Post-Fire Seed Dispersal of a Wind-Dispersed Shrub Declined with Distance to Seed Source, yet had High Levels of Unexplained Variation

Plant-population recovery across large disturbance areas is often seed-limited. An understanding of seed dispersal patterns is fundamental for determining natural-regeneration potential. However, forecasting seed dispersal rates across heterogeneous landscapes remains a challenge. Our objectives were to determine (i) the landscape patterning of post-disturbance seed dispersal, and underlying sources of variation and the scale at which they operate, and (ii) how the natural seed dispersal patterns relate to a seed augmentation strategy. Vertical seed trapping experiments were replicated across 2 years and five burned and/or managed landscapes in sagebrush steppe. Multi-scale sampling and hierarchical Bayesian models were used to determine the scale of spatial variation in seed dispersal. We then integrated an empirical and mechanistic dispersal kernel for wind-dispersed species to project rates of seed dispersal and compared natural seed arrival to typical post-fire aerial seeding rates. Seeds were captured across the range of tested dispersal distances, up to a maximum distance of 26 m from seed-source plants, although dispersal to the furthest traps was variable. Seed dispersal was better explained by transect heterogeneity than by patch or site heterogeneity (transects were nested within patch within site). The number of seeds captured varied from a modelled mean of ~13 m−2 adjacent to patches of seed-producing plants, to nearly none at 10 m from patches, standardized over a 49-day period. Maximum seed dispersal distances on average were estimated to be 16 m according to a novel modelling approach using a ‘latent’ variable for dispersal distance based on seed trapping heights. Surprisingly, statistical representation of wind did not improve model fit and seed rain was not related to the large variation in total available seed of adjacent patches. The models predicted severe seed limitations were likely on typical burned areas, especially compared to the mean 95–250 seeds per m2 that previous literature suggested were required to generate sagebrush recovery. More broadly, our Bayesian data fusion approach could be applied to other cases that require quantitative estimates of long-distance seed dispersal across heterogeneous landscapes

Applied Soft Classes and Fuzzy Confusion in a Patchwork Semi-Arid Ecosystem: Stitching Together Classification Techniques to Preserve Ecologically-Meaningful Information

Dryland ecosystems have complex vegetation communities, including subtle transitions between communities and heterogeneous coverage of key functional groups. This complexity challenges the capacity of remote sensing to represent land cover in a meaningful way. Many remote sensing methods to map vegetation in drylands simplify fractional cover into a small number of functional groups that may overlook key ecological communities. Here, we investigate a remote sensing process that further advances our understanding of the link between remote sensing and ecologic community types in drylands. We propose a method using k-means clustering to establish soft classes of vegetation cover communities from detailed field observations. A time-series of Sentinel-2 satellite imagery and a random forest classification leverages the mixing of different phenologies over time to impute such soft community classes over the landscape. Next, we discuss the advantages of using a fuzzy confusion approach for soft classes in cases such as understanding subtle transitions in ecotones, identifying areas for targeted remediation or treatment, and in ascertaining the spatial distribution of non-dominant covers such as biological soil crusts and small native bunchgrasses which have typically been difficult to map with traditional remote sensing classifications. Our pixel-level analysis is relevant to the scale of management decisions and represents the complexity of the landscape. The combination of cloud computing with the spatial, temporal, and spectral observations from Sentinel-2 allow us to develop these ecologically-meaningful observations at large spatial extents, including complete coverage at landscape scales. Re-interpretation of large extent maps of soft classes may be helpful to land managers who need community-level information for fuel breaks, restoration, invasive plant suppression, or habitat identification

Detecting Gold Mining Impacts on Insect Biodiversity in a Tropical Mining Frontier with SmallSat Imagery

Gold mining is a major driver of Amazonian forest loss and degradation. As mining activity encroaches on primary forest in remote and inaccessible areas, satellite imagery provides crucial data for monitoring mining-related deforestation. High-resolution imagery, in particular, has shown promise for detecting artisanal gold mining at the forest frontier. An important next step will be to establish relationships between satellite-derived land cover change and biodiversity impacts of gold mining. In this study, we set out to detect artisanal gold mining using high-resolution imagery and relate mining land cover to insects, a taxonomic group that accounts for the majority of faunal biodiversity in tropical forests. We applied an object-based image analysis (OBIA) to classify mined areas in an Indigenous territory in Guyana, using PlanetScope imagery with ~3.7 m resolution. We complemented our OBIA with field surveys of insect family presence or absence in field plots (n = 105) that captured a wide range of mining disturbances. Our OBIA was able to identify mined objects with high accuracy (\u3e90% balanced accuracy). Field plots with a higher proportion of OBIA-derived mine cover had significantly lower insect family richness. The effects of mine cover on individual insect taxa were highly variable. Insect groups that respond strongly to mining disturbance could potentially serve as bioindicators for monitoring ecosystem health during and after gold mining. With the advent of global partnerships that provide universal access to PlanetScope imagery for tropical forest monitoring, our approach represents a low-cost and rapid way to assess the biodiversity impacts of gold mining in remote landscapes

Bayesian Models for Spatially Explicit Interactions Between Neighbouring Plants

Interactions between neighbouring plants drive population and community dynamics in terrestrial ecosystems. Understanding these interactions is critical for both fundamental and applied ecology. Spatial approaches to model neighbour interactions are necessary, as interaction strength depends on the distance between neighbouring plants. Recent Bayesian advancements, including the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo algorithm, offer the flexibility and speed to fit models of spatially explicit neighbour interactions. We present a guide for parameterizing these models in the Stan programming language and demonstrate how Bayesian computation can assist ecological inference on plant–plant interactions. Modelling plant neighbour interactions presents several challenges for ecological modelling. First, nonlinear models for distance decay can be prone to identifiability problems, resulting in lack of model convergence. Second, the pairwise data structure of plant–plant interaction matrices often leads to large matrices that demand high computational power. Third, hierarchical structure in plant–plant interaction data is ubiquitous, including repeated measurements within field plots, species and individuals. Hierarchical terms (e.g. ‘random effects’) can result in model convergence problems caused by correlations between coefficients. We explore modelling solutions for these challenges with examples representing spatial data on plant demographic rates: growth, survival and recruitment. We show that ragged matrices reduce computational challenges inherent to pairwise matrices, resulting in higher efficiency across data types. We also demonstrate how metrics for model convergence, including divergent transitions and effective sample size, can help diagnose problems that result from complex nonlinear structures. Finally, we explore when to use different model structures for hierarchical terms, including centred and non-centred parameterizations. We provide reproducible examples written in Stan to enable ecologists to fit and troubleshoot a broad range of neighbourhood interaction models. Spatially explicit models are increasingly central to many ecological questions. Our work illustrates how novel Bayesian tools can provide flexibility, speed and diagnostic capacity for fitting plant neighbour models to large, complex datasets. The methods we demonstrate are applicable to any dataset that includes a response variable and locations of observations, from forest inventory plots to remotely sensed imagery. Further developments in statistical models for neighbour interactions are likely to improve our understanding of plant population and community ecology across systems and scales

Scaling Up Sagebrush Chemistry with Near-Infrared Spectroscopy and UAS-Acquired Hyperspectral Imagery

Sagebrush ecosystems (Artemisia spp.) face many threats including large wildfires and conversion to invasive annuals, and thus are the focus of intense restoration efforts across the western United States. Specific attention has been given to restoration of sagebrush systems for threatened herbivores, such as Greater Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) and pygmy rabbits (Brachylagus idahoensis), reliant on sagebrush as forage. Despite this, plant chemistry (e.g., crude protein, monoterpenes and phenolics) is rarely considered during reseeding efforts or when deciding which areas to conserve. Near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) has proven effective in predicting plant chemistry under laboratory conditions in a variety of ecosystems, including the sagebrush steppe. Our objectives were to demonstrate the scalability of these models from the laboratory to the field, and in the air with a hyperspectral sensor on an unoccupied aerial system (UAS). Sagebrush leaf samples were collected at a study site in eastern Idaho, USA. Plants were scanned with an ASD FieldSpec 4 spectroradiometer in the field and laboratory, and a subset of the same plants were imaged with a SteadiDrone Hexacopter UAS equipped with a Rikola hyperspectral sensor (HSI). All three sensors generated spectral patterns that were distinct among species and morphotypes of sagebrush at specific wavelengths. Lab-based NIRS was accurate for predicting crude protein and total monoterpenes (R2 = 0.7–0.8), but the same NIRS sensor in the field was unable to predict either crude protein or total monoterpenes (R2 \u3c 0.1). The hyperspectral sensor on the UAS was unable to predict most chemicals (R2 \u3c 0.2), likely due to a combination of too few bands in the Rikola HSI camera (16 bands), the range of wavelengths (500–900 nm), and small sample size of overlapping plants (n = 28–60). These results show both the potential for scaling NIRS from the lab to the field and the challenges in predicting complex plant chemistry with hyperspectral UAS. We conclude with recommendations for next steps in applying UAS to sagebrush ecosystems with a variety of new sensors

Lidar and Deep Learning Reveal Forest Structural Controls on Snowpack

Forest structure has a strong relationship with abiotic components of the environment. For example, canopy morphology controls snow depth through interception and modifies incoming thermal radiation. In turn, snow water availability affects forest growth, carbon sequestration, and nutrient cycling. We investigated how structural diversity and topography affect snow depth patterns across scales. The study site, Grand Mesa, Colorado, is representative of many areas worldwide where declining snowpack and its consequences for forest ecosystems are increasingly an environmental concern. On the basis of a convolution neural network model (R2 of 0.64; root mean squared error of 0.13 m), we found that forest structural and topographic metrics from airborne light detection and ranging (lidar) at fine scales significantly influence snow depth during the accumulation season. Moreover, complex vertically arranged foliage intercepts more snow and results in shallower snow depths below the canopy. Assessing forest structural controls on snow distribution and depth will aid efforts to improve understanding of the ecological and hydrological impacts of changing snow patterns

Structural Heterogeneity Predicts Ecological Resistance and Resilience to Wildfire in Arid Shrublands

Context Dynamic feedbacks between physical structure and ecological function drive ecosystem productivity, resilience, and biodiversity maintenance. Detailed maps of canopy structure enable comprehensive evaluations of structure–function relationships. However, these relationships are scale-dependent, and identifying relevant spatial scales to link structure to function remains challenging. Objectives We identified optimal scales to relate structure heterogeneity to ecological resistance, measured as the impacts of wildfire on canopy structure, and ecological resilience, measured as native shrub recruitment. We further investigated whether structural heterogeneity can aid spatial predictions of shrub recruitment. Methods Using high-resolution imagery from unoccupied aerial systems (UAS), we mapped structural heterogeneity across ten semi-arid landscapes, undergoing a disturbance-mediated regime shift from native shrubland to dominance by invasive annual grasses. We then applied wavelet analysis to decompose structural heterogeneity into discrete scales and related these scales to ecological metrics of resilience and resistance. Results We found strong indicators of scale dependence in the tested relationships. Wildfire effects were most prominent at a single scale of structural heterogeneity (2.34 m), while the abundance of shrub recruits was sensitive to structural heterogeneity at a range of scales, from 0.07 – 2.34 m. Structural heterogeneity enabled out-of-site predictions of shrub recruitment (R2 = 0.55). The best-performing predictive model included structural heterogeneity metrics across multiple scales. Conclusions Our results demonstrate that identifying structure–function relationships requires analyses that explicitly account for spatial scale. As high-resolution imagery enables spatially extensive maps of canopy heterogeneity, models for scale dependence will aid our understanding of resilience mechanisms in imperiled arid ecosystems

Identifying malaria transmission foci for elimination using human mobility data

Humans move frequently and tend to carry parasites among areas with endemic malaria and into areas where local transmission is unsustainable. Human-mediated parasite mobility can thus sustain parasite populations in areas where they would otherwise be absent. Data describing human mobility and malaria epidemiology can help classify landscapes into parasite demographic sources and sinks, ecological concepts that have parallels in malaria control discussions of transmission foci. By linking transmission to parasite flow, it is possible to stratify landscapes for malaria control and elimination, as sources are disproportionately important to the regional persistence of malaria parasites. Here, we identify putative malaria sources and sinks for pre-elimination Namibia using malaria parasite rate (PR) maps and call data records from mobile phones, using a steady-state analysis of a malaria transmission model to infer where infections most likely occurred. We also examined how the landscape of transmission and burden changed from the pre-elimination setting by comparing the location and extent of predicted pre-elimination transmission foci with modeled incidence for 2009. This comparison suggests that while transmission was spatially focal pre-elimination, the spatial distribution of cases changed as burden declined. The changing spatial distribution of burden could be due to importation, with cases focused around importation hotspots, or due to heterogeneous application of elimination effort. While this framework is an important step towards understanding progressive changes in malaria distribution and the role of subnational transmission dynamics in a policy-relevant way, future work should account for international parasite movement, utilize real time surveillance data, and relax the steady state assumption required by the presented model

Socio-Ecological Interactions Promote Outbreaks of a Harmful Invasive Plant in an Urban Landscape

Urban landscapes often harbour organisms that harm people and threaten native biodiversity. These landscapes are characterized by differences in socioeconomic context, habitat suitability and patch connectedness. Identifying which spatial differences enable outbreaks of pests, pathogens and invasive species will improve targeted control efforts. We tested hypotheses to explain the distribution and demography of puncturevine Tribulus terrestris, a human-dispersed invasive plant in Boise, a city in the western United States. We hypothesized an increase in puncturevine infestations near low-valued properties with a high proportion of bare ground, the species\u27 preferred microhabitat, that are well connected on the urban road network. To test these hypotheses, we collected data on the abundance, emergence and persistence of reproductive plants in transects spanning \u3e100 km of our study city. We then used hierarchical Bayesian models to evaluate the impacts of spatial covariates on puncturevine distribution and demography. Bare ground cover consistently increased abundance, emergence and persistence of puncturevine, indicating the overarching importance of suitable establishment sites for this invasive species. Property value had the strongest impact on puncturevine abundance and was the most important main effect in the model for puncturevine emergence. In both models, lower-valued properties had a higher risk of puncturevine occurrence. The effects of road network connectivity depended on bare ground cover, with the highest predicted abundance and emergence of puncturevine in patches with low connectivity on the road network and high bare ground cover. Understanding these relationships will require data that can disentangle seed dispersal from establishment limitations

Demography with Drones: Detecting Growth and Survival of Shrubs with Unoccupied Aerial Systems

Large-scale disturbances, such as megafires, motivate restoration at equally large extents. Measuring the survival and growth of individual plants plays a key role in current efforts to monitor restoration success. However, the scale of modern restoration (e.g., \u3e10,000 ha) challenges measurements of demographic rates with field data. In this study, we demonstrate how unoccupied aerial system (UAS) flights can provide an efficient solution to the tradeoff of precision and spatial extent in detecting demographic rates from the air. We flew two, sequential UAS flights at two sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata) common gardens to measure the survival and growth of individual plants. The accuracy of Bayesian-optimized segmentation of individual shrub canopies was high (73–95%, depending on the year and site), and remotely sensed survival estimates were within 10% of ground-truthed survival censuses. Stand age structure affected remotely sensed estimates of growth; growth was overestimated relative to field-based estimates by 57% in the first garden with older stands, but agreement was high in the second garden with younger stands. Further, younger stands (similar to those just after disturbance) with shorter, smaller plants were sometimes confused with other shrub species and bunchgrasses, demonstrating a need for integrating spectral classification approaches that are increasingly available on affordable UAS platforms. The older stand had several merged canopies, which led to an underestimation of abundance but did not bias remotely sensed survival estimates. Advances in segmentation and UAS structure from motion photogrammetry will enable demographic rate measurements at management-relevant extents