138 research outputs found
Electoral participation in the Netherlands: Individual and contextual influences
AbstractResearch into electoral participation has produced two traditions, one focusing mainly on individual level explanations while the second concentrates primarily on aggregate level explanations. By bringing these two research approaches together, we are not only able to explain individual electoral participation more thoroughly, but we also gain additional insight into the influence of aggregate level characteristics on individual behavior. We combine eight National Election Studies held in the Netherlands between 1971 and 1994 enabling us to study variation on the individual and the contextual (aggregate) level, including interactions between these two levels. Findings show that the addition of contextual characteristics form a significant improvement to an individual level model predicting electoral participation. Findings also confirm our expectation that the influence of individual characteristics such as education or political interest is dependent upon contextual characteristics describing for instance the salience of the election
Donât expect me to vote for you just because I like you, even if you do make me feel warm inside: a comparison of the validity of non-ipsative measures of party support
The inclusion of non-ipsative measures of party preference (in essence ratings for each of the parties of a political system) has become established practice in mass surveys
conducted for election studies. They exist in different forms, known as thermometer ratings or feeling scores, likes and dislikes scores, or support propensities. Usually only one of these is included in a single survey, which makes it difficult to assess the relative merits of each. The questionnaire of the Irish National Election Study 2002 (INES2002) contained three different batteries of non-ipsative party preferences. This paper investigates some of the properties of these different indicators. We focus in particular on two phenomena. First, the relationship between non-ipsative preferences and the choices
actually made on the ballot. In Ireland this relationship is more revealing than in most other countries owing to the electoral system (STV) which allows voters to cast multiple
ordered votes for candidates from different parties. Second, we investigate the latent structure of each of the batteries of party preferences and the relationships between them.
We conclude that the three instruments are not interchangeable, that they measure different orientations, and that one âthe propensity to vote for a partyâ is by far preferable if the purpose of the study is the explanation of votersâ actual choice behaviour. This
finding has important ramifications for the design of election study questionnaires
Declining confidence in electoral fairness from those on the losing side is a serious problem â and it is getting worse
Cees van der Eijk and Jonathan Rose estimate the causal effects of the EU referendum on public perceptions of its fairness. They demonstrate that worryingly large groups of citizens have rather dim views of the fairness of electoral processes in the UK
Optimal choice of electoral preference data
Electoral researchers are so much accustomed to analyzing the choice of the single most preferred party as the left-hand side variable of their models of electoral behavior that they often ignore revealed preference data. Drawing on
random utility theory, their models predict electoral behavior at the extensive margin of choice. Since the seminal work of Luce and others on individual choice behavior, however, many social science disciplines (consumer research, labor market research, travel demand, etc.) have extended their inventory of observed preference data with, for instance, multiple paired comparisons,
complete or incomplete rankings, and multiple ratings. Eliciting (voter) preferences using these procedures and applying appropriate choice models is known to considerably increase the efficiency of estimates of causal factors in
models of (electoral) behavior. In this paper, we demonstrate the efficiency gain when adding additional preference information to first preferences, up to full
ranking data. We do so for multi-party systems of different sizes. We use simulation studies as well as empirical data from the 1972 German election study. Comparing the practical considerations for using ranking and single
preference data results in suggestions for choice of measurement instruments in different multi-candidate and multi-party settings
Introduction: Multi-level electoral systems of the European Union: elaborating existing approaches and defining the research agenda for the future
"This volume contains the proceedings of a CONNEX-sponsored conference
of the European Election Studies research group, which took place in March
2007 at Cadenabbia in Lake Como (Italy). The conference sought to explore
the agenda for future research into a theme that has been of central concern
to the group since its inception three decades ago: the study of multi-level
elections. Since then, the European Election Studies research group has
contributed tremendously to this field, and it has generated an impressive
number of publications, many of which are listed on
http://www.europeanelectionstudies.net in the 'publications' sidebar.
Moreover, the data collected as part of this programme â data about voters,
candidates, parties, media and election results â have been deposited in the
public domain, and keep generating â via secondary analyses â additional
publications. In view of the intellectual preparations for studies of the
European Parliament elections of 2009, the questions of what further research
should be developed within the various strands of multi-level electoral research (which are outlined below) and whether and how they can be
integrated into more-encompassing theories of the quality of electoral
processes have to be addressed. These questions motivated the papers and
discussion during the conference." (excerpt
Comparing non-ipsative measures of party support
Non-ipsative measures of party preference (preference ratings for each of the parties of a political system) have become common in election studies. They exist in different forms, such as thermometer ratings or feeling scores, likes and dislikes scores, or choice propensities. Usually only one of these is included in a single survey, which makes it difficult to assess the relative merits of each. The Irish National Election Study 2002 (INES2002) contained three different batteries of non-ipsative party preferences, a feature which allows a systematic comparison between them. This paper investigates some properties of these different indicators. We focus mainly on the relationship between non-ipsative preferences and actual choices. This relationship is particularly revealing in a STV electoral system that allows voters to cast multiple ordered votes for candidates from different parties. Additionally, we investigate the latent structure of each of the batteries of party preferences and the relationships between them.
We conclude that the three instruments are not interchangeable, that they measure different kinds of preferences. If the purpose is to study electoral choice and the process leading up to electoral choice, then the propensity to vote for a party is to be preferred over thermometer or feeling scores, and over likes/dislikes scores
How generational replacement undermined the electoral resilience of Fianna FĂĄil
This chapter focuses on party switching. The civil-war cleavage that differentiated the two main Irish parties, Fianna FĂĄil and Fine Gael, has been gradually diminishing in importance in recent decades. This trend reached a crescendo in 2011, when the incumbent Fianna FĂĄil party saw a dramatic decline in voter support, with swathes of its core voters switching to the main opposition party, Fine Gael. This volatility must be seen from the perspective of a generational replacement. To understand the potential for electoral switching, as opposed to change after the fact, the chapter investigates the configuration of votersâ preferences expressed through propensity to vote questions in the INES. The general framework provides theoretical tools better to understand the scale of Fianna FĂĄilâs defeat, as unique commitment to that party had declined markedly from the position a generation previously and it was thus more vulnerable to punishment following the crisis
Public Opinion with Respect to MPsâ Outside Interests: Insights from the British Election Study
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