ExoClock Project. III. 450 New Exoplanet Ephemerides from Ground and Space Observations

The ExoClock project has been created to increase the efficiency of the Ariel mission. It will achieve this by continuously monitoring and updating the ephemerides of Ariel candidates, in order to produce a consistent catalog of reliable and precise ephemerides. This work presents a homogenous catalog of updated ephemerides for 450 planets, generated by the integration of ∼18,000 data points from multiple sources. These sources include observations from ground-based telescopes (the ExoClock network and the Exoplanet Transit Database), midtime values from the literature, and light curves from space telescopes (Kepler, K2, and TESS). With all the above, we manage to collect observations for half of the postdiscovery years (median), with data that have a median uncertainty less than 1 minute. In comparison with the literature, the ephemerides generated by the project are more precise and less biased. More than 40% of the initial literature ephemerides had to be updated to reach the goals of the project, as they were either of low precision or drifting. Moreover, the integrated approach of the project enables both the monitoring of the majority of the Ariel candidates (95%), and also the identification of missing data. These results highlight the need for continuous monitoring to increase the observing coverage of the candidate planets. Finally, the extended observing coverage of planets allows us to detect trends (transit-timing variations) for a sample of 19 planets. All the products, data, and codes used in this work are open and accessible to the wider scientific community

ExoClock Project III: 450 new exoplanet ephemerides from ground and space observations

The ExoClock project has been created with the aim of increasing the efficiency of the Ariel mission. It will achieve this by continuously monitoring and updating the ephemerides of Ariel candidates over an extended period, in order to produce a consistent catalogue of reliable and precise ephemerides. This work presents a homogenous catalogue of updated ephemerides for 450 planets, generated by the integration of $\sim$18000 data points from multiple sources. These sources include observations from ground-based telescopes (ExoClock network and ETD), mid-time values from the literature and light-curves from space telescopes (Kepler/K2 and TESS). With all the above, we manage to collect observations for half of the post-discovery years (median), with data that have a median uncertainty less than one minute. In comparison with literature, the ephemerides generated by the project are more precise and less biased. More than 40\% of the initial literature ephemerides had to be updated to reach the goals of the project, as they were either of low precision or drifting. Moreover, the integrated approach of the project enables both the monitoring of the majority of the Ariel candidates (95\%), and also the identification of missing data. The dedicated ExoClock network effectively supports this task by contributing additional observations when a gap in the data is identified. These results highlight the need for continuous monitoring to increase the observing coverage of the candidate planets. Finally, the extended observing coverage of planets allows us to detect trends (TTVs - Transit Timing Variations) for a sample of 19 planets. All products, data, and codes used in this work are open and accessible to the wider scientific community.Comment: Recommended for publication to ApJS (reviewer's comments implemented). Main body: 13 pages, total: 77 pages, 7 figures, 7 tables. Data available at http://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/P298

Scaling slowly rotating asteroids with stellar occultations

Context. As evidenced by recent survey results, the majority of asteroids are slow rotators (spin periods longer than 12 h), but lack spin and shape models because of selection bias. This bias is skewing our overall understanding of the spins, shapes, and sizes of asteroids, as well as of their other properties. Also, diameter determinations for large (>60 km) and medium-sized asteroids (between 30 and 60 km) often vary by over 30% for multiple reasons. Aims. Our long-term project is focused on a few tens of slow rotators with periods of up to 60 h. We aim to obtain their full light curves and reconstruct their spins and shapes. We also precisely scale the models, typically with an accuracy of a few percent. Methods. We used wide sets of dense light curves for spin and shape reconstructions via light-curve inversion. Precisely scaling them with thermal data was not possible here because of poor infrared datasets: large bodies tend to saturate in WISE mission detectors. Therefore, we recently also launched a special campaign among stellar occultation observers, both in order to scale these models and to verify the shape solutions, often allowing us to break the mirror pole ambiguity. Results. The presented scheme resulted in shape models for 16 slow rotators, most of them for the first time. Fitting them to chords from stellar occultation timings resolved previous inconsistencies in size determinations. For around half of the targets, this fitting also allowed us to identify a clearly preferred pole solution from the pair of two mirror pole solutions, thus removing the ambiguity inherent to light-curve inversion. We also address the influence of the uncertainty of the shape models on the derived diameters. Conclusions. Overall, our project has already provided reliable models for around 50 slow rotators. Such well-determined and scaled asteroid shapes will, for example, constitute a solid basis for precise density determinations when coupled with mass information. Spin and shape models in general continue to fill the gaps caused by various biases

Does information on systolic and diastolic function improve prediction of a cardiovascular event by left ventricular hypertrophy in arterial hypertension?

Left ventricular (LV) mass (LVM) is the most important information requested in hypertensive patients referred for echocardiography. However, LV function also predicts cardiovascular (CV) risk independent of LVM. There is no evidence that addition of LV function significantly improves model prediction of CV risk compared with LVM alone. Thus, composite fatal and nonfatal CV or cerebrovascular events were evaluated in 5380 hypertensive outpatients (2336 women, 298 diabetics, and 1315 obese subjects) without prevalent CV disease (follow-up: 3.5+/-2.8 years). We compared 5 risk models using Cox regression and adjusting for age and sex: (1) LV mass normalized for height in meters(2.7) (LVMi); (2) LVMi, concentric LV geometry, by relative wall thickness (>0.43), ejection fraction, and transmitral diastolic pattern (by thirtiles of mitral deceleration index); (3) LVMi, LV geometry, midwall shortening, and mitral deceleration index thirtiles; (4) as No. 2 with the addition of left atrial dilatation (>23 mm); and (5) as No. 3 with the addition of left atrial dilatation. Individual hazard functions were compared using receiving operating characteristic curves and z statistics. Areas under the curves increased from 0.60 in the model with the sole LVMi to 0.62 in the others (all P values for differences were not significant). The additional information on systolic and diastolic function decreased the contribution (Wald statistics) of LVMi in the Cox model without improving the model ability to predict CV risk. We conclude that risk models with inclusion of information on LV geometry and systolic and diastolic function, in addition to LVMi, do not improve the prediction of CV events but rather redistribute the impact of individual predictors within the risk variance