Machine learning predicts mortality based on analysis of ventilation parameters of critically ill patients: multi-centre validation

Background Mechanical Ventilation (MV) is a complex and central treatment process in the care of critically ill patients. It influences acid–base balance and can also cause prognostically relevant biotrauma by generating forces and liberating reactive oxygen species, negatively affecting outcomes. In this work we evaluate the use of a Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) modelling to predict outcomes of mechanically ventilated patients, using standard mechanical ventilation parameters. Methods We performed our analysis on VENTILA dataset, an observational, prospective, international, multi-centre study, performed to investigate the effect of baseline characteristics and management changes over time on the all-cause mortality rate in mechanically ventilated patients in ICU. Our cohort includes 12,596 adult patients older than 18, associated with 12,755 distinct admissions in ICUs across 37 countries and receiving invasive and non-invasive mechanical ventilation. We carry out four different analysis. Initially we select typical mechanical ventilation parameters and evaluate the machine learning model on both, the overall cohort and a subgroup of patients admitted with respiratory disorders. Furthermore, we carry out sensitivity analysis to evaluate whether inclusion of variables related to the function of other organs, improve the predictive performance of the model for both the overall cohort as well as the subgroup of patients with respiratory disorders. Results Predictive performance of RNN-based model was higher with Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) Curve (AUC) of 0.72 (± 0.01) and Average Precision (AP) of 0.57 (± 0.01) in comparison to RF and LR for the overall patient dataset. Higher predictive performance was recorded in the subgroup of patients admitted with respiratory disorders with AUC of 0.75 (± 0.02) and AP of 0.65 (± 0.03). Inclusion of function of other organs further improved the performance to AUC of 0.79 (± 0.01) and AP 0.68 (± 0.02) for the overall patient dataset and AUC of 0.79 (± 0.01) and AP 0.72 (± 0.02) for the subgroup with respiratory disorders. Conclusion The RNN-based model demonstrated better performance than RF and LR in patients in mechanical ventilation and its subgroup admitted with respiratory disorders. Clinical studies are needed to evaluate whether it impacts decision-making and patient outcomes

International Nosocomial Infection Control Consortium report, data summary of 50 countries for 2010-2015: Device-associated module

•We report INICC device-associated module data of 50 countries from 2010-2015.•We collected prospective data from 861,284 patients in 703 ICUs for 3,506,562 days.•DA-HAI rates and bacterial resistance were higher in the INICC ICUs than in CDC-NHSN's.•Device utilization ratio in the INICC ICUs was similar to CDC-NHSN's. Background: We report the results of International Nosocomial Infection Control Consortium (INICC) surveillance study from January 2010-December 2015 in 703 intensive care units (ICUs) in Latin America, Europe, Eastern Mediterranean, Southeast Asia, and Western Pacific. Methods: During the 6-year study period, using Centers for Disease Control and Prevention National Healthcare Safety Network (CDC-NHSN) definitions for device-associated health care-associated infection (DA-HAI), we collected prospective data from 861,284 patients hospitalized in INICC hospital ICUs for an aggregate of 3,506,562 days. Results: Although device use in INICC ICUs was similar to that reported from CDC-NHSN ICUs, DA-HAI rates were higher in the INICC ICUs: in the INICC medical-surgical ICUs, the pooled rate of central line-associated bloodstream infection, 4.1 per 1,000 central line-days, was nearly 5-fold higher than the 0.8 per 1,000 central line-days reported from comparable US ICUs, the overall rate of ventilator-associated pneumonia was also higher, 13.1 versus 0.9 per 1,000 ventilator-days, as was the rate of catheter-associated urinary tract infection, 5.07 versus 1.7 per 1,000 catheter-days. From blood cultures samples, frequencies of resistance of Pseudomonas isolates to amikacin (29.87% vs 10%) and to imipenem (44.3% vs 26.1%), and of Klebsiella pneumoniae isolates to ceftazidime (73.2% vs 28.8%) and to imipenem (43.27% vs 12.8%) were also higher in the INICC ICUs compared with CDC-NHSN ICUs. Conclusions: Although DA-HAIs in INICC ICU patients continue to be higher than the rates reported in CDC-NSHN ICUs representing the developed world, we have observed a significant trend toward the reduction of DA-HAI rates in INICC ICUs as shown in each international report. It is INICC's main goal to continue facilitating education, training, and basic and cost-effective tools and resources, such as standardized forms and an online platform, to tackle this problem effectively and systematically