Historical analysis of U.S. electricity markets: Reassessing carbon lock-in

This paper evaluates whether the U.S. electricity sector is directed away from carbon- intensive technological lock-in, and which factors are contributing, or have potential to contribute, to a possible reorientation of the industry. With the application of a historical analysis of the electricity sector from the late nineteenth century through current day, this analysis finds that, although the industry still relies primarily on carbon-intensive fossil fuel operations, several recent trends indicate that the industry is becoming less carbon intensive, smaller in generation system scale, and more sustainable in operations. Crucial drivers—firm level interactions with technological change, industry leadership and market structure, government intervention and policy momentum, and citizen involvement and behavior patterns—that have traditionally shaped the structure, scale, and environmental footprint of the industry, have also played a prominent role in recent transformations. These results indicate that triggering or extraordinary events may not be necessary to initiate an escape from carbon lock-in in the electricity sector. Complete escape is not yet definitive, however, and it remains to be seen whether the industry is able to transform entirely before any significant climate change disturbances occur

Nevada’s Net Energy Metering Experience: The Making of a Policy Eclipse?

Developments in Nevada pose important questions about the future of solar power and net metering in the United States. What information and processes led to Nevada’s decision? Was the information that decision-makers considered consistent with best practices and with the information relied on by other states? How does Nevada’s decision compare with other states evaluating changes to their net metering policies

Decarbonization of the U.S. electricity sector: Are state energy policy portfolios the solution?

State governments have taken the lead on U.S. energy and climate policy. It is not yet clear, however, whether state energy policy portfolios can generate results in a similar magnitude or manner to their presumed carbon mitigation potential. This article seeks to address this lack of policy evidence and contribute empirical insights on the carbon mitigation effects of state energy portfolios within the U.S. electricity sector. Using a dynamic, long-term electricity dispatch model with U.S. power plant, utility, and transmission and distribution data between 2010 and 2030, this analysis builds a series of state-level policy portfolio scenarios and performs a comparative scenario analysis. Results reveal that state policy portfolios have modest to minimal carbon mitigation effects in the long run if surrounding states do not adopt similar portfolios as well. The difference in decarbonization potential between isolated state policies and larger, more coordinated policy efforts is due in large part to carbon leakage, which is the export of carbon intensive fossil fuel-based electricity across state lines. Results also confirm that a carbon price of $50/metric ton CO2e can generate substantial carbon savings. Although both policy options—an energy policy portfolio or a carbon price—are effective at reducing carbon emissions in the present analysis, neither is as effective alone as when the two strategies are combined

Decarbonization of the U.S. electricity sector: Are state energy policy portfolios the solution?

State governments have taken the lead on U.S. energy and climate policy. It is not yet clear, however, whether state energy policy portfolios can generate results in a similar magnitude or manner to their presumed carbon mitigation potential. This article seeks to address this lack of policy evidence and contribute empirical insights on the carbon mitigation effects of state energy portfolios within the U.S. electricity sector. Using a dynamic, long-term electricity dispatch model with U.S. power plant, utility, and transmission and distribution data between 2010 and 2030, this analysis builds a series of state-level policy portfolio scenarios and performs a comparative scenario analysis. Results reveal that state policy portfolios have modest to minimal carbon mitigation effects in the long run if surrounding states do not adopt similar portfolios as well. The difference in decarbonization potential between isolated state policies and larger, more coordinated policy efforts is due in large part to carbon leakage, which is the export of carbon intensive fossil fuel-based electricity across state lines. Results also confirm that a carbon price of $50/metric ton CO2e can generate substantial carbon savings. Although both policy options—an energy policy portfolio or a carbon price—are effective at reducing carbon emissions in the present analysis, neither is as effective alone as when the two strategies are combined

Decarbonization of the U.S. electricity sector: Are state energy policy portfolios the solution?

State governments have taken the lead on U.S. energy and climate policy. It is not yet clear, however, whether state energy policy portfolios can generate results in a similar magnitude or manner to their presumed carbon mitigation potential. This article seeks to address this lack of policy evidence and contribute empirical insights on the carbon mitigation effects of state energy portfolios within the U.S. electricity sector. Using a dynamic, long-term electricity dispatch model with U.S. power plant, utility, and transmission and distribution data between 2010 and 2030, this analysis builds a series of state-level policy portfolio scenarios and performs a comparative scenario analysis. Results reveal that state policy portfolios have modest to minimal carbon mitigation effects in the long run if surrounding states do not adopt similar portfolios as well. The difference in decarbonization potential between isolated state policies and larger, more coordinated policy efforts is due in large part to carbon leakage, which is the export of carbon intensive fossil fuel-based electricity across state lines. Results also confirm that a carbon price of $50/metric ton CO2e can generate substantial carbon savings. Although both policy options—an energy policy portfolio or a carbon price—are effective at reducing carbon emissions in the present analysis, neither is as effective alone as when the two strategies are combined

Emerging Shadows in National Solar Policy? Nevada\u27s Net Metering Transition in Context

Nevada recently overhauled its net energy metering policy, and instituted a new net billing program in its place. Nevada’s decision received significant attention across the nation, and raised the question whether other states will follow suit. This article reviews the process and decisions in Nevada that led to these policy changes, and puts Nevada’s experience in the context of national solar industry and net metering policy trends. Observing that pressure to change net metering policies is likely to increase across the U.S., the article concludes with insights that other states can glean from Nevada’s experience

Electricity diversification, decentralization, and decarbonization: the role of U.S. state energy policy

In response to mounting concerns about climate change and an over-dependence on fossil fuels, U.S. state governments have assumed leadership roles in energy policy. State leaders across the country have constructed policies that target electricity sector operations, and aim to increase the percentage of renewable electricity generation, increase the use of distributed generation, and decrease carbon footprints. The policy literature, however, lacks compelling empirical evidence that state initiatives toward these ends are effective. This research seeks to contribute empirical insights that can help fill this void in the literature, and advance policy knowledge about the efficacy of these instruments. This three-essay dissertation focuses on the assessment of state energy policy instruments aimed at the diversification, decentralization, and decarbonization of the U.S. electricity sector. The first essay considers the effects of state efforts to diversify electricity portfolios via increases in renewable energy. This essay asks: are state-level renewable portfolio standards (RPS) effective at increasing renewable energy deployment, as well as the share of renewable energy out of the total generation mix? Empirical results demonstrate that RPS policies so far are effectively encouraging total renewable energy deployment, but not the percentage of renewable energy generation. The second essay considers state policy efforts to decentralize the U.S. electricity sector via instruments that remove barriers to distributed generation (DG) deployment. The primary question this essay addresses is whether the removal of legal barriers acts as a primary motivating factor for DG deployment. Empirical results reveal that net metering policies are positively associated with DG deployment; interconnection standards significantly increase the likelihood that end-users will adopt DG capacity; and utility DG adoption is related to standard market forces. The third essay asks: what are the potential effects of state energy policy portfolios on carbon emissions within the U.S. electricity sector? The results from an electricity modeling scenario analysis reveal that state policy portfolios have modest to minimal carbon mitigation effects in the long run if surrounding states do not adopt similar portfolios as well. The effectiveness of state-level policy portfolios can increase significantly if surrounding states adopt similar portfolios, or with the introduction of a national carbon price

Energy-Based Economic Development

The fields of economic development and energy policy and planning have converged in recent years to form an emerging discipline, which we term “energy-based economic development” (EBED). Despite the significant amount of stimulus funds, as well as state and local funding, that are being allocated to EBED initiatives in the United States, the emerging discipline has received scant attention in the energy, policy, and development literature. The link between energy and economic development in the literature is still theoretical, mostly focused on the need for and the potential benefits of EBED, and rarely applied. Furthermore, funding for EBED has outpaced understanding of the discipline, development of rigorous technical approaches, and meaningful ways to measure impact. Such information would not only help practitioners and policymakers more thoroughly understand the confines of the discipline and shape goals and approaches accordingly, but it would also help researchers identify, track, and evaluate a variety of activities in the field. With national and international attention focused on the convergence of these fields, researchers and practitioners have a rare opportunity to develop and implement the tools necessary to evaluate and communicate the potentially broader impacts that EBED may hold for society. If ways to leverage and sustain the injection of funds in this discipline are not identified, the opportunity may end before we can achieve either energy policy or economic development goals. In an attempt to respond to this need, this analysis explores the connection between energy and economic development, beginning with a review of the trends in each field and the goals that each seeks to achieve. On the basis of this information, we define the discipline of EBED, review the existing literature on it, and offer insights and perspectives on its emergence