A machine learning approach to predict mortality due to immune-mediated thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura

Background: Mortality due to immune-mediated thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura (iTTP) remains significant. Predicting mortality risk may potentially help individualize treatment. The French Thrombotic Microangiopathy (TMA) Reference Score has not been externally validated in the United States. Recent advances in machine learning technology can help analyze large numbers of variables with complex interactions for the development of prediction models. Objectives: To validate the French TMA Reference Score in the United States Thrombotic Microangiopathy (USTMA) iTTP database and subsequently develop a novel mortality prediction tool, the USTMA TTP Mortality Index. Methods: We analyzed variables available at the time of initial presentation, including demographics, symptoms, and laboratory findings. We developed our model using gradient boosting machine, a machine learning ensemble method based on classification trees, implemented in the R package gbm. Results: In our cohort (n = 419), the French score predicted mortality with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.63 (95% CI: 0.50-0.77), sensitivity of 0.35, and specificity of 0.84. Our gradient boosting machine model selected 8 variables to predict acute mortality with a cross-validated area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.77 (95% CI: 0.71-0.82). The 2 cutoffs corresponded to sensitivities of 0.64 and 0.50 and specificities of 0.76 and 0.87, respectively. Conclusion: The USTMA Mortality Index was acceptable for predicting mortality due to acute iTTP in the USTMA registry, but not sensitive enough to rule out death. Identifying patients at high risk of iTTP-related mortality may help individualize care and ultimately improve iTTP survival outcomes. Further studies are needed to provide external validation. Our model is one of many recent examples where machine learning models may show promise in clinical prediction tools in healthcare

Expert statement on the ICU management of patients with thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura

Thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura (TTP) is fatal in 90% of patients if left untreated and must be diagnosed early to optimize patient outcomes. However, the very low incidence of TTP is an obstacle to the development of evidence-based clinical practice recommendations, and the very wide variability in survival rates across centers may be partly ascribable to differences in management strategies due to insufficient guidance. We therefore developed an expert statement to provide trustworthy guidance about the management of critically ill patients with TTP. As strong evidence was difficult to find in the literature, consensus building among experts could not be reported for most of the items. This expert statement is timely given the recent advances in the treatment of TTP, such as the use of rituximab and of the recently licensed drug caplacizumab, whose benefits will be maximized if the other components of the management strategy follow a standardized pattern. Finally, unanswered questions are identified as topics of future research on TTP

Acute Systolic Heart Failure Associated with Complement-Mediated Hemolytic Uremic Syndrome

Complement-mediated hemolytic uremic syndrome (otherwise known as atypical HUS) is a rare disorder of uncontrolled complement activation that may be associated with heart failure. We report the case of a 49-year-old female with no history of heart disease who presented with microangiopathic hemolytic anemia, thrombocytopenia, and acute kidney injury. Given her normal ADAMSTS13 activity, evidence of increased complement activation, and renal biopsy showing evidence of thrombotic microangiopathy, she was diagnosed with complement-mediated HUS. She subsequently developed acute hypoxemic respiratory failure secondary to pulmonary edema requiring intubation and mechanical ventilation. A transthoracic echocardiogram showed evidence of a Takotsubo cardiomyopathy with an estimated left ventricular ejection fraction of 20%, though ischemic cardiomyopathy could not be ruled out. Treatment was initiated with eculizumab. After several failed attempts at extubation, she eventually underwent tracheotomy. She also required hemodialysis to improve her uremia and hypervolemia. After seven weeks of hospitalization and five doses of eculizumab, her renal function and respiratory status improved, and she was discharged in stable condition on room air and independent of hemodialysis. Our case illustrates a rare association between acute systolic heart failure and complement-mediated HUS and highlights the potential of eculizumab in stabilizing even the most critically-ill patients with complement-mediated disease

Thrombotic Complications in Immune Thrombocytopenia Patients Treated with Avatrombopag

Avatrombopag is a novel oral non-peptide thrombopoietin receptor agonist (TPO-RA) that was approved by the FDA as a second-line therapy for chronic immune thrombocytopenia (cITP). Avatrombopag has shown promising results in regards to efficacy and tolerability, but to our knowledge, there are no reports of thrombotic complications associated with avatrombopag. We present two patients with chronic ITP who suffered thromboembolic events shortly after starting treatment with avatrombopag. The first case is that of a 30-year-old female with refractory cITP who failed multiple lines of ITP therapy and was hospitalized with an intracranial bleed. The patient eventually recovered after an emergent splenectomy but subsequently developed a right lower lobe pulmonary embolism three weeks after starting treatment with avatrombopag. The second case is that of a 58-year-old female with a prolonged history of ITP, and no prior history of peripheral vascular disease, who suffered from both arterial and venous thrombotic events four weeks after starting avatrombopag. Given the new arterial and venous thrombotic complications, avatrombopag was stopped. She was challenged with avatrombopag again and developed yet another thrombotic complication

Case Report Acute Systolic Heart Failure Associated with Complement-Mediated Hemolytic Uremic Syndrome

Complement-mediated hemolytic uremic syndrome (otherwise known as atypical HUS) is a rare disorder of uncontrolled complement activation that may be associated with heart failure. We report the case of a 49-year-old female with no history of heart disease who presented with microangiopathic hemolytic anemia, thrombocytopenia, and acute kidney injury. Given her normal ADAMSTS13 activity, evidence of increased complement activation, and renal biopsy showing evidence of thrombotic microangiopathy, she was diagnosed with complement-mediated HUS. She subsequently developed acute hypoxemic respiratory failure secondary to pulmonary edema requiring intubation and mechanical ventilation. A transthoracic echocardiogram showed evidence of a Takotsubo cardiomyopathy with an estimated left ventricular ejection fraction of 20%, though ischemic cardiomyopathy could not be ruled out. Treatment was initiated with eculizumab. After several failed attempts at extubation, she eventually underwent tracheotomy. She also required hemodialysis to improve her uremia and hypervolemia. After seven weeks of hospitalization and five doses of eculizumab, her renal function and respiratory status improved, and she was discharged in stable condition on room air and independent of hemodialysis. Our case illustrates a rare association between acute systolic heart failure and complement-mediated HUS and highlights the potential of eculizumab in stabilizing even the most critically-ill patients with complement-mediated disease

Cyclosporine or Steroids as an Adjunct to Plasma Exchange in the Treatment of Immune-mediated Thrombotic Thrombocytopenic Purpura

Although steroids are routinely used as an adjunct to plasma exchange (PEX) therapy in the treatment of immune-mediated thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura (iTTP), limited data regarding their efficacy or effect on ADAMTS13 biomarkers are available. We report the results of a prospective, randomized study that compared the effectiveness of prednisone or cyclosporine (CSA) as adjuncts to PEX in the treatment of iTTP. A total of 26 of the planned 72 subjects were enrolled and treated from November 2007 until February 2014 before the study was halted after a planned interim analysis. Fourteen patients were randomly assigned to the prednisone arm, and 12 to the CSA arm of the study. One patient died in each arm of the study, and 2 patients in the prednisone arm of the study failed to achieve a response and crossed over to the CSA arm, leaving 11 patients in each arm of the study evaluable for the primary end point of exacerbation. One of the 11 prednisone-treated subjects (9%) suffered an exacerbation, whereas 3 of the 11 (27%) patients in the CSA arm suffered an exacerbation. Although there was no significant difference in the exacerbation rate, suppression of the anti-ADAMTS13 antibodies and improvement in ADAMTS13 activity in the first month after stopping PEX were significantly better in the prednisone-treated subjects. Side effects were manageable and comparable in both arms of the study. These data demonstrate the superiority of prednisone over CSA as an adjunct to PEX in the suppression of the anti-ADAMTS13 antibodies and improvement in ADAMTS13 activity. This trial was registered at www.clinicaltrials.gov as #NCT00713193