Forecasting models for leprosy cases: a scoping review protocol

Introduction Leprosy is a neglected tropical disease caused by Mycobacterium leprae that mainly affects the skin, the peripheral nerves, the mucosa of the upper respiratory tract and the eyes. Mathematical models and statistical methodologies could play an important role in decision-making and help maintain the gains in elimination programmes. Various models for predicting leprosy cases have been reported in the literature, but they have different settings and distinct approaches to predicting the cases. This study describes the protocol for a scoping review to identify and synthesise information from studies using models to forecast leprosy cases.Methods and analysis A scoping review methodology will be applied following the Joanna Briggs Institute methodology for scoping reviews and will be reported according to Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analysis Extension for Scoping Reviews. We will perform a systematic search from when each database started until April 2022 and we will include the following electronic databases: MEDLINE via PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library and Latin American and Caribbean Health Science Literature Database. Data will be extracted and recorded on a calibrated predefined data form and will be presented in a tabular form accompanied by a descriptive summary. The Prediction Model Study Risk of Bias Assessment Tool (PROBAST) will be used.Ethics and dissemination No ethical approval is required for this study. This scoping review will identify and map the methodological and other characteristics of modelling studies predicting leprosy cases. We hope that the review will contribute to scientific knowledge in this area and act as a basis for researchers designing and conducting leprosy models. This information can also be used to enhance national surveillance systems and to target specific policies. The protocol and consequent publications of this scoping review will be disseminated through peer-reviewed publications and policy briefs.Systematic review registration This scoping review was registered in the Open Science Framework (https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/W9375)

Antimicrobial resistance among leprosy patients in Brazil : real-world data based on the national surveillance plan

Brazil ranks second among countries for new cases and first for relapse cases of leprosy worldwide. The Mycobacterium leprae Resistance Surveillance Plan was established. We aimed to present the results of a 2-year follow-up of the National Surveillance Plan in Brazil. A cross-sectional study of leprosy cases was performed to investigate antimicrobial resistance (AMR) in Brazil from October 2018 to September 2020. Molecular screening targeting genes related to dapsone (folP1), rifampin (rpoB), and ofloxacin resistance (gyrA) was performed. During the referral period, 63,520 active leprosy patients were registered in Brazil, and 1,183 fulfilled the inclusion criteria for molecular AMR investigation. In total, only 16 (1.4%) patients had genetic polymorphisms associated with AMR. Of these, 8 (50%) had cases of leprosy relapse, 7 (43.8%) had cases of suspected therapeutic failure with standard treatment, and 1 (6.2%) was a case of new leprosy presentation. M. leprae strains with AMR-associated mutations were found for all three genes screened. Isolates from two patients showed simultaneous resistance to dapsone and rifampin, indicating multidrug resistance (MDR). No significant relationship between clinical variables and the presence of AMR was identified. Our study revealed a low frequency of AMR in Brazil. Isolates were resistant mainly to dapsone, and a very low number of isolates were resistant to rifampin, the main bactericidal agent for leprosy, or presented MDR, reinforcing the importance of the standard World Health Organization multidrug therapy. The greater frequency of AMR among relapsed patients supports the need to constantly monitor this group