A Framework to Assess Returns on Investments in the Dryland Systems of Northern Kenya

Governments need quantitative assessments of the outcomes of proposed investments so they can weigh the merits of each option. Without these, there is a risk that some proposed changes could in fact reduce rather than increase benefits to the economy and society. At present, there is no definitive framework for assessing the returns to Northern Kenya's predominantly pastoralist land use, nor any prediction of its returns under anticipated climate changes. There is therefore no possibility of comparing returns between this and any alternatives. Flagship projects planned to accelerate economic development in Northern Kenya include an international transport corridor, a resort city and an international airport. In addition, mineral deposits are being discovered, towns are growing across both arid and semi-arid areas, and land speculation is increasing. The county governments are faced with the task of prioritising investments which can do the most to improve living standards for local people. This paper is intended to stimulate and contribute to a discussion of how the returns on land-based investments in the drylands should be evaluated. It presents an assessment framework for weighing the total economic value of the ecosystem services provided by pastoral and mixed land-use systems under anticipated climate changes and variability. The proposed framework draws on contributions from previous research at IIED and by other research partners focusing on ecosystem service assessment in Northern Kenya and surrounding dry regions. The paper reviews the current state of knowledge on the returns from pastoral and other land uses in the region, identifies research gaps and highlights the next steps needed for implementing the framework

Less to lose? Drought impact and vulnerability assessment in disadvantaged regions

Droughts hit the most vulnerable people the hardest. When this happens, everybody in the economy loses over the medium- to long-term. Proactive policies and planning based on vulnerability and risk assessments can reduce drought risk before the worst impacts occur. The aim of this article is to inform a global initiative, led by the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD), to mitigate the effects of drought on vulnerable ecosystems and communities. This is approached through a rapid review of experiences from selected nations and of the available literature documenting methodological approaches to assess drought impacts and vulnerability at the local level. The review finds that members of the most vulnerable communities can integrate available methods to assess drought risks to their land and ecosystem productivity, their livelihoods and their life-supporting hydrological systems. This integration of approaches helps to ensure inclusive assessments across communities and ecosystems. However, global economic assessments often still fail to connect to holistic consideration of vulnerability at a local scale. As a result, they routinely fall short of capturing the systemic effects of land and water management decisions that deepen vulnerability to droughts over time. To ensure proactive and inclusive drought risk mitigation, multiscale, systemic approaches to drought vulnerability and risk assessment can be further reinforced at a global level

Valuing Environmental Benefit Streams in the Dryland Ecosystems of Sub-Saharan Africa

Policy-makers and practitioners often struggle or fail to define and quantify the economic impacts that can be achieved through ecologically sustainable investments in dryland ecosystems. This paper reviews the current state of the art in the characterization and valuation of environmental benefits in drought-prone areas of Sub-Saharan Africa. Benefit streams from ecosystem services associated with the production of food, energy and water are characterized, as well as those from supporting and regulating hydrological systems. For each value type, valuation approaches and examples of their application in Sub-Saharan African contexts are presented. The review is drawn from a series of recent methodological discussions, working papers and field research reports focusing on the benefits of locally determined and ecosystem-based adaptations under dryland climate extremes. The focus is on the challenges faced by practitioners and researchers tasked with developing benefit-cost assessments for investments in the adaptive management and conservation of dryland ecosystems, particularly in marginalized dry and drought-prone areas of Sub-Saharan Africa. Recommendations could also interest a wider global community of dryland researchers and development practitioners

Drought management in the drylands of Kenya: what have we learned?

The countries of the Horn of Africa face shared regional challenges to enhance proactive management of drought hazards. These include financing challenges to reduce reliance on emergency relief aid, as well as needs to enhance the use of information to trigger interventions and learn from implementation experiences. This chapter reflects on a decade of experience gained in building institutional capacity for drought management and preparedness in the Kenyan arid lands during 2008–18. It reviews lessons learned and their significance for the wider region. It concludes that to end drought emergencies by 2022 will require the use of participatory scientific methods and capacities to monitor, model, and manage the hydrological systems in the arid and semi-arid lands. This is needed urgently as growing economic water demand and extractions may already exceed predicted increases in precipitation and the costs of hydrological droughts are increasing

A review of public versus private reforestation programs in the Senegalese Sahel: taking stock of realities and challenges

The Great Green Wall (GGW) across the Sahara is expected to generate a wide range of ecological and socioeconomic benefits. Ideally, ecosystem recovery should be assessed using measurable indicators (Society for Ecological Restoration [SER] principal 5). This requires agreement on only a few clear goals and targets and the establishment of effective measurement systems, yet in practice, each stakeholder and funder brings different targets that the GGW must achieve. Alongside its ecological objectives and biodiversity indicators, the GGW must also demonstrate meaningful socioeconomic benefits, engage communities, and contribute to green economic development in the restoration areas. Since the engagement of the private sector is presently seen as a critical challenge, we compare the current GGW approach and performance with that of an established Acacia senegal plantation focusing more narrowly on a commercial objective to produce gum arabic for export. Our analysis of information from both programs demonstrates strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats to the restoration successes achieved. These insights can help to guide ongoing programing and evaluation of the GGW toward both ecological and socioeconomic objectives in Senegal. They also reflect on emerging global discussion of business cases for reinvestment by all stakeholders to halt and reverse ecological damage.</p

Good practice guidance for national reporting on UNCCD Strategic Objective 3: to mitigate, adapt to, and manage the effects of drought in order to enhance resilience of vulnerable populations and ecosystems

This document provides guidance on how to calculate three indicators used for reporting progress towards the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) Strategic Objective 3 which has the aim to mitigate, adapt to, and manage the effects of drought in order to enhance resilience of vulnerable populations and ecosystems

Tracing the trade-offs at the energy-water-environment nexus in drought-prone urbanising regions

Strategies for managing water stress negotiate a complex series of trade-offs and opportunities. Game-changing opportunities for water stressed regions are emerging with new emissions reduction strategies and energy options. These have particular significance for socio-economic development pathways in the marginal drought-prone regions. In this paper, we explore the energy-water-environment nexus in watersheds undergoing acute water stress and energy transitions in the Arab region and the Horn of Africa. A review of published and ongoing scientific activity was used to elaborate four case studies and identify common trade-offs between objectives to reduce water stress, increase productivity and lower energy costs and emissions. The available scientific evidence base for assessment of these trade-offs was then compared via a discursive process amongst review team members. Collectively, the case studies present a state of the art in available geoscientific methods currently applied in the Arab region to quantify nexus trade-offs for decision-making concerning increasing groundwater use, water harvesting and wastewater reuse across the case studies. The review pursues the wider geographic relevance and scope of this emerging scientific agenda. It identifies global opportunities to boost and progressively enhance the geoscientific information bases for decision-making in the most water stressed regions, as well as direct comparisons with emerging discussion in the Horn of Africa region. Insights for sustainable development decision-makers are highlighted and further scope for the transfer of insights within and beyond the Arab region are discussed

How can we stop the slow-burning systemic fuse of loss and damage due to land degradation and drought in Africa?

Droughts are extreme events that have major impacts on communities, ecosystems and economies due to slow onset and complex processes. Land and ecosystem degradation increase the risks of loss and damage during droughts, whereas well-adapted practices and policies can enable society to (re)build resilience. This review highlights actions needed to connect and fill gaps in the present systems for ecological and hydrological monitoring, governance, and alignment of economic incentives at regional, national and local scales. Stopping the slow-burning fuse of drought damage requires improved tracking and reversal of the observable slow-onset nature of hydrological and socio-economic drought. International scientific and technical cooperation to better map and quantify changing loss and damage risks could provide evidence-based action triggers