Projections of multi-morbidity in the older population in England to 2035: estimates from the Population Ageing and Care Simulation (PACSim) model

Background models projecting future disease burden have focussed on one or two diseases. Little is known on how risk factors of younger cohorts will play out in the future burden of multi-morbidity (two or more concurrent long-term conditions).This work forms part of the MODEM project (A comprehensive approach to MODelling outcome and costs impacts of interventions for DEMentia), funded by the UK Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) and the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) (Grant number ES/L001896/1). C.J.’s salary was funded by the AXA Research Fund from 2010 to 2015. C.J. and A.K. also received funding for travel from the Australian Research Council funded Centre of Excellence in Population Ageing Research (CEPAR) project (2014–2017) on which C.J. was an international partner

High prevalence and factors associated with the distribution of the integron intI1 and intI2 genes in Scottish cattle herds

Integrons are genetic elements that capture and express antimicrobial resistance genes within arrays, facilitating horizontal spread of multiple drug resistance in a range of bacterial species. The aim of this study was to estimate prevalence for class 1, 2, and 3 integrons in Scottish cattle and examine whether spatial, seasonal or herd management factors influenced integron herd status. We used fecal samples collected from 108 Scottish cattle herds in a national, cross-sectional survey between 2014 and 2015, and screened fecal DNA extracts by multiplex PCR for the integrase genes intI1, intI2, and intI3. Herd-level prevalence was estimated [95% confidence interval (CI)] for intI1 as 76.9% (67.8–84.0%) and intI2 as 82.4% (73.9–88.6%). We did not detect intI3 in any of the herd samples tested. A regional effect was observed for intI1, highest in the North East (OR 11.5, 95% CI: 1.0–130.9, P = 0.05) and South East (OR 8.7, 95% CI: 1.1–20.9, P = 0.04), lowest in the Highlands. A generalized linear mixed model was used to test for potential associations between herd status and cattle management, soil type and regional livestock density variables. Within the final multivariable model, factors associated with herd positivity for intI1 included spring season of the year (OR 6.3, 95% CI: 1.1–36.4, P = 0.04) and watering cattle from a natural spring source (OR 4.4, 95% CI: 1.3–14.8, P = 0.017), and cattle being housed at the time of sampling for intI2 (OR 75.0, 95% CI: 10.4–540.5, P < 0.001). This study provides baseline estimates for integron prevalence in Scottish cattle and identifies factors that may be associated with carriage that warrant future investigation

MODEM: a comprehensive approach to modelling outcome and costs impacts of interventions for dementia. Protocol paper

Background The MODEM project (A comprehensive approach to MODelling outcome and costs impacts of interventions for DEMentia) explores how changes in arrangements for the future treatment and care of people living with dementia, and support for family and other unpaid carers, could result in better outcomes and more efficient use of resources. Methods MODEM starts with a systematic mapping of the literature on effective and (potentially) cost-effective interventions in dementia care. Those findings, as well as data from a cohort, will then be used to model the quality of life and cost impacts of making these evidence-based interventions more widely available in England over the period from now to 2040. Modelling will use a suite of models, combining microsimulation and macrosimulation methods, modelling the costs and outcomes of care, both for an individual over the life-course from the point of dementia diagnosis, and for individuals and England as a whole in a particular year. Project outputs will include an online Dementia Evidence Toolkit, making evidence summaries and a literature database available free to anyone, papers in academic journals and other written outputs, and a MODEM Legacy Model, which will enable local commissioners of services to apply the model to their own populations. Discussion Modelling the effects of evidence-based cost-effective interventions and making this information widely available has the potential to improve the health and quality of life both of people with dementia and their carers, while ensuring that resources are used efficiently

Near-Infrared Imaging Polarimetry of Inner Region of GG Tau A Disk

By performing non-masked polarization imaging with Subaru/HiCIAO, polarized scattered light from the inner region of the disk around the GG Tau A system was successfully detected in the $H$ band with a spatial resolution of approximately 0.07\arcsec, revealing the complicated inner disk structures around this young binary. This paper reports the observation of an arc-like structure to the north of GG Tau Ab and part of a circumstellar structure that is noticeable around GG Tau Aa extending to a distance of approximately 28 AU from the primary star. The speckle noise around GG Tau Ab constrains its disk radius to <13 AU. Based on the size of the circumbinary ring and the circumstellar disk around GG Tau Aa, the semi-major axis of the binary's orbit is likely to be 62 AU. A comparison of the present observations with previous ALMA and near-infrared (NIR) H$_2$ emission observations suggests that the north arc could be part of a large streamer flowing from the circumbinary ring to sustain the circumstellar disks. According to the previous studies, the circumstellar disk around GG Tau Aa has enough mass and can sustain itself for a duration sufficient for planet formation; thus, our study indicates that planets can form within close (separation $\lesssim$ 100 AU) young binary systems.Comment: Accepted for publication in AJ, 12 pages, 5 figure