Estimating Long-Term Survival Outcomes for Tumor-Agnostic Therapies: Larotrectinib Case Study.

BACKGROUND: Larotrectinib is a precision oncology treatment for solid tumors with neurotrophic tyrosine receptor kinase (NTRK) gene fusions. Larotrectinib efficacy has been evaluated in single-arm basket trials with limited follow-up and sample sizes at the initial regulatory approval due to the rarity of solid tumors with NTRK gene fusion. OBJECTIVES: We aim to demonstrate that trends in progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) in survival data with longer follow-up may be predicted from long-term survival estimates from survival data with shorter follow-up, including predictions for median survival when it is not observed in the trial. METHODS: Patient-level data were pooled from 3 clinical trials (NCT02122913, NCT02576431, and NCT02637687) using the 2018 and 2020 data cuts for the same subset of pediatric and adult patients. The Weibull distribution was selected for survival models. Survival predictions using 2018 data were compared to 2020 Kaplan-Meier (KM) curves. RESULTS: A total of 102 patients representing 15 tumor types were included in the analysis, with a mean age of 37 years. When comparing PFS from the 2018 survival prediction to observed 2020 KM data, the 12-month PFS rate was identical (66.6%). The 36-month PFS rate was lower for the 2018 prediction (35.3%) compared to 2020 KM data (44.4%). The median OS had not yet been reached in either data cut but was predicted to be 90 months using the 2018 data. When comparing OS from the 2018 survival prediction to the observed 2020 KM data, the 12-month OS rate was 89.0% and 86.6% and the 48-month OS rate was 67.2% and 63.0%, respectively. CONCLUSION: Long-term PFS predictions deviated from observed PFS rates due to response differences across tumor types and heavy censoring towards the end of the survival curve. However, for OS, the 48-month survival prediction was consistent with the observed 2020 KM estimate

Distance to invasive heart centre, performance of acute coronary angiography, and angioplasty and associated outcome in out-of-hospital cardiac arrest:a nationwide study

Aims To evaluate whether the distance from the site of event to an invasive heart centre, acute coronary angiography (CAG)/percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) and hospital-level of care (invasive heart centre vs. local hospital) is associated with survival in out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) patients. Methods and results Nationwide historical follow-up study of 41 186 unselected OHCA patients, in whom resuscitation was attempted between 2001 and 2013, identified through the Danish Cardiac Arrest Registry. We observed an increase in the proportion of patients receiving bystander CPR (18% in 2001, 60% in 2013, P &amp;lt; 0.001), achieving return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC) (10% in 2001, 29% in 2013, P &amp;lt; 0.001) and being admitted directly to an invasive centre (26% in 2001, 45% in 2013, P &amp;lt; 0.001). Simultaneously, 30-day survival rose from 5% in 2001 to 12% in 2013, P &amp;lt; 0.001. Among patients achieving ROSC, a larger proportion underwent acute CAG/PCI (5% in 2001, 27% in 2013, P &amp;lt; 0.001). The proportion of patients undergoing acute CAG/PCI annually in each region was defined as the CAG/PCI index. The following variables were associated with lower mortality in multivariable analyses: direct admission to invasive heart centre (HR 0.91, 95% CI: 0.89–0.93), CAG/PCI index (HR 0.33, 95% CI: 0.25–0.45), population density above 2000 per square kilometre (HR 0.94, 95% CI: 0.89–0.98), bystander CPR (HR 0.97, 95% CI: 0.95–0.99) and witnessed OHCA (HR 0.87, 95% CI: 0.85–0.89), whereas distance to the nearest invasive centre was not associated with survival. Conclusion Admission to an invasive heart centre and regional performance of acute CAG/PCI were associated with improved survival in OHCA patients, whereas distance to the invasive centre was not. These results support a centralized strategy for immediate post-resuscitation care in OHCA patients. </jats:sec