Retrospektive Verlaufsbeobachtung von Kindern mit Bewegungs-, Wahrnehmungs-, Lern- und Verhaltensstörungen unter Mototherapie

ZUSAMMENFASSUNG In vorliegender Arbeit sollte eine retrospektive Verlaufsbeobachtung von Kindern mit Bewegungs-, Wahrnehmungs-, Lern- und Verhaltensstörungen unter Mototherapie durchgeführt werden. Unter dem Aspekt der Qualitätssicherung soll eine Sekundäranalyse archivierter Daten durchgeführt werden. Dies wird im Sinne einer Pilotstudie ohne Kontrollgruppe realisiert, in der die Prüfung der verwendeten Instrumente zur Erfassung der Veränderungen im Sinne der Evaluation im Zentrum des Interesses steht. Daneben sollen erste explorative Ergebnisse dargestellt werden, die auf mögliche Veränderungen unter mototherapeutischer Behandlung hinweisen. Die Kinder, deren Altersverteilung zwischen sechs und 11 Jahren lag, wurden in der Heckscher-Klinik für Kinder- und Jugendpsychiatrie und Psychotherapie Abteilung Solln, in stationärem und teilstationärem Rahmen mototherapeutisch behandelt. Die Therapie wurde von qualifizierten Mototherapeutinnen zwei mal pro Woche über 30 Minuten durchgeführt. Von den untersuchten Kindern waren 9 weiblichen und 59 männlichen Geschlechts. Die Altersverteilung lag zwischen 6 und 11 Jahren. Die Intelligenzwerte, die anhand des Handlungsteils des HAWIK ermittelt wurden und somit die nonverbalen Intelligenzwerte darstellen, lagen zwischen 62 und 128. Das soziale Umfeld betreffend wurden mehrere Aspekte erfasst, und zwar über die Achse V „abnorme psychosoziale Umstände“ der Basisdokumentation Kinder- und Jugendpsychiatrie. Die untersuchten Kinder wurden nach ICD 10-Kriterien diagnostisch eingeordnet. Die Erstdiagnosen beinhalteten Störungen des Sozialverhaltens, emotionale Störungen und hyperkinetische Störungen. Der Untersuchungszeitraum lag zwischen dem 23.8.93 und dem 7.9.98; die Aufenthaltsdauer betrug zwischen fünf und 36 Monaten. Als Testverfahren wurden der LOS KF 18, des weiteren ein modifizierter Wahrnehmungstest und der CBCL Fremdbeurteilungsbogen verwendet. Die Tests wurden jeweils zu Beginn und zum Ende der Behandlung durchgeführt. Veränderungen im Sinne einer Verbesserung der Leistungen unter mototherapeutischer Therapie konnten mit den verwendeten Instrumenten erfasst werden. Es fanden sich hochsignifikante Unterschiede der Testergebnisse in den Aufnahme - und Enduntersuchungen mit Verbesserung der Leistungen der untersuchten Kinder: im LOS KF 18 - Test waren die T - Werte der Enduntersuchung hochsignifikant besser als in der Aufnahmeuntersuchung. Im Wahrnehmungstest zeigten sich ebenfalls hochsignifikant bessere Ergebnisse bei der Enduntersuchung, und zwar in allen einzelnen Untertests ( taktile, kinästhetische, vestibuläre Wahrnehmung, Raumwahrnehmung und Körperschema ). Statistisch nicht signifikant, aber mit deutlichen Tendenzen bis nah an die Signifikanzgrenze, waren die Unterschiede zwischen Aufnahme - und Enduntersuchung im CBCL Elternfragebogen. Die Verbesserung der mit diesem Fragebogen erfassten Verhaltensaspekte und der Emotionalität war dabei aber klinisch deutlich zu beobachten. Die Schlussfolgerung bei der Beurteilung der verwendeten Instrumente ist somit, dass sich der CBCL - Fragebogen zur Erfassung der spezifischen Verhaltensänderungen bei dieser Fragestellung nicht eignet. Die Ergebnisse bezüglich der Veränderungen der Leistungen der untersuchten Kinder unter Mototherapie waren mit den verwendeten Instrumenten erfassbar und unterschieden sich nicht unter Betrachtung der Faktoren nonverbaler Intelligenzquotient, soziales Umfeld und Diagnose, das heißt die Verbesserung war bei den untersuchten Kindern generell gegeben. Insgesamt können die erfassten Verbesserungen aufgrund des Studiendesigns nicht sicher auf die Mototherapie zurückgeführt werden. Um die Wirksamkeit der Mototherapie zu untersuchen sollten Gegenstand weiterer Studien Untersuchungen mit Kontrollgruppen und optimierten Instrumenten zur Erfassung von Verhaltensänderungen sein

Long baroclinic planetary waves in a nonzonal vertically sheared mean flow

We consider long planetary waves of annual period linearized about a steady, wind-driven subtropical (ST) gyre circulation. The circulation divides the gyre into an eastern zone (EZ) where only the surface layer is in steady motion and a western zone (WZ) where both the surface and the middle layer are in steady motion because the potential vorticity of the middle layer is assumed to be homogenized. In both zones the upper two layers participate in the wave motion while the deepest third layer is supposed infinitely deep and therefore quiescent. In the EZ the solution consists of two sets of baroclinic waves, each a cornbination of the classical first and the second baroclinic Rossby wave coupled by the background flow. In the WZ the propagation of information from the western boundary of the ocean is neglected; therefore the WZ solution consists of only the long set of baroclinic waves. For sufficiently strong background flow the annual period perturbation solution in the southwestern part of the ST gyre is baroclinically unstable and grows westward. The instability may be generated by local wind forcing or energy incident from the east. We study the first possibility by analysing perturbations that are generated by a specified initial perturbation or by annual period forcing started at some initial time. Even very gentle nonzonal background flow dramatically changes the waves away from the simple β solutions. In the first case a Gaussian shaped initial disturbance evolves in a highly anisotropic manner. Growth of the amplitude of the transient solution depends strongly on the central wavenumber and spectral width of the initial disturbance. In the latter case the solution consists of a forced part varying at the annual period plus a transient part

Initially Forced Long Planetary Waves in the Presence of Nonzonal Mean Flow

The purpose of this paper is to understand how long planetary waves evolve when propagating in a subtropical gyre. The steady flow of a wind-driven vertically sheared model subtropical gyre is perturbed by Ekman pumping that is localized within a region of finite lateral extent and oscillates periodically at about the annual frequency after sudden initiation. Both the background flow and the infinitesimal perturbations are solutions of a 2½-layer model. The region of forcing is located in the eastern part of the gyre where the steady flow is confined to the uppermost layer (shadow zone). The lateral scales of the forcing and of the response are supposed to be small enough with respect to the overall gyre scale that the background flow may be idealized as horizontally uniform, yet large enough (greater than the baroclinic Rossby radii) that the long-wave approximation may be made. The latter approximation limits the length of time over which the solutions remain valid. The solutions consist of (i) a forced response oscillating at the forcing frequency in which both stable (real) and zonally growing (complex) meridional wavenumbers are excited plus (ii) a localized transient structure that grows as it propagates away from the region of forcing. Application of the method of stationary phase provides analytical solutions that permit clear separation of the directly forced part of the solution and the transient as well as estimation of the temporal growth rate of the transient, which proves to be convectively unstable. The solutions presented here are relevant to understanding the instability of periodic (including annual period) perturbations of oceanic subtropical gyres on scales larger than the baroclinic Rossby radii of deformation

North Pacific Mesoscale Coupled Air-Ocean Simulations Compared with Observations

Executive summary The main objective of the study was to investigate atmospheric and ocean interaction processes in the western Pacific and, in particular, effects of significant ocean heat loss in the Kuroshio and Kuroshio Extension regions on the lower and upper atmosphere. It is yet to be determined how significant are these processes are on climate scales. The understanding of these processes led us also to development of the methodology of coupling the Weather and Research Forecasting model with the Parallel Ocean Program model for western Pacific regional weather and climate simulations. We tested NCAR-developed research software Coupler 7 for coupling of the WRF and POP models and assessed its usability for regional-scale applications. We completed test simulations using the Coupler 7 framework, but implemented a standard WRF model code with options for both one- and two-way mode coupling. This type of coupling will allow us to seamlessly incorporate new WRF updates and versions in the future. We also performed a long-term WRF simulation (15 years) covering the entire North Pacific as well as high-resolution simulations of a case study which included extreme ocean heat losses in the Kuroshio and Kuroshio Extension regions. Since the extreme ocean heat loss occurs during winter cold air outbreaks (CAO), we simulated and analyzed a case study of a severe CAO event in January 2000 in detail. We found that the ocean heat loss induced by CAOs is amplified by additional advection from mesocyclones forming on the southern part of the Japan Sea. Large scale synoptic patterns with anomalously strong anticyclone over Siberia and Mongolia, deep Aleutian Low, and the Pacific subtropical ridge are a crucial setup for the CAO. It was found that the onset of the CAO is related to the breaking of atmospheric Rossby waves and vertical transport of vorticity that facilitates meridional advection. The study also indicates that intrinsic parameterization of the surface fluxes within the WRF model needs more evaluation and analysis

Functional GARCH models: the quasi-likelihood approach and its applications

The increasing availability of high frequency data has initiated many new research areas in statistics. Functional data analysis (FDA) is one such innovative approach towards modelling time series data. In FDA, densely observed data are transformed into curves and then each (random) curve is considered as one data object. A natural, but still relatively unexplored, context for FDA methods is related to financial data, where high-frequency trading currently takes a significant proportion of trading volumes. Recently, articles on functional versions of the famous ARCH and GARCH models have appeared. Due to their technical complexity, existing estimators of the underlying functional parameters are moment based---an approach which is known to be relatively inefficient in this context. In this paper, we promote an alternative quasi-likelihood approach, for which we derive consistency and asymptotic normality results. We support the relevance of our approach by simulations and illustrate its use by forecasting realised volatility of the S$\&$P100 Index

Lagrangian turbulence in the Adriatic Sea as computed from drifter data: effects of inhomogeneity and nonstationarity

The properties of mesoscale Lagrangian turbulence in the Adriatic Sea are studied from a drifter data set spanning 1990-1999, focusing on the role of inhomogeneity and nonstationarity. A preliminary study is performed on the dependence of the turbulent velocity statistics on bin averaging, and a preferential bin scale of 0.25 is chosen. Comparison with independent estimates obtained using an optimized spline technique confirms this choice. Three main regions are identified where the velocity statistics are approximately homogeneous: the two boundary currents, West (East) Adriatic Current, WAC (EAC), and the southern central gyre, CG. The CG region is found to be characterized by symmetric probability density function of velocity, approximately exponential autocorrelations and well defined integral quantities such as di usivity and time scale. The boundary regions, instead, are significantly asymmetric with skewness indicating preferential events in the direction of the mean flow. The autocorrelation in the along mean flow direction is characterized by two time scales, with a secondary exponential with slow decay time of 11-12 days particularly evident in the EAC region. Seasonal partitioning of the data shows that this secondary scale is especially prominent in the summer-fall season. Possible physical explanations for the secondary scale are discussed in terms of low frequency fluctuations of forcings and in terms of mean flow curvature inducing fluctuations in the particle trajectories. Consequences of the results for transport modelling in the Adriatic Sea are discussed.Comment: 45 pages, 18 figure