Cost Pass-through in the British Wholesale Electricity Market: Implications of Brexit and the ETS reform

This Cost pass-through rates give a useful perspective of market competition. This paper studies how generation costs are passed through to electricity wholesale prices in Great Britain, both theoretically and empirically, between 2015 and 2018. Our empirical results fail to reject the null of 100% pass-through rates for gas prices, carbon prices, and exchange rates, indicating a competitive GB wholesale electricity market. We observe higher pass-through rates in peak compared to off-peak periods, and argue this results from generators bidding at a lower rate during off-peak periods and supplying at minimum load to avoid the cost of shutting down and starting up. We extend the analysis by assessing generators’ bidding behaviour. The study also considers how two key events occurred during the examined period – the 2016 Brexit referendum, and major reformation of the EU Emission Trading System – have affected electricity costs to a typical domestic household, showing they have increased average annual bills by £41 p.a., constituting a 7% rise

Evaluating consumer investments in distributed energy technologies

The adoption of solar photovoltaic and electrical energy storage by end users depends on their economic attractiveness, which is typically assessed with metrics of future cash flow such as Net Present Value (NPV). Yet analyses using NPV typically do not account for the evolution towards low-carbon electricity systems in the short and long term. We show this to be of critical importance for accurately calculating the profitability of these technologies. By linking an energy system model with a power system model, we observe substantial differences between NPV estimates calculated with and without representing potential evolutions of the electricity system. Our results suggest that not accounting for short- and long-run changes in the electricity system could underestimate the NPV of an investment in photovoltaic and storage by around 20%, especially in scenarios with high levels of renewables, moderate flexibility, and high electrification in the energy system. Using system-dependent cash flow metrics can have a major impact on end-users' energy technology profitability

Evaluating consumer investments in distributed energy technologies

The adoption of solar photovoltaic and electrical energy storage by end users depends on their economic attractiveness, which is typically assessed with metrics of future cash flow such as Net Present Value (NPV). Yet analyses using NPV typically do not account for the evolution towards low-carbon electricity systems in the short and long term. We show this to be of critical importance for accurately calculating the profitability of these technologies. By linking an energy system model with a power system model, we observe substantial differences between NPV estimates calculated with and without representing potential evolutions of the electricity system. Our results suggest that not accounting for short- and long-run changes in the electricity system could underestimate the NPV of an investment in photovoltaic and storage by around 20%, especially in scenarios with high levels of renewables, moderate flexibility, and high electrification in the energy system. Using system-dependent cash flow metrics can have a major impact on end-users' energy technology profitability

Synergies between energy arbitrage and fast frequency response for battery energy storage systems

Energy storage can make key contributions to balancing future low-carbon energy systems by providing a variety of energy system services, with batteries expected to be widely deployed as costs fall with innovation. This paper assesses whether synergies exist between two of the most significant of these services, fast frequency response and energy arbitrage, if a battery energy storage system (BESS) is used to deliver both. A techno-economic model is developed to simulate 600 possible fast frequency response availability windows. Results show that two distinct synergies exist between the two services. The first synergy accounts for the possibility of charging outside the deadband for delivering fast frequency response. We propose an innovative state-of-charge management strategy to exploit this synergy. The second synergy results from energy arbitrage revenues being highly concentrated around peak times, which can enable a battery system to capture most of the arbitrage revenues without an excessive reduction in revenues from capacity provision with enhanced frequency response. The combination of these two synergies means that a battery system could increase its operating profits by 25% by delivering arbitrage and frequency response alternately. This result is shown to be statistically robust using historical data. A battery system able to discharge for 1.5–2 h at its full power rating will most most likely optimise these synergies

Measuring inefficiency in international electricity trading

Interconnectors reduce the cost of electricity supply if they are operated efficiently. We show that established metrics used to monitor electricity trading inefficiency become increasingly inaccurate in several trading conditions. We devise the Unweighted and Price-Weighted Inefficient Interconnector Utilisation indices to address these deficiencies. These metrics are substantially more accurate than existing ones and perform equally well whether or not markets are coupled. Our results show a substantial decrease in inefficient trading between Great Britain and both France and the Netherlands after the European Union’s market coupling regulations were introduced in 2014. In view of Great Britain’s likely withdrawal from the European Union, the paper also evaluates how market uncoupling would affect cross-border trade. We find that uncoupling would lead to inefficiencies in trade, the electricity price differential between GB and France (Netherlands) rising by 3% (2%), net imports into GB decreasing by 26% (13%), congestion income decreasing by 10% (5%), and infra-marginal surplus decreasing by 1.6% (1.6%) of coupled congestion income. We also show that, should the EU decide to implement an equivalent carbon tax to GB’s Carbon Price Floor, uncoupling impacts would be slightly magnified due to electricity prices converging (by about 1% of coupled congestion income)

HER2 expression and efficacy of dose-dense anthracycline-containing adjuvant chemotherapy in breast cancer patients

No data are available on the role of HER2 overexpression in predicting the efficacy of dose-dense anthracycline-containing adjuvant chemotherapy in breast cancer patients. We retrospectively evaluated this role in patients enrolled in a phase III study comparing standard FEC21 (5-fluorouracil, epirubicin, and cyclophosphamide, administered every 3 weeks) vs dose-dense FEC14 (the same regimen repeated every 2 weeks). HER2 status was determined for 731 of 1214 patients. Statistical analyses were performed to test for interaction between treatment and HER2 status with respect to event-free survival (EFS) and overall survival (OS); EFS and OS were compared within each HER2 subgroup and within each treatment arm. Median follow-up was 6.7 years. Among FEC21-treated patients, both EFS (HR=2.07; 95% CI 1.27–3.38) and OS (HR=2.47; 95% CI 1.34–4.57) were significantly worse in HER2 + patients than in HER2 − patients. Among FEC14-treated patients, differences in either EFS (HR=1.21; 95% CI 0.65–2.24) or OS (HR=1.85; 95% CI 0.88–3.89) between HER2 + and HER2 − patients were not statistically significant. Interaction analysis suggested that the use of dose-dense FEC14 might remove the negative prognostic effect of HER2 overexpression on EFS and OS. Our data suggest a potential role of HER-2 overexpression in predicting the efficacy of dose-dense epirubicin-containing chemotherapy and the need to confirm this hypothesis in future prospective studies

Pemetrexed plus carboplatin in elderly patients with malignant pleural mesothelioma: combined analysis of two phase II trials

The incidence of malignant pleural mesothelioma (MPM) in elderly patients is increasing. In this study, pooled data from two phase II trials of pemetrexed and carboplatin (PC) as first-line therapy were retrospectively analysed for comparisons between age groups. Patients received pemetrexed 500 mg m−2 and carboplatin AUC 5 mg ml−1 min−1 intravenously every 21 days with standard vitamin supplementation. Elderly patients were defined as those ⩾70 years old. A total of 178 patients with an ECOG performance status of ⩽2 were included. Median age was 65 years (range 38–79), with 48 patients ⩾70 years (27%). Grade 3–4 haematological toxicity was slightly worse in ⩾70 vs <70-year-old patients, with neutropenia observed in 25.0 vs 13.8% (P=0.11), anaemia in 20.8 vs 6.9% (P=0.01) and thrombocytopenia in 14.6 vs 8.5% (P=0.26). Non-haematological toxicity was mild and similar in the two groups. No significant difference was observed in terms of overall disease control (60.4 vs 66.9%, P=0.47), time to progression (7.2 vs 7.5 months, P=0.42) and survival (10.7 vs 13.9 months, P=0.12). Apart from slightly worse haematological toxicity, there was no significant difference in outcome or toxicity between age groups. The PC regimen is effective and well tolerated in selected elderly patients with MPM

A phase II study of vinflunine in bladder cancer patients progressing after first-line platinum-containing regimen

A multicentre phase II trial to determine the efficacy of vinflunine as second-line therapy in patients with advanced transitional cell carcinoma (TCC) of the bladder; secondary objectives were to assess duration of response, progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS), and to evaluate the toxicity associated with this treatment. Patients had tumours that failed or progressed after first-line platinum-containing regimens for advanced or metastatic disease, or had progressive disease after platinum-containing chemotherapy given with adjuvant or neoadjuvant intent. Response and adverse events were assessed according to WHO criteria and NCI-CTC (version 2), respectively. Out of 51 patients treated with 320 mg m−2 of vinflunine, nine patients responded to the therapy yielding an overall response rate of 18% (95% CI: 8.4–30.9%), and 67% (95%CI: 52.1–79.3%) achieved disease control (PR+SD). Of note, responses were seen in patients with relatively poor prognostic factors such as a short (<12 months) interval from prior platinum therapy (19%, including an 11% response rate in those progressing <3 months after platinum treatment), prior treatment for metastatic disease (24%), prior treatment with vinca alkaloids (14%) and visceral involvement (20%). The median duration of response was 9.1 months (95% CI: 4.2–15.0) and the median PFS was 3.0 months (95% CI: 2.4–3.8). The median OS was 6.6 months (95% CI: 4.8–7.6). The main haematological toxicity was grade 3–4 neutropenia, observed in 67% of patients (42% of cycles). Febrile neutropenia was observed in five patients (10%) and among them two were fatal. Constipation was frequently observed (but was manageable and noncumulative) and was grade 3–4 in only 8% of patients. The incidence of grade 3 nausea and vomiting was very low (4 and 6% of patients, respectively). Neither grade 3–4 sensory neuropathy nor severe venous irritation was observed. Moreover, and of importance in this particular study population, no grade 3–4 renal function impairment was observed. Vinflunine is an active agent for the treatment of platinum-pretreated bladder cancer, and these results warrant further investigation in phase III trials, either as monotherapy or in combination with other agents as treatment of advanced/metastatic TCC of the bladder

Systemic Treatments for Mesothelioma: Standard and Novel

Systemic therapy is the only treatment option for the majority of mesothelioma patients, for whom age, co-morbid medical illnesses, non-epithelial histology, and locally advanced disease often preclude surgery. For many years, chemotherapy had a minimal impact on the natural history of this cancer, engendering considerable nihilism. Countless drugs were evaluated, most of which achieved response rates below 20% and median survival of <1 year. Several factors have hampered the evaluation of systemic regimens in patients with mesothelioma. The disease is uncommon, affecting only about 2500 Americans annually. Thus, most clinical trials are small, and randomized studies are challenging to accrue. There is significant heterogeneity within the patient populations of these small trials, for several reasons. Since all of the staging systems for mesothelioma are surgically based, it is almost impossible to accurately determine the stage of a patient who has not been resected. Patients with very early stage disease may be lumped together with far more advanced patients in the same study. The disease itself is heterogenous, with many different prognostic factors, most notably three pathologic subtypes—epithelial, sarcomatoid, and biphasic—that have different natural histories, and varying responses to treatment. Finally, response assessment is problematic, since pleural-based lesions are difficult to measure accurately and reproducibly. Assessment criteria often vary between trials, making some cross-trial comparisons difficult to interpret. Despite these limitations, in recent years, there has been a surge of optimism regarding systemic treatment of this disease. Several cytotoxic agents have been shown to generate reproducible responses, improve quality of life, or prolong survival in mesothelioma. Drugs with single-agent activity include pemetrexed, raltitrexed, vinorelbine, and vinflunine. The addition of pemetrexed or raltitrexed to cisplatin prolongs survival. The addition of cisplatin to pemetrexed, raltitrexed, gemcitabine, irinotecan, or vinorelbine improves response rate. The combination of pemetrexed plus cisplatin is considered the benchmark front-line regimen for this disease, based on a phase III trial in 456 patients that yielded a response rate of 41% and a median survival of 12.1 months. Vitamin supplementation with folic acid is essential to decrease toxicity, though recent data suggests that there may be an optimum dose of folic acid that should be administered; higher doses may diminish the effectiveness of pemetrexed. There are also several unresolved questions about the duration and timing of treatment with pemetrexed that are the subject of planned clinical trials. It is essential to recognize that the improvements observed with the pemetrexed/cisplatin combination, though real, are still modest. Other active drugs or drug combinations may be more appropriate for specific individuals, and further research is still needed to improve upon these results. Since the majority of mesotheliomas in the United States occur in the elderly, non-cisplatin-containing pemetrexed combinations may be more appropriate for some patients. Now that effective agents have been developed for initial treatment, several classical cytotoxic drugs and many novel agents are being evaluated in the second-line setting. These include drugs targeted against the epidermal growth factor, platelet-derived growth factor, vascular endothelial growth factor, src kinase, histone deacetylase, the proteasome, and mesothelin. Given the progress made in recent years, there is reason to believe that more effective treatments will continue to be developed