Performance of machine learning classifiers in classifying stunting among under-five children in Zambia

Stunting is a global public health issue. We sought to train and evaluate machine learning (ML) classification algorithms on the Zambia Demographic Health Survey (ZDHS) dataset to predict stunting among children under the age of five in Zambia. We applied Logistic regression (LR), Random Forest (RF), SV classification (SVC), XG Boost (XgB) and Naïve Bayes (NB) algorithms to predict the probability of stunting among children under five years of age, on the 2018 ZDHS dataset. We calibrated predicted probabilities and plotted the calibration curves to compare model performance. We computed accuracy, recall, precision and F1 for each machine learning algorithm. About 2327 (34.2%) children were stunted. Thirteen of fifty-eight features were selected for inclusion in the model using random forest. Calibrating the predicted probabilities improved the performance of machine learning algorithms when evaluated using calibration curves. RF was the most accurate algorithm, with an accuracy score of 79% in the testing and 61.6% in the training data while Naïve Bayesian was the worst performing algorithm for predicting stunting among children under five in Zambia using the 2018 ZDHS dataset. ML models aids quick diagnosis of stunting and the timely development of interventions aimed at preventing stunting

Improving validity of informed consent for biomedical research in Zambia using a laboratory exposure intervention.

BACKGROUND: Complex biomedical research can lead to disquiet in communities with limited exposure to scientific discussions, leading to rumours or to high drop-out rates. We set out to test an intervention designed to address apprehensions commonly encountered in a community where literacy is uncommon, and where complex biomedical research has been conducted for over a decade. We aimed to determine if it could improve the validity of consent. METHODS: Data were collected using focus group discussions, key informant interviews and observations. We designed an intervention that exposed participants to a detailed demonstration of laboratory processes. Each group was interviewed twice in a day, before and after exposure to the intervention in order to assess changes in their views. RESULTS: Factors that motivated people to participate in invasive biomedical research included a desire to stay healthy because of the screening during the recruitment process, regular advice from doctors, free medical services, and trust in the researchers. Inhibiting factors were limited knowledge about samples taken from their bodies during endoscopic procedures, the impact of endoscopy on the function of internal organs, and concerns about the use of biomedical samples. The belief that blood can be used for Satanic practices also created insecurities about drawing of blood samples. Further inhibiting factors included a fear of being labelled as HIV positive if known to consult heath workers repeatedly, and gender inequality. Concerns about the use and storage of blood and tissue samples were overcome by a laboratory exposure intervention. CONCLUSION: Selecting a group of members from target community and engaging them in a laboratory exposure intervention could be a useful tool for enhancing specific aspects of consent for biomedical research. Further work is needed to determine the extent to which improved understanding permeates beyond the immediate group participating in the intervention

Convalescent plasma in patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 (RECOVERY): a randomised controlled, open-label, platform trial

Background: Many patients with COVID-19 have been treated with plasma containing anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. We aimed to evaluate the safety and efficacy of convalescent plasma therapy in patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19. Methods: This randomised, controlled, open-label, platform trial (Randomised Evaluation of COVID-19 Therapy [RECOVERY]) is assessing several possible treatments in patients hospitalised with COVID-19 in the UK. The trial is underway at 177 NHS hospitals from across the UK. Eligible and consenting patients were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive either usual care alone (usual care group) or usual care plus high-titre convalescent plasma (convalescent plasma group). The primary outcome was 28-day mortality, analysed on an intention-to-treat basis. The trial is registered with ISRCTN, 50189673, and ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04381936. Findings: Between May 28, 2020, and Jan 15, 2021, 11558 (71%) of 16287 patients enrolled in RECOVERY were eligible to receive convalescent plasma and were assigned to either the convalescent plasma group or the usual care group. There was no significant difference in 28-day mortality between the two groups: 1399 (24%) of 5795 patients in the convalescent plasma group and 1408 (24%) of 5763 patients in the usual care group died within 28 days (rate ratio 1·00, 95% CI 0·93–1·07; p=0·95). The 28-day mortality rate ratio was similar in all prespecified subgroups of patients, including in those patients without detectable SARS-CoV-2 antibodies at randomisation. Allocation to convalescent plasma had no significant effect on the proportion of patients discharged from hospital within 28 days (3832 [66%] patients in the convalescent plasma group vs 3822 [66%] patients in the usual care group; rate ratio 0·99, 95% CI 0·94–1·03; p=0·57). Among those not on invasive mechanical ventilation at randomisation, there was no significant difference in the proportion of patients meeting the composite endpoint of progression to invasive mechanical ventilation or death (1568 [29%] of 5493 patients in the convalescent plasma group vs 1568 [29%] of 5448 patients in the usual care group; rate ratio 0·99, 95% CI 0·93–1·05; p=0·79). Interpretation: In patients hospitalised with COVID-19, high-titre convalescent plasma did not improve survival or other prespecified clinical outcomes. Funding: UK Research and Innovation (Medical Research Council) and National Institute of Health Research

Tocilizumab in patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 (RECOVERY): a randomised, controlled, open-label, platform trial

Background: In this study, we aimed to evaluate the effects of tocilizumab in adult patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 with both hypoxia and systemic inflammation. Methods: This randomised, controlled, open-label, platform trial (Randomised Evaluation of COVID-19 Therapy [RECOVERY]), is assessing several possible treatments in patients hospitalised with COVID-19 in the UK. Those trial participants with hypoxia (oxygen saturation <92% on air or requiring oxygen therapy) and evidence of systemic inflammation (C-reactive protein ≥75 mg/L) were eligible for random assignment in a 1:1 ratio to usual standard of care alone versus usual standard of care plus tocilizumab at a dose of 400 mg–800 mg (depending on weight) given intravenously. A second dose could be given 12–24 h later if the patient's condition had not improved. The primary outcome was 28-day mortality, assessed in the intention-to-treat population. The trial is registered with ISRCTN (50189673) and ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT04381936). Findings: Between April 23, 2020, and Jan 24, 2021, 4116 adults of 21 550 patients enrolled into the RECOVERY trial were included in the assessment of tocilizumab, including 3385 (82%) patients receiving systemic corticosteroids. Overall, 621 (31%) of the 2022 patients allocated tocilizumab and 729 (35%) of the 2094 patients allocated to usual care died within 28 days (rate ratio 0·85; 95% CI 0·76–0·94; p=0·0028). Consistent results were seen in all prespecified subgroups of patients, including those receiving systemic corticosteroids. Patients allocated to tocilizumab were more likely to be discharged from hospital within 28 days (57% vs 50%; rate ratio 1·22; 1·12–1·33; p<0·0001). Among those not receiving invasive mechanical ventilation at baseline, patients allocated tocilizumab were less likely to reach the composite endpoint of invasive mechanical ventilation or death (35% vs 42%; risk ratio 0·84; 95% CI 0·77–0·92; p<0·0001). Interpretation: In hospitalised COVID-19 patients with hypoxia and systemic inflammation, tocilizumab improved survival and other clinical outcomes. These benefits were seen regardless of the amount of respiratory support and were additional to the benefits of systemic corticosteroids. Funding: UK Research and Innovation (Medical Research Council) and National Institute of Health Research

Changes in T cell subset markers in patients receiving supplements with (LNS-VM) or without (LNS) additional vitamins and minerals.

<p>*p-values determined using Wilcoxon rank-sum tests. Changes in subsets of CD4⁺ and CD8⁺ T cells are presented as median (interquartile range absolute cells/μL and defined as gut homing: α4⁺β7⁺, homing activated: α4⁺β7⁺CD25⁺, recent thymic emigrants: CD45RA⁺CD31⁺, senescent: CD57⁺, naive: CCR7⁺CD45RA⁺, central memory: CCR7⁺CD45RA^-, effector memory: CCR7^-CD45RA^-, effector: CCR7^-CD45RA⁺, activated: HLA-DR⁺ and proliferating and activated: HLD-DR⁺Ki 67⁺; proliferating: Ki67⁺.</p><p>Changes in T cell subset markers in patients receiving supplements with (LNS-VM) or without (LNS) additional vitamins and minerals.</p

Flow of participants through the study.

<p>Flow of participants through the study.</p

Survival among HIV-infected adults initiating antiretroviral therapy according to proliferating and naïve CD4 cell counts.

<p>(Left) Kaplan-Meier plot of survival over time among HIV-infected adults with high (dashed line) or low (solid line) absolute number of CD4⁺ cells expressing the proliferation of marker Ki67 (<i>p</i> = 0.0003 using log rank test). (Right) Kaplan-Meier plot of survival over time among HIV-infected adults with low (dashed line) or high (solid line) absolute number of CD4⁺ cells expressing the naïve markers CD45RA and CCR7 (<i>p</i><0.001 using the log rank test).</p

Immunological Risk Factors for Death Within 12 Weeks of Initiating Antiretroviral Therapy.

<p>All variables were calculated using absolute numbers. 36 participants died within 12 weeks of follow up. All variables were dichotomized; univariate logistic regression models were constructed comparing the upper half of the distribution with the lower half. Multivariate analysis was done using a Cox regression model, and was adjusted for, total CD4 and CD8 counts plus BMI, haemoglobin, sex and grip strength. HR = hazard ratio</p><p>* = significant CI (confidence interval).</p><p>Immunological Risk Factors for Death Within 12 Weeks of Initiating Antiretroviral Therapy.</p

Baseline CD4 and CD8 T cell subsets among those who survived or died and those in LNS or LNS-VM between referral for ART and 12 weeks after starting Antiretroviral Therapy.

<p>*p-values determined using Mann–Whitney U-tests. Subsets of CD4⁺ T cells are presented as median (interquartile range) absolute cells/μL and defined as gut homing: α4⁺β7⁺, homing activated: α4⁺7⁺CD25⁺, recent thymic emigrants: CD45RA⁺CD31⁺, senescent: CD57⁺, naive: CCR7⁺CD45RA⁺, central memory: CCR7⁺CD45RA^-, effector memory: CCR7^-CD45RA^-, effector: CCR7^-CD45RA⁺, activated: HLA-DR⁺, proliferating and activated HLD-DR⁺Ki 67⁺; and proliferating: Ki67⁺.</p><p>Baseline CD4 and CD8 T cell subsets among those who survived or died and those in LNS or LNS-VM between referral for ART and 12 weeks after starting Antiretroviral Therapy.</p

Drivers of informal sector and non-prescription medication use in pediatric populations in a low- and middle-income setting: A prospective cohort study in Zambia.

Obtaining medication from the informal sector is common in low- and middle- income countries. Informal sector use increases the risk for inappropriate medication use, including inappropriate antibiotic usage. Infants are at the highest risk of complications from inappropriate medication use, yet there is insufficient knowledge about the risk factors driving caregivers to obtain medication from the informal sector for young children. We aimed to define infant and illness characteristics associated with use of medication purchased in the informal sector for infants up to fifteen months of age in Zambia. We used data from, a prospective cohort study (ROTA-biotic) conducted among 6 weeks to 15 months old children in Zambia, which is nested within an ongoing phase III rotavirus vaccine trial (Clinicaltrial.gov NCT04010448). Weekly in-person surveys collected information about illness episodes and medication usage for the trial population and for a community control cohort. The primary outcome for this study was whether medication was purchased in the formal sector (hospital or clinic) or informal sector (pharmacy, street vendor, friend/relative/neighbor, or chemical shop) per illness episode. Descriptive analyses were used to describe the study population, and the independent and medication use variables stratified by the outcome. A mixed-effects logistic regression model with a participant-level random intercept was used to identify independent variables associated with the outcome. The analysis included 439 participants accounting for 1927 illness episodes over fourteen months in time. Medication was purchased in the informal sector for 386 (20.0%) illness episodes, and in the formal sector for 1541 (80.0%) illness episodes. Antibiotic usage was less common in the informal sector than in the formal sector (29.3% vs 56.2%, p < 0.001, chi-square). Most medications purchased in the informal sector were orally administered (93.4%), and non-prescribed (78.8%). Increased distance from the closest study site (OR: 1.09; 95% CI: 1.01, 1.17), being included in the community cohort site (OR: 3.18; 95% CI: 1.86, 5.46), illnesses with general malaise fever, or headache (OR: 2.62; 95% CI: 1.75, 3.93), and wound/skin disease (OR: 0.36; 95% CI: 0.18, 0.73) were associated with use of medication from the informal sector. Sex, socioeconomic status, and gastrointestinal disease were not associated with use of medication from the informal sector. Informal sector medication use is common and, in this study, risk factors for obtaining medications in the informal sector included a long distance to a formal clinic, type of illness, and not being enrolled in a clinical trial. Continued research on medication use from the informal sector is crucial and should include generalizable study populations, information on severity of disease, emphasis on qualitative research, and a move towards testing interventions that aim to improve access to formal health care settings. Our findings suggest that improved access to formal health care services may decrease reliance on medication from the informal sector for infants