Predictability of Self-Organizing Systems

We study the predictability of large events in self-organizing systems. We focus on a set of models which have been studied as analogs of earthquake faults and fault systems, and apply methods based on techniques which are of current interest in seismology. In all cases we find detectable correlations between precursory smaller events and the large events we aim to forecast. We compare predictions based on different patterns of precursory events and find that for all of the models a new precursor based on the spatial distribution of activity outperforms more traditional measures based on temporal variations in the local activity.Comment: 15 pages, plain.tex with special macros included, 4 figure

Edge-weighting of gene expression graphs

In recent years, considerable research efforts have been directed to micro-array technologies and their role in providing simultaneous information on expression profiles for thousands of genes. These data, when subjected to clustering and classification procedures, can assist in identifying patterns and providing insight on biological processes. To understand the properties of complex gene expression datasets, graphical representations can be used. Intuitively, the data can be represented in terms of a bipartite graph, with weighted edges corresponding to gene-sample node couples in the dataset. Biologically meaningful subgraphs can be sought, but performance can be influenced both by the search algorithm, and, by the graph-weighting scheme and both merit rigorous investigation. In this paper, we focus on edge-weighting schemes for bipartite graphical representation of gene expression. Two novel methods are presented: the first is based on empirical evidence; the second on a geometric distribution. The schemes are compared for several real datasets, assessing efficiency of performance based on four essential properties: robustness to noise and missing values, discrimination, parameter influence on scheme efficiency and reusability. Recommendations and limitations are briefly discussed

Penguins leaving the pole: bound-state effects in B decaying to K* + photon

Applying perturbative QCD methods recently seen to give a good description of the two body hadronic decays of the B meson, we address the question of bound-state effects on the decay B into K* + gamma. Consistent with most analyses, we demonstrate that gluonic penguins, with photonic bremsstrahlung off a quark, change the decay rate by only a few percent. However, explicit off-shell b-quark effects normally discarded are found to be large in amplitude, although in the standard model accidents of phase minimize the effect on the rate. Using an asymptotic distribution amplitude for the K* and just the standard model, we can obtain a branching ratio of a few times 10^{-5}, consistent with the observed rate.Comment: 12 pages. U. of MD PP \#94-129; DOE/ER/40762-033; WM-94-104. LaTeX, One figure, available by fax or pos

Experimental and Theoretical Results for Weak Charge Current Backward Proton Production

In this paper, we do three things in the study of deuteron break-up by high energy neutrino beams. (1) We present previously unpublished data on neutrino induced backward protons from deuteron targets; (2) we calculate the contributions from both the two-nucleon (2N) and six-quark (6q) deuteron components, which depend upon the overall normalization of the part that is 6q; and (3) we suggest other signatures for distinguishing the 2N and 6q clusters. We conclude that the 6q cluster easily explains the shape of the high momentum backward proton spectrum, and its size is nicely explained if the amount of 6q is one or a few percent by normalization of the deuteron. There is a crossover, above which the 6q contribution is important or dominant, at 300--400 MeV/c backward proton momentum.Comment: 8 pages, 5 figure

Study of a Threshold Cherenkov Counter Based on Silica Aerogels with Low Refractive Indices

To identify $\pi^{\pm}$ and $K^{\pm}$ in the region of $1.0\sim 2.5$ GeV/c, a threshold Cherenkov counter equipped with silica aerogels has been investigated. Silica aerogels with a low refractive index of 1.013 have been successfully produced using a new technique. By making use of these aerogels as radiators, we have constructed a Cherenkov counter and have checked its properties in a test beam. The obtained results have demonstrated that our aerogel was transparent enough to make up for loss of the Cherenkov photon yield due to a low refractive index. Various configurations for the photon collection system and some types of photomultipliers, such as the fine-mesh type, for a read out were also tested. From these studies, our design of a Cherenkov counter dedicated to $\pi / K$ separation up to a few GeV/c %in the momentum range of $1.0 \sim 2.5$ GeV/c with an efficiency greater than $90$ \% was considered.Comment: 21 pages, latex format (article), figures included, to be published in Nucl. Instrm. Meth.

Simulation study of spatio-temporal correlations of earthquakes as a stick-slip frictional instability

Spatio-temporal correlations of earthquakes are studied numerically on the basis of the one-dimensional spring-block (Burridge-Knopoff) model. As large events approach, the frequency of smaller events gradually increases, while, just before the mainshock, it is dramatically suppressed in a close vicinity of the epicenter of the upcoming mainshock, a phenomenon closely resembling the ``Mogi doughnut'