The best model was selected based on threshold-independent and threshold-dependent metrics. Climatically suitable areas were identified in tropical and subtropical regions of Central and South America, Sub-Saharan Africa, west and east coast of India and northern Australia. The suitability map of B. carambola was intersected against maps of fruit acreage in Brazil. The acreage under potential risk of attack varied widely among fruit species, which is expected because the production areas are concentrated in different regions of the country. The production of cashew is the one that is at higher risk, with almost 90% of its acreage within the suitable range of B. carambolae, followed by papaya (78%), tangerine (51%), guava (38%), lemon (30%), orange (29%), mango (24%) and avocado (20%). This study provides an important contribution to the knowledge of the ecology of B. carambolae, and the information generated here can be used by government agencies as a decision-making tool to prevent the carambola fruit fly spread across the world

Global Potential Distribution of <i>Bactrocera carambolae</i> and the Risks for Fruit Production in Brazil - Fig 3

<p>Predicted suitable habitats for <i>B</i>. <i>carambolae</i> showing logistic (a) and binary outputs (b), as well as MESS analysis (Elith et al. 2010). Warmer colors in the logistic map indicate high suitability. The binary outputs include suitable and optimal conditions for the species, represented by the minimum presence threshold (MTP) and 10% training presence threshold (TP10), respectively.</p

Summary of performance statistics of models for <i>Bactrocera carambolae</i>.

<p>Best models are highlighted in bold, and the asterisk indicates the selected one.</p

Percentage of counties and acreage of eight economically important fruit species cultivated in Brazil under risk of attack by <i>Bactrocera carambolae</i>.

<p>Percentage of counties and acreage of eight economically important fruit species cultivated in Brazil under risk of attack by <i>Bactrocera carambolae</i>.</p

Principal component analysis (PCA) performed with 19 bioclimatic variables.

<p>Red symbols represent native populations; blue symbols are invasive populations, light and dark grey points represent 1000 random points extracted from the native and invasive backgrounds, respectively.</p

Strategies and performance of the CMS silicon tracker alignment during LHC Run 2

The strategies for and the performance of the CMS silicon tracking system alignment during the 2015–2018 data-taking period of the LHC are described. The alignment procedures during and after data taking are explained. Alignment scenarios are also derived for use in the simulation of the detector response. Systematic effects, related to intrinsic symmetries of the alignment task or to external constraints, are discussed and illustrated for different scenarios