Impacts of Partial Cambial Dieback on Tree-Ring Records from Ancient Conifers

Tree-ring records from long-lived trees are instrumental for understanding climate variability during the Common Era. Some of the oldest and most valuable conifers used to reconstruct past climate exhibit strip-bark morphology, in which vertical segments of the tree have died in response to environmental stress. This form of localized stem mortality, also referred to as partial cambial dieback, is particularly common on conifers growing in xeric, cold, or exposed environments. Some studies note that strip-bark trees have increasing ring-width trends relative to trees with a fully living stem circumference, but there is substantial uncertainty as to what extent partial cambial dieback can influence tree-ring records and subsequent climate reconstructions. This dissertation explores the environmental drivers of partial cambial dieback on Siberian pine (Pinus sibirica Du Tour) from Mongolia, the effect of cambial dieback on the radial growth and physiology of affected trees, and methods for reducing strip-bark biases in tree-ring records. Chapter 1 assesses the causes and radial growth impacts of partial cambial dieback on Siberian pine trees growing on an ancient lava flow in central Mongolia. Using a combination of field observations and dendrochronological methods, this chapter demonstrates that strip-bark trees from this site exhibit dieback primarily on the southern side of stems, and that dieback was most common during a cold and dry period in the mid-19th century. Given the directionality and timing of dieback on these strip-bark trees, it is hypothesized that localized mortality events are linked to physiological injuries spurred from solar heating combined with unfavorable climatic conditions. This chapter also reveals that strip-bark trees from this site have increasing radial growth trends relative to trees with a full circular morphology (“whole-bark” trees). Strip-bark trees showed an especially rapid increase in ring widths following the cambial dieback period in the mid-19th century, providing initial evidence that dieback events can lead to increasing ring widths in strip-bark Siberian pine. Chapter 2 seeks to discern the physiological mechanisms of increasing radial growth trends in the Siberian pine strip-bark trees using stable carbon and oxygen isotopes from tree rings. One simple hypothesis is that strip-bark trees show increasing ring-width trends because radial growth is restricted to a smaller stem area after cambial dieback events. Conversely, some studies have hypothesized that increasing ring widths in strip-bark trees reflect a CO2 fertilization effect on growth that is not readily apparent in whole-bark trees. This chapter finds that strip-bark and whole-bark trees responded similarly to increasing atmospheric CO2 and climate variability in their radial growth and leaf-level gas exchange inferred from tree-ring stable isotopes. However, strip-bark and whole-bark trees showed notably different behavior following documented cambial dieback events. After dieback events, strip-bark trees exhibited an increase in ring widths and an enrichment in stable carbon and oxygen isotopes that was not apparent in whole-bark trees. These results further support the notion that partial cambial dieback leads directly to increasing ring widths in strip-bark trees, and that this response could reflect an increase in the ratio of leaf to live stem area after dieback occurs. Chapters 1 and 2 demonstrate that partial cambial dieback events and morphological changes impact the radial growth and physiology of strip-bark trees. Therefore, prior to developing climate reconstructions, it is necessary to remove variance associated with these non-climatic, morphological changes in tree-ring series. Chapter 3 outlines two chronology development methods for reducing strip-bark biases in tree-ring records. These methods, applied to Siberian pine and Great Basin bristlecone pine (Pinus longaeva Bailey), successfully reduce a strip-bark bias without removing low-to-medium frequency climate variance inferred from whole-bark trees, which were not impacted by dieback activity. While one approach directly corrects the bias in strip-bark series using a whole-bark chronology as a target, another method is based on the development of a low-percentile chronology, which can be applied to a site collection where the stem morphology of individual trees is unknown. Some limitations and caveats of these methods are discussed in context of the analyzed tree species. The findings from this dissertation have significantly contributed to our understanding of the radial growth and physiological responses of Siberian pine to partial cambial dieback and environmental changes. This dissertation also provides new methods for removing strip-bark biases in tree-ring chronologies. The conclusions presented here have important implications regarding the potential effects of partial cambial dieback on tree-ring records from other tree species and climate reconstructions derived from them. Continued and detailed study of the causes and impacts of partial cambial dieback on other tree species will be critical for understanding the interactions between ancient trees and their environment, and for improving the reliability of climate reconstructions based fully or partly on strip-bark trees

Program evaluation of two residential care group homes in the province of Newfoundland

A group home program was established in the Province of Newfoundland and Labrador in 1977 to provide community based programming for children and young adults with special needs. This research constitutes the first formal effort to systematically study the programs of two group homes in this province, located in Corner Brook and St. John's respectively, by utilizing an evaluative strategy designed by Holosko and Feit (1981). In addition, the researcher will determine the effectiveness of this strategy in the group home setting. The Corner Brook group home provides for emotionally disturbed adolescents while developmentally delayed young adults live in the St. John's group home. -- The research method chosen for this study is a quantitative-descriptive program evaluation. The strategy is a "Population Profile Narrative Study" as designed by Holosko and Feit (1981). The goal for this strategy is to describe the clients, services, personnel and immediate community served by the agency and includes three specific objectives. These are to provide: 1) a typical "day-in-a-life" of a client; 2) sociodemographic variables on the clients, services, personnel, and community; and 3) a description of clients, services, personnel as they interface with the community. -- The programs in each group home differed in certain aspects. The St. John's group home had behaviorally specific programs for each resident designed according to the individual's needs. In addition, the assessment of residents and the basic program goals were coordinated with the programming and constantly reviewed. The Corner Brook group home had the same individual programs for all residents, with only one exception - psychiatric counseling - which was recommended for one resident by a referring agency. There was no regular assessment of the individual residents and the group home staff were not familiar with the basic program goals of the group home. -- Recommendations are presented to the group homes based on the data compiled. It is recommended that both group homes: 1) utilize and maintain a strong outreach approach to the community; 2) initiate regular and ongoing evaluation of their operation; 3) introduce a systemized method of recordkeeping on clients and programs/services; and 4) choose Board members who have experience with similar agencies in order that their experience be used to help the group homes develop productively. It is recommended that the Corner Brook group home: 1) introduce regular and ongoing staff training including a formal orientation with a review of program goals and objectives; 2) introduce respite workers; 3) encourage Board members to increase their interaction with the group home staff; 4) institute a method for client assessment; and 5) develop and/or strengthen individualized programs for clients based on needs assessment. -- The Holosko and Feit (1981) "Population Profile Narrative Study" worked well for the researcher in the group home setting with minor limitations. In addition, the quantitative/descriptive data collected for this evaluative strategy may provide a useful data base for policy planning and decision-making in the two group homes, as well as future analyses and research

A long-term context (931–2005 C.E.) for rapid warming over Central Asia

Warming over Mongolia and Central Asia has been unusually rapid over the past few decades, particularly in the summer, with surface temperature anomalies higher than for much of the globe. With few temperature station records available in this remote region prior to the 1950s, paleoclimatic data must be used to understand annual-to-centennial scale climate variability, local response to large-scale forcing mechanisms, and the significance of major features of the past millennium such as the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and Little Ice Age (LIA) both of which can vary globally. Here we use an extensive collection of living and subfossil wood samples from temperature-sensitive trees to produce a millennial-length, validated reconstruction of summer temperatures for Mongolia and Central Asia from 931 to 2005 CE. This tree-ring reconstruction shows general agreement with the MCA (warming) and LIA (cooling) trends, a significant volcanic signature, and warming in the 20th and 21st Century. Recent warming (2000–2005) exceeds that from any other time and is concurrent with, and likely exacerbated, the impact of extreme drought (1999–2002) that resulted in massive livestock loss across Mongolia

Past and future drought in Mongolia

The severity of recent droughts in semiarid regions is increasingly attributed to anthropogenic climate change, but it is unclear whether these moisture anomalies exceed those of the past and how past variability compares to future projections. On the Mongolian Plateau, a recent decade-long drought that exceeded the variability in the instrumental record was associated with economic, social, and environmental change. We evaluate this drought using an annual reconstruction of the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) spanning the last 2060 years in concert with simulations of past and future drought through the year 2100 CE. We show that although the most recent drought and pluvial were highly unusual in the last 2000 years, exceeding the 900-year return interval in both cases, these events were not unprecedented in the 2060-year reconstruction, and events of similar duration and severity occur in paleoclimate, historical, and future climate simulations. The Community Earth System Model (CESM) ensemble suggests a drying trend until at least the middle of the 21st century, when this trend reverses as a consequence of elevated precipitation. Although the potential direct effects of elevated CO2 on plant water use efficiency exacerbate uncertainties about future hydroclimate trends, these results suggest that future drought projections for Mongolia are unlikely to exceed those of the last two millennia, despite projected warming

Dzuds, droughts, and livestock mortality in Mongolia

Recent incidences of mass livestock mortality, known as dzud, have called into question the sustainability of pastoral nomadic herding, the cornerstone of Mongolian culture. A total of 20 million head of livestock perished in the mortality events of 2000–2002, and 2009–2010. To mitigate the effects of such events on the lives of herders, international agencies such as the World Bank are taking increasing interest in developing tailored market-based solutions like index-insurance. Their ultimate success depends on understanding the historical context and underlying causes of mortality. In this paper we examine mortality in 21 Mongolian aimags (provinces) between 1955 and 2013 in order to explain its density independent cause(s) related to climate variability. We show that livestock mortality is most strongly linked to winter (November–February) temperatures, with incidences of mass mortality being most likely to occur because of an anomalously cold winter. Additionally, we find prior summer (July–September) drought and precipitation deficit to be important triggers for mortality that intensifies the effect of upcoming winter temperatures on livestock. Our density independent mortality model based on winter temperature, summer drought, summer precipitation, and summer potential evaporanspiration explains 48.4% of the total variability in the mortality dataset. The Mongolian index based livestock insurance program uses a threshold of 6% mortality to trigger payouts. We find that on average for Mongolia, the probability of exceedance of 6% mortality in any given year is 26% over the 59 year period between 1955 and 2013

A long-term perspective on a modern drought in the American Southeast

The depth of the 2006-9 drought in the humid, southeastern US left several metropolitan areas with only a 60-120 day water supply. To put the region's recent drought variability in a long-term perspective, a dense and diverse tree-ring network—including the first records throughout the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint river basin—is used to reconstruct drought from 1665 to 2010 CE. The network accounts for up to 58.1% of the annual variance in warm-season drought during the 20th century and captures wet eras during the middle to late 20th century. The reconstruction shows that the recent droughts are not unprecedented over the last 346 years. Indeed, droughts of extended duration occurred more frequently between 1696 and 1820. Our results indicate that the era in which local and state water supply decisions were developed and the period of instrumental data upon which it is based are amongst the wettest since at least 1665. Given continued growth and subsequent industrial, agricultural and metropolitan demand throughout the southeast, insights from paleohydroclimate records suggest that the threat of water-related conflict in the region has potential to grow more intense in the decades to come

Three centuries of shifting hydroclimatic regimes across the Mongolian Breadbasket

In its continuing move toward resource independence, Mongolia has recently entered a new agricultural era. Large crop fields and center-pivot irrigation have been established in the last 10 years across Mongolia's "Breadbasket": the Bulgan, Selenge and Tov aimags of northcentral Mongolia. Since meteorological records are typically short and spatially diffuse, little is known about the frequency and scale of past droughts in this region. We use six chronologies from the eastern portion of the breadbasket region to reconstruct streamflow of the Yeruu River. These chronologies accounted for 60.8% of May–September streamflow from 1959 to 1987 and 74.1% from 1988 to 2001. All split, calibration-verification statistics were positive, indicating significant model reconstruction. Reconstructed Yeruu River streamflow indicates the 20th century to be wetter than the two prior centuries. When comparing the new reconstruction to an earlier reconstruction of Selenge River streamflow, representing the western portion of the breadbasket region, both records document more pluvial events of greater intensity during 20th century versus prior centuries and indicate that the recent decade of drought that lead to greater aridity across the landscape is not unusual in the context of the last 300 years. Most interestingly, variability analyses indicate that the larger river basin in the western breadbasket (the Selenge basin) experiences greater swings in hydroclimate at multi-decadal to centennial time scales while the smaller basin in the eastern portion of the breadbasket (the Yeruu basin) is more stable. From this comparison, there would be less risk in agricultural productivity in the eastern breadbasket region, although the western breadbasket region can potentially be enormously productive for decades at a time before becoming quite dry for an equally long period of time. These results indicate that farmers and water managers need to prepare for both pluvial conditions like those in the late-1700s, and drier conditions like those during the early and mid-1800s. Recent studies have indicated that cultures with plentiful resources are more vulnerable when these resources become diminished. Thus, the instrumental records of the 20th century should not be used as a model of moisture availability. Most importantly, the geographic mismatch between precipitation, infrastructure, and water demand could turn out to be particularly acute for countries like Mongolia, especially as these patterns can switch in space through time

Estimating return intervals for extreme climate conditions related to winter disasters and livestock mortality in Mongolia

Mass livestock mortality events during severe winters, a phenomenon that Mongolians call dzud, cause the country significant socioeconomic problems. Dzud is an example of a compound event, meaning that multiple climatic and social drivers contribute to the risk of occurrence. Existing studies argue that the frequency and intensity of dzud events are rising due to the combined effects of climate change and variability, most notably summer drought and severe winter conditions, on top of socioeconomic dynamics such as overgrazing. Summer droughts are a precondition for dzud because scarce grasses cause malnutrition, making livestock more vulnerable to harsh winter conditions. However, studies investigating the association between climate and dzud typically look at a short time frame (i.e., after 1940), and few have investigated the risk or the recurrence of dzud over a century-scale climate record. This study aims to fill the gaps in technical knowledge about the recurrence probability of dzud by estimating the return periods of relevant climatic variables: summer drought conditions and winter minimum temperature. We divide the country into three regions (northwest, southwest, and east Mongolia) based on the mortality index at the soum (county) level. For droughts, our study uses as a proxy the tree-ring-reconstructed Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) for three regions between 1700–2013. For winter severity, our study uses observational data of winter minimum temperature after 1901 while inferring winter minimum temperature in Mongolia from instrumental data in Siberia that extend to the early 19th century. Using a generalized extreme value distribution with time-varying parameters, we find that the return periods of drought conditions vary over time, with variability increasing for all the regions. Winter temperature severity, however, does not change with time. The median temperature of the 100-year return period for winter minimum temperature in Mongolia over the past 300 years is estimated as −26.08 ∘C for the southwest, −27.99 ∘C for the northwest, and −25.31 ∘C for the east. The co-occurrence of summer drought and winter severity increases in all the regions in the early 21st century. The analysis suggests that a continued trend in summer drought would lead to increased vulnerability and malnutrition. Prospects for climate index insurance for livestock are also discussed

European and Mediterranean hydroclimate responses to tropical volcanic forcing over the last millennium

Volcanic eruptions have global climate impacts, but their effect on the hydrologic cycle is poorly understood. We use a modified version of superposed epoch analysis, an eruption year list collated from multiple data sets, and seasonal paleoclimate reconstructions (soil moisture, precipitation, geopotential heights, and temperature) to investigate volcanic forcing of spring and summer hydroclimate over Europe and the Mediterranean over the last millennium. In the western Mediterranean, wet conditions occur in the eruption year and the following 3 years. Conversely, northwestern Europe and the British Isles experience dry conditions in response to volcanic eruptions, with the largest moisture deficits in posteruption years 2 and 3. The precipitation response occurs primarily in late spring and early summer (April–July), a pattern that strongly resembles the negative phase of the East Atlantic Pattern. Modulated by this mode of climate variability, eruptions force significant, widespread, and heterogeneous hydroclimate responses across Europe and the Mediterranean

Strip‐Bark Morphology and Radial Growth Trends in Ancient Pinus sibirica Trees From Central Mongolia

Some of the oldest and most important trees used for dendroclimatic reconstructions develop strip‐bark morphology, in which only a portion of the stem contains living tissue. Yet the ecophysiological factors initiating strip bark and the potential effect of cambial dieback on annual ring widths and tree‐ring estimates of past climate remain poorly understood. Using a combination of field observations and tree‐ring data, we investigate the causes and timing of cambial dieback events in Pinus sibirica strip‐bark trees from central Mongolia and compare the radial growth rates and trends of strip‐bark and whole‐bark trees over the past 515 years. Results indicate that strip bark is more common on the southern aspect of trees, and dieback events were most prevalent in the 19th century, a cold and dry period. Further, strip‐bark and whole‐bark trees have differing centennial trends, with strip‐bark trees exhibiting notably large increases in ring widths at the beginning of the 20th century. We find a steeper positive trend in the strip‐bark chronology relative to the whole‐bark chronology when standardizing with age‐dependent splines. We hypothesize that localized warming on the southern side of stems due to solar irradiance results in physiological damage and dieback and leads to increasing tree‐ring increment along the living portion of strip‐bark trees. Because the impact of cambial dieback on ring widths likely varies depending on species and site, we suggest conducting a comparison of strip‐bark and whole‐bark ring widths before statistically treating ring‐width data for climate reconstructions