Is closing the agricultural yield gap a “risky” endeavor?

CONTEXT: Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has the climatic and biophysical potential to grow the crops it needs to meet rapidly growing food demand; however, agricultural productivity remains low. While potential maize yields in Zambia are 9 t per hectare (t/ha), the average farmer produces only 1–2. OBJECTIVE: We evaluate the contribution of responses to weather risk to that gap by decomposing the yield gap in maize in Zambia. While we know that improved seed and fertilizer can expand yield and profit, they may also increase the variance of yield under different weather outcomes, reducing their adoption. METHODS: We use a novel approach combining crop modeling and statistical analysis of survey data to obtain the yield gap components in Zambia driven by input cost and input risk. We use a crop model to simulate district-level marginal effects of fertilizer and seed maturity choice on the mean and variance of expected yield and profit under all-weather outcomes for each district for the past 30 years. We compare input levels that maximize expected yield to those that maximize expected profit and maximize the expected mean-variance trade-off assuming risk-aversion. To determine how much farmers' input choices are made to reduce risk, we then quantify differences in the expected riskiness of inputs by district. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: We find approximately one-quarter of the yield gap can be explained by risk-reducing behavior, albeit with a substantial geographic variation. Given this finding, under present conditions, we expect that the average maximum yield that farmers can obtain without increasing risk is 6.75 t/ha compared to a potential profit-maximizing level of 8.84 t/ha. SIGNIFICANCE: The risk-related yield gap is only expected to increase with weather extremes driven by climate change. Promoting “one-size-fits all” solutions to closing the yield gap could underestimate the effect of risk mitigation on agricultural production while increasing farmers.CONTEXTO: El África subsahariana (ASS) tiene el potencial climático y biofísico para aumentar los cultivos que necesita para satisfacer la creciente demanda de alimentos; sin embargo, la productividad agrícola sigue siendo baja. Si bien los rendimientos potenciales del maíz en Zambia son de 9 t por hectárea (t/ha), el agricultor promedio produce sólo 1-2. OBJETIVO: Evaluamos la contribución de las respuestas al riesgo climático a esa brecha descomponiendo la brecha de rendimiento del maíz en Zambia. Si bien sabemos que las semillas y los fertilizantes mejorados pueden aumentar el rendimiento y las ganancias, también pueden aumentar la variación del rendimiento en diferentes condiciones climáticas, lo que reduce su adopción. MÉTODO: Utilizamos un enfoque novedoso que combina modelos de cultivos y análisis estadístico de datos de encuestas para obtener los componentes de la brecha de rendimiento en Zambia impulsados por el costo y el riesgo de los insumos. Utilizamos un modelo de cultivo para simular los efectos marginales a nivel de distrito de la elección de la madurez de las semillas y los fertilizantes sobre la media y la varianza del rendimiento y la ganancia esperados bajo resultados en cualquier condición climática para cada distrito durante los últimos 30 años. Comparamos los niveles de insumos que maximizan el rendimiento esperado con aquellos que maximizan el beneficio esperado y maximizan la compensación esperada entre media y varianza suponiendo aversión al riesgo. Para determinar en qué medida los agricultores eligen insumos para reducir el riesgo, luego cuantificamos las diferencias en el riesgo esperado de los insumos por distrito. RESULTADOS Y CONCLUSIONES: Encontramos que aproximadamente una cuarta parte de la brecha de rendimiento puede explicarse por un comportamiento de reducción de riesgos, aunque con una variación geográfica sustancial. Dado este hallazgo, en las condiciones actuales, esperamos que el rendimiento máximo promedio que los agricultores pueden obtener sin aumentar el riesgo sea de 6,75 t/ha en comparación con un nivel potencial de maximización de ganancias de 8,84 t/ha. SIGNIFICADO: Sólo se espera que la brecha de rendimiento relacionada con el riesgo aumente con los extremos climáticos impulsados por el cambio climático. Promover soluciones únicas para cerrar la brecha de rendimiento podría subestimar el efecto de la mitigación de riesgos en la producción agrícola y al mismo tiempo aumentar los agricultores.Centro de Investigación en Economía y ProspectivaFil: Gatti, Nicolás. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA). Centro de Investigación en Economía y Prospectiva (CIEP); ArgentinaFil: Gatti, Nicolás. Universidad del Centro de Estudios Macroeconómicos de Argentina (UCEMA); ArgentinaFil: Cecil, Michael. Clark University. Department of Geography; Estados UnidosFil: Baylis, Kathy. University of California Santa Barbara. Department of Geography; Estados UnidosFil: Estes, Lyndon. Clark University. Department of Geography; Estados UnidosFil: Blekking, Jordan. Indiana University. Bloomington Department of Geography; Estados UnidosFil: Heckelei, Thomas. Universitaet Bonn. Institute for Food and Resource Economics; AlemaniaFil: Vergopolan, Noemi. Princeton University. Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Program; Estados UnidosFi: Evans, Tom. University of Arizona. School of Geography, Development & Environment; Estados Unido

Is closing the agricultural yield gap a risky endeavor?

CONTEXT: Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has the climatic and biophysical potential to grow the crops it needs to meet rapidly growing food demand; however, agricultural productivity remains low. While potential maize yields in Zambia are 9 t per hectare (t/ha), the average farmer produces only 1–2. OBJECTIVE: We evaluate the contribution of responses to weather risk to that gap by decomposing the yield gap in maize in Zambia. While we know that improved seed and fertilizer can expand yield and profit, they may also increase the variance of yield under different weather outcomes, reducing their adoption. METHODS: We use a novel approach combining crop modeling and statistical analysis of survey data to obtain the yield gap components in Zambia driven by input cost and input risk. We use a crop model to simulate district-level marginal effects of fertilizer and seed maturity choice on the mean and variance of expected yield and profit under all-weather outcomes for each district for the past 30 years. We compare input levels that maximize expected yield to those that maximize expected profit and maximize the expected mean-variance trade-off assuming risk-aversion. To determine how much farmers\u27 input choices are made to reduce risk, we then quantify differences in the expected riskiness of inputs by district. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: We find approximately one-quarter of the yield gap can be explained by risk-reducing behavior, albeit with a substantial geographic variation. Given this finding, under present conditions, we expect that the average maximum yield that farmers can obtain without increasing risk is 6.75 t/ha compared to a potential profit-maximizing level of 8.84 t/ha. SIGNIFICANCE: The risk-related yield gap is only expected to increase with weather extremes driven by climate change. Promoting “one-size-fits all” solutions to closing the yield gap could underestimate the effect of risk mitigation on agricultural production while increasing farmers\u27 risk exposure. © 2023 The Author

Occupational Health and Safety Issues in Ontario Sawmills and Veneer/Plywood Plants: A Pilot Study

A pilot study was conducted within the Ontario sawmill and veneer/plywood manufacturing industry. Information was collected by postal questionnaire and observational walk-through surveys. Industrial hygiene walk-through surveys were conducted at 22 work sites, and measurements for wood dust, noise, and bioaerosol were taken. The aim of the study was to obtain data on the current status regarding health and safety characteristics and an estimate of wood dust, noise, and bioaerosol exposures. The occupational exposure to wood dust and noise are similar to what has been reported in this industry in Canada and elsewhere. Airborne wood dust concentration ranged between 0.001 mg/m3 and 4.87 mg/m3 as total dust and noise exposure ranged between 55 and 117 dB(A). The study indicates the need for a more comprehensive industry-wide study of wood dust, noise, and bioaersols

The role of lifestyle factors in the association between early-life stress and adolescent psycho-physical health:Moderation analysis in two European birth cohorts

Objective: Early-life stress (ELS) is an established risk factor for a host of adult mental and physical health problems, including both depression and obesity. Recent studies additionally showed that ELS was associated with an increased risk of comorbidity between mental and physical health problems, already in adolescence. Healthy lifestyle factors, including physical activity, sleep and diet have also been robustly linked to both emotional and physical wellbeing. However, it is yet unclear whether these lifestyle factors may moderate the association between ELS and psycho-physical comorbidity. Methods: We investigated whether (a) participation in physical activity, (b) sleep duration, and (c) adherence to a Mediterranean diet, moderated the relationship between cumulative ELS exposure over the first 10 years of life and psycho-physical comorbidity at the age of 13.5 years. Analyses were conducted in 2022–2023, using data from two large adolescent samples based in the UK (ALSPAC; n = 8428) and The Netherlands (Generation R; n = 4268). Results: Exposure to ELS was significantly associated with a higher risk of developing comorbidity, however this association was not modified by any of the three lifestyle factors investigated. Only physical activity was significantly associated with a reduced risk of comorbidity in one cohort (ORALSPAC [95%CI] = 0.73 [0.59;0.89]). Conclusions: In conclusion, while we found some evidence that more frequent physical activity may be associated with a reduction in psycho-physical comorbidity, we did not find evidence in support of the hypothesised moderation effects. However, more research is warranted to examine how these associations may evolve over time.</p

Prenatal unhealthy diet, insulin-like growth factor 2 gene (IGF2) methylation, and attention deficit hyperactivity disorder symptoms in youth with early-onset conduct problems

BACKGROUND: Conduct problems (CP) and attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) are often comorbid and have each been linked to ‘unhealthy diet’. Early‐life diet also associates with DNA methylation of the insulin‐like growth factor 2 gene (IGF2), involved in fetal and neural development. We investigated the degree to which prenatal high‐fat and ‐sugar diet might relate to ADHD symptoms via IGF2 DNA methylation for early‐onset persistent (EOP) versus low CP youth. METHODS: Participants were 164 youth with EOP (n = 83) versus low (n = 81) CP drawn from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children. We assessed if the interrelationships between high‐fat and ‐sugar diet (prenatal, postnatal), IGF2 methylation (birth and age 7, collected from blood), and ADHD symptoms (age 7–13) differed for EOP versus low CP youth. RESULTS: Prenatal ‘unhealthy diet’ was positively associated with IGF2 methylation at birth for both the EOP and low CP youth. For EOP only: (a) higher IGF2 methylation predicted ADHD symptoms; and (b) prenatal ‘unhealthy diet’ was associated with higher ADHD symptoms indirectly via higher IGF2 methylation. CONCLUSIONS: Preventing ‘unhealthy diet’ in pregnancy might reduce the risk of ADHD symptoms in EOP youth via lower offspring IGF2 methylation

Prenatal unhealthy diet, insulin-like growth factor 2 gene (IGF2) methylation, and attention deficit hyperactivity disorder symptoms in youth with early-onset conduct problems

textabstractBackground: Conduct problems (CP) and attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) are often comorbid and have each been linked to 'unhealthy diet'. Early-life diet also associates with DNA methylation of the insulin-like growth factor 2 gene (IGF2), involved in fetal and neural development. We investigated the degree to which prenatal high-fat and -sugar diet might relate to ADHD symptoms via IGF2 DNA methylation for early-onset persistent (EOP) versus low CP youth. Methods: Participants were 164 youth with EOP (n = 83) versus low (n = 81) CP drawn from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children. We assessed if the interrelationships between high-fat and -sugar diet (prenatal, postnatal), IGF2 methylation (birth and age 7, collected from blood), and ADHD symptoms (age 7-13) differed for EOP versus low CP youth. Results: Prenatal 'unhealthy diet' was positively associated with IGF2 methylation at birth for both the EOP and low CP youth. For EOP only: (a) higher IGF2 methylation predicted ADHD symptoms; and (b) prenatal 'unhealthy diet' was associated with higher ADHD symptoms indirectly via higher IGF2 methylation. Conclusions: Preventing 'unhealthy diet' in pregnancy might reduce the risk of ADHD symptoms in EOP youth via lower offspring IGF2 methylation

Prenatal unhealthy diet, insulin-like growth factor 2 gene (IGF2) methylation, and attention deficit hyperactivity disorder symptoms in youth with early-onset conduct problems

Background: Conduct problems (CP) and attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) are often comorbid and have each been linked to 'unhealthy diet'. Early-life diet also associates with DNA methylation of the insulin-like growth factor 2 gene (IGF2), involved in fetal and neural development. We investigated the degree to which prenatal high-fat and -sugar diet might relate to ADHD symptoms via IGF2 DNA methylation for early-onset persistent (EOP) versus low CP youth. Methods: Participants were 164 youth with EOP (n = 83) versus low (n = 81) CP drawn from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children. We assessed if the interrelationships between high-fat and -sugar diet (prenatal, postnatal), IGF2 methylation (birth and age 7, collected from blood), and ADHD symptoms (age 7-13) differed for EOP versus low CP youth. Results: Prenatal 'unhealthy diet' was positively associated with IGF2 methylation at birth for both the EOP and low CP youth. For EOP only: (a) higher IGF2 methylation predicted ADHD symptoms; and (b) prenatal 'unhealthy diet' was associated with higher ADHD symptoms indirectly via higher IGF2 methylation. Conclusions: Preventing 'unhealthy diet' in pregnancy might reduce the risk of ADHD symptoms in EOP youth via lower offspring IGF2 methylation

Effects of Pre- and Postnatal Early-Life Stress on Internalizing, Adiposity, and Their Comorbidity

Objective: Depression and obesity are 2 highly prevalent and often comorbid conditions. Exposure to early-life stress (ELS) has been associated with both depression and obesity in adulthood, as well as their preclinical manifestations during development. However, it remains unclear whether (1) associations differ depending on the timing of stress exposure (prenatal vs postnatal), and whether (2) ELS is a shared risk factor underlying the comorbidity between the 2 conditions. Method: Leveraging data from 2 large population-based birth cohorts (ALSPAC: n = 8,428 [52% male participants]; Generation R: n = 4,268 [48% male participants]), we constructed comprehensive cumulative measures of prenatal (in utero) and postnatal (from birth to 10 years) ELS. At age 13.5 years, we assessed the following: internalizing symptoms (using maternal reports); fat mass percentage (using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry); and their comorbidity, defined as the co-occurrence of high internalizing and high adiposity. Results: Both prenatal (total effect [95% CI] = 0.20 [0.16; 0.22]) and postnatal stress (β [95%CI] = 0.22 [0.17; 0.25]) were associated with higher internalizing symptoms, with evidence of a more prominent role of postnatal stress. A weaker association (driven primarily by prenatal stress) was observed between stress and adiposity (prenatal: 0.07 [0.05; 0.09]; postnatal: 0.04 [0.01; 0.07]). Both prenatal (odds ratio [95%CI] = 1.70 [1.47; 1.97]) and postnatal (1.87 [1.61; 2.17]) stress were associated with an increased risk of developing comorbidity. Conclusion: We found evidence of timing and shared causal effects of ELS on psycho-cardiometabolic health in adolescence; however, future research is warranted to clarify how these associations may unfold over time. Diversity &amp; Inclusion Statement: We worked to ensure sex and gender balance in the recruitment of human participants. We worked to ensure race, ethnic, and/or other types of diversity in the recruitment of human participants. We worked to ensure that the study questionnaires were prepared in an inclusive way. One or more of the authors of this paper self-identifies as a member of one or more historically underrepresented racial and/or ethnic groups in science. One or more of the authors of this paper self-identifies as a member of one or more historically underrepresented sexual and/or gender groups in science. We actively worked to promote sex and gender balance in our author group.</p

Test and integration results from SuperCam: a 64-pixel array receiver for the 350 GHz atmospheric window

We report on laboratory testing and telescope integration of SuperCam, a 64 pixel imaging spectrometer designed for operation in the astrophysically important 870 micron atmospheric window. SuperCam will be used to answer fundamental questions about the physics and chemistry of molecular clouds in the Galaxy and their direct relation to star and planet formation. The Supercam key project is a fully sampled Galactic plane survey covering over 500 square degrees of the Galaxy in ^(12)CO(3-2) and ^(13)CO(3-2) with 0.3 km/s velocity resolution. SuperCam will have several times more pixels than any existing spectroscopic imaging array at submillimeter wavelengths. The exceptional mapping speed that will result, combined with the efficiency and angular resolution provided by the HHT will make SuperCam a powerful instrument for probing the history of star formation in our Galaxy and nearby galaxies. SuperCam will be used to answer fundamental questions about the physics and chemistry of molecular clouds in the Galaxy and their direct relation to star and planet formation. Through Galactic surveys, particularly in CO and its isotopomers, the impact of Galactic environment on these phenomena will be realized. These studies will serve as “finder charts” for future focused research (e.g. with ALMA) and markedly improve the interpretation, and enhance the value of numerous contemporary surveys. In the past, all heterodyne focal plane arrays have been constructed using discrete mixers, arrayed in the focal plane. SuperCam reduces cryogenic and mechanical complexity by integrating multiple mixers and amplifiers into a single array module with a single set of DC and IF connectors. These modules are housed in a closed-cycle cryostat with a 1.5W capacity 4K cooler. The Supercam instrument is currently undergoing laboratory testing with four of the eight mixer array modules installed in the cryostat (32 pixels). Work is now underway to perform the necessary modifications at the 10m Heinrich Hertz Telescope to accept the Supercam system. Supercam will be installed in the cassegrain cabin of the HHT, including the optical system, IF processing, spectrometers and control electronics. Supercam will be integrated with the HHT during the 2009-2010 observing season with 32 pixels installed. The system will be upgraded to 64 pixels during the summer of 2010 after assembly of the four additional mixer modules is completed

Variation in DNA methylation of the oxytocin receptor gene predicts children's resilience to prenatal stress

AbstractEmerging research in epigenetics has shown that there is variability in how environmental exposures “get under the skin” through mechanisms like DNA methylation to influence gene expression that may lead to differential adaptations to stress. This is the first study to examine prospectively the relationship between DNA methylation at birth and resilience to prenatal environmental stressors in several domains (conduct, hyperactivity, emotional problems, and global symptomatology) in middle childhood. We focused on DNA methylation in the vicinity of the oxytocin receptor (OXTR) gene as it has been previously associated with impairments in social–cognitive processes that may underlie a wide range of childhood psychopathology. Participants were 91 youth exposed to pre- and postnatal adversity with established conduct problem trajectories drawn from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children. Consistent with our hypothesis, OXTR DNA methylation was predictive of resilience in the conduct problems domain in middle childhood. DNA methylation profiles did not predict resilience in domains of emotional, hyperactivity, and global symptomatology, suggesting a potential role for OXTR in the development of conduct problems in particular. However, individuals who were resilient to conduct problems were also broadly resilient across multiple domains. Therefore, future research should elucidate the biological pathways between OXTR DNA methylation and gene expression and its relation to impairments in social behavior.</jats:p