Country Risk and the Mundell-Fleming Model Applied to the 1999-2000 Argentine Experience

In this paper we propose a modification of the traditional Mundell-Fleming model. The extended model introduces the implications of including the fiscal deficit and international reserves as determinants of the level of country risk. This slight modification of the traditional paradigm leads to radical changes in the effects that fiscal and monetary policies have in economies with high capital mobility under an extreme version of a fixed exchange rate regime (Currency Board). We use the proposed model to evaluate some of the economic policies implemented between December 1999 and March 2001 by the first economic team under the Presidency of Fernando De la Rúa in Argentina. Additionally, we suggest that some of the main results obtained from the model are applicable to other emerging economies.open economy macroeconomics; country risk for Argentina; reserves; convertibility

A Declarative Semantics for CLP with Qualification and Proximity

Uncertainty in Logic Programming has been investigated during the last decades, dealing with various extensions of the classical LP paradigm and different applications. Existing proposals rely on different approaches, such as clause annotations based on uncertain truth values, qualification values as a generalization of uncertain truth values, and unification based on proximity relations. On the other hand, the CLP scheme has established itself as a powerful extension of LP that supports efficient computation over specialized domains while keeping a clean declarative semantics. In this paper we propose a new scheme SQCLP designed as an extension of CLP that supports qualification values and proximity relations. We show that several previous proposals can be viewed as particular cases of the new scheme, obtained by partial instantiation. We present a declarative semantics for SQCLP that is based on observables, providing fixpoint and proof-theoretical characterizations of least program models as well as an implementation-independent notion of goal solutions.Comment: 17 pages, 26th Int'l. Conference on Logic Programming (ICLP'10

One model, two languages: training bilingual parsers with harmonized treebanks

We introduce an approach to train lexicalized parsers using bilingual corpora obtained by merging harmonized treebanks of different languages, producing parsers that can analyze sentences in either of the learned languages, or even sentences that mix both. We test the approach on the Universal Dependency Treebanks, training with MaltParser and MaltOptimizer. The results show that these bilingual parsers are more than competitive, as most combinations not only preserve accuracy, but some even achieve significant improvements over the corresponding monolingual parsers. Preliminary experiments also show the approach to be promising on texts with code-switching and when more languages are added.Comment: 7 pages, 4 tables, 1 figur

A Transformation-based Implementation for CLP with Qualification and Proximity

Uncertainty in logic programming has been widely investigated in the last decades, leading to multiple extensions of the classical LP paradigm. However, few of these are designed as extensions of the well-established and powerful CLP scheme for Constraint Logic Programming. In a previous work we have proposed the SQCLP (proximity-based qualified constraint logic programming) scheme as a quite expressive extension of CLP with support for qualification values and proximity relations as generalizations of uncertainty values and similarity relations, respectively. In this paper we provide a transformation technique for transforming SQCLP programs and goals into semantically equivalent CLP programs and goals, and a practical Prolog-based implementation of some particularly useful instances of the SQCLP scheme. We also illustrate, by showing some simple-and working-examples, how the prototype can be effectively used as a tool for solving problems where qualification values and proximity relations play a key role. Intended use of SQCLP includes flexible information retrieval applications.Comment: 49 pages, 5 figures, 1 table, preliminary version of an article of the same title, published as Technical Report SIC-4-10, Universidad Complutense, Departamento de Sistemas Inform\'aticos y Computaci\'on, Madrid, Spai

Managing Waiting Times to Predict No-shows and Cancelations at a Children’s Hospital

Purpose: Since long waits in hospitals have been found to be related to high rates of no-shows and cancelations, managing waiting times should be considered as an important tool that hospitals can use to reduce missed appointments. The aim of this study is to analyze patients’ behavior in order to predict no-show and cancelation rates correlated to waiting times. Design/methodology/approach: This study is based on the data from a US children’s hospital, which includes all the appointments registered during one year of observation. We used the call-appointment interval to establish the wait time to get an appointment. Four different types of appointment-keeping behavior and two types of patients were distinguished: arrival, no-show, cancelation with no reschedule, and cancelation with reschedule; and new and established patients. Findings: Results confirmed a strong impact of long waiting times on patients’ appointment-keeping behavior, and the logarithmic regression was found as the best-fit function for the correlation between variables in all cases. The correlation analysis showed that new patients tend to miss appointments more often than established patients when the waiting time increases. It was also found that, depending on the patients’ appointment distribution, it might get more complicated for hospitals to reduce missed appointments as the waiting time is reduced. Originality/value: The methodology applied in our study, which combines the use of regression analysis and patients’ appointment distribution analysis, would help health care managers to understand the initial implications of long waiting times and to address improvement related to patient satisfaction and hospital performance.Peer Reviewe