Políticas de Reservas Internacionales y Efectividad de la Intervención Cambiaria en Colombia

En este trabajo analizamos algunos aspectos sobre las políticas de reservas internacionales y la intervención cambiaria en Colombia en los últimos años. En particular, discutimos el nivel adecuado de las reservas internacionales, la gestión de los portafolios de reservas y la efectividad de la intervención cambiaria. Argumentamos que el fuerte aumento de la participación de inversionistas extranjeros en los mercados de capitales locales registrado desde 2014 ha implicado una reflexión sobre el nivel adecuado de liquidez externa del país. Respecto a la efectividad de la intervención cambiaria esterilizada, encontramos que la incertidumbre cambiaria, capturada a través de la volatilidad de la tasa de cambio a 1 mes, magnifica el efecto de la intervención en aproximadamente 1% y sus efectos perduran durante 3 semanas.Two FX policy issues are discussed based on the recent Colombian experience. First, the increased participation of foreign investors in local bond markets since 2014 induced a re-assessment of international reserve adequacy. We present the resulting LCR-type methodology to evaluate adequacy, together with a brief description of the international reserve management strategy in Colombia. Second, we shed some light on the debate regarding the effectiveness of sterilized FX intervention, showing that exchange rate effects depend on the “flimsiness” of exchange rate expectations or their fundamental determinants. To support this, we provide both empirical and theoretical evidence.Enfoque El nivel adecuado de reservas internacionales, la gestión de los portafolios de reservas y la efectividad de la intervención cambiaria han sido temas importantes de política en Colombia en los últimos años. Este trabajo resume algunos aspectos de estos temas y explica algunas decisiones de política en torno a ellos. En primer lugar, el fuerte aumento de la participación de inversionistas extranjeros en los mercados de capitales locales registrado desde 2014 ha suscitado una reflexión sobre el nivel adecuado de liquidez externa del país. En segundo lugar, la presencia de un saldo creciente de reservas internacionales ha motivado cambios en el manejo de los portafolios en los que se invierten. Y, en tercer lugar, la volatilidad de la tasa de cambio o de sus determinantes fundamentales ha generado interés sobre su impacto en la potencia de la intervención cambiaria esterilizada para afectar la tasa de cambio nominal. Contribución La primera parte de este documento describe en detalle la definición de una nueva metodología cercana a un indicador de liquidez bancaria para evaluar la suficiencia de las reservas internacionales. En la segunda parte, se explica en algún detalle la gestión del portafolio de reservas internacionales en dos tramos, según criterios de liquidez y composición cambiaria. Por último, se postula un nuevo determinante de la efectividad de la intervención cambiaria esterilizada. Se plantea un modelo de equilibrio parcial para explicar este canal y se presenta evidencia empírica. Resultados El documento explica los criterios utilizados en la determinación del nivel adecuado de reservas y en la gestión del portafolio en el que se invierten. Respecto a la efectividad de la intervención cambiaria esterilizada, se encuentra que la incertidumbre cambiaria, capturada a través de la volatilidad de la tasa de cambio a 1 mes, magnifica el efecto de la intervención en aproximadamente 1% y sus efectos perduran durante 3 semanas (20 días hábiles). Los resultados son robustos a diferentes medidas de incertidumbre, tanto sobre la tasa de cambio, como sobre sus fundamentales

Mercado interbancario colombiano y manejo de liquidez del Banco de la República

El presente trabajo tiene como propósito describir alguno de los elementos fundamentales que componen el mercado interbancario colombiano. La primera sección explica las diferencias entre sus principales operaciones y describe los sistemas electrónicos mediante los cuales se negocian o registran dichas operaciones.La segunda sección describe el manejo de liquidez por parte del Banco el La República, esto es, los mecanismos mediante los cuales este suministra liquidez o recoge exceso de la misma en el sistema financiero. La tercera sección describe tres metodologías generales para el suministro de liquidez por parte de un banco central al sistema financiero y explica cuál en particular corresponde al caso colombiano. La última sección concluye

Payment Systems Report - June of 2019

For the last decade, Banco de la República has provided oversight of the local financial infrastructure as an additional contribution to support the country’s financial stability. This is a function performed by most central banks the world over, because they recognize infrastructure as being an essential component of financial markets. Infrastructure that functions properly helps to maintain and promote financial stability, being that it plays a fundamental role in the financial system and in the economy. In the Colombian case, the oversight of the country’s financial infrastructures began formally a decade ago, when External Resolution 5/2009 was issued and the authority to oversight that infrastructures was given to Banco de la República by its Board of Directors. Since then, the oversight has been formal and systematic. To commemorate ublication of the tenth edition of the Payment Systems Report, which is one of the products of financial infrastructure oversight, a section describing this function is included herein, explaining its need, responsibilities, scope, and activities. On this occasion, in addition to the traditional section providing figures on the local financial infrastructure and describing its behavior (Section One), we have included several highlights that underscore the more relevant aspects of how infrastructure for clearing and settling financial assets has evolved in the last decade. Special emphasis is afforded to the Colombian Central Counterparty Clearing House (CRCC), marking its ten years of operation. There also is a box describing how the company has increased its supply of products for clearing and settlement, and how, as a result, the open positions of its settlement members have performed likewise. At the same time, its risk management model has evolved structurally in response to regulatory adjustments, compliance with international standards, or decisions taken unilaterally by the CRCC, the idea being to have the necessary resources to mitigate exposure to counterparty and liquidity risk. In this way, the CRCC has become a undamentally important player in the Colombian financial market. Therefore, it is appropriate that the CRCC continue to be monitored by the country’s financial authorities. Another box included in this report offers an analysis of the advantages and disadvantages of lengthening the cash market settlement period in Colombia, which is another topic of interest. Currently, the clearing and settlement time for a cash transaction in most international markets is two business days (t + 2). In Colombia, nearly all peso/dollar and government and private debt transactions on the spot market are cleared and settled on the same trading day (t + 0). This box analyzes the possible implications of Colombia approximating the international standard. Retail-value payment systems (understood as operations carried out within the circuit of private individuals and companies), such as the use of payment instruments (cash, debit and credit cards, checks and electronic funds transfers), also must be monitored to identify their availability and the public’s preferences for these instruments and their acceptance by commercial establishments. With that in mind, three surveys have been conducted in the last decade to gauge how the use of payment instruments is perceived. A comparison of the findings of these three measurements is presented in a section of this report, and an analysis of that comparison indicates the use of payment instruments other than cash for daily payments is still low. Although their ownership and use by the general public is increasing, their acceptance by some commercial establishments remains limited. In keeping with efforts to oversight innovations in payment processes, the report also includes a box that explores the participation of large, global technology companies in the retail-value payment market. The payment services they offer are associated with innovative payment methods, such as “non-contact” or indirect technology, or by means of devices such as mobile phones, the use of debit and credit cards via applications, and channels such as the mobile network, POS terminals, and the Internet. In other words, these innovations are concentrated in the first stage of the payment process, without altering the other stages, such as traditional payment instruments, channels and systems. Finally, with respect to work in the area of applied research, the fourth section of this report describes how the cryptoasset system operates. It has two fundamental elements. The first is comprised of the agents who participate in the system; namely, cryptoasset users, and the agents who provide them with services. The second includes the digital asset and the underlying technology platform; together they support interaction between the agents in the crypto asset system. As explained in the respective box, the cryptoasset system is not isolated entirely from the financial system, which it pretends do without. In other words, users cannot extract themselves from the traditional financial system as long as cryptoassets have yet to be adopted on a mass scale, which so far assumes there is a connection between both systems. Juan José Echavarría Governo

Payment Systems Report - June of 2021

Banco de la República provides a comprehensive overview of Colombia’s finan¬cial infrastructure in its Payment Systems Report, which is an important product of the work it does to oversee that infrastructure. The figures published in this edition of the report are for the year 2020, a pandemic period in which the con¬tainment measures designed and adopted to alleviate the strain on the health system led to a sharp reduction in economic activity and consumption in Colom¬bia, as was the case in most countries. At the start of the pandemic, the Board of Directors of Banco de la República adopted decisions that were necessary to supply the market with ample liquid¬ity in pesos and US dollars to guarantee market stability, protect the payment system and preserve the supply of credit. The pronounced growth in mone¬tary aggregates reflected an increased preference for liquidity, which Banco de la República addressed at the right time. These decisions were implemented through operations that were cleared and settled via the financial infrastructure. The second section of this report, following the introduction, offers an analysis of how the various financial infrastructures in Colombia have evolved and per¬formed. One of the highlights is the large-value payment system (CUD), which registered more momentum in 2020 than during the previous year, mainly be¬cause of an increase in average daily remunerated deposits made with Banco de la República by the General Directorate of Public Credit and the National Treasury (DGCPTN), as well as more activity in the sell/buy-back market with sovereign debt. Consequently, with more activity in the CUD, the Central Securi¬ties Depository (DCV) experienced an added impetus sparked by an increase in the money market for bonds and securities placed on the primary market by the national government. The value of operations cleared and settled through the Colombian Central Counterparty (CRCC) continues to grow, propelled largely by peso/dollar non-deliverable forward (NDF) contracts. With respect to the CRCC, it is important to note this clearing house has been in charge of managing risks and clearing and settling operations in the peso/dollar spot market since the end of last year, following its merger with the Foreign Exchange Clearing House of Colombia (CCDC). Since the final quarter of 2020, the CRCC has also been re¬sponsible for clearing and settlement in the equities market, which was former¬ly done by the Colombian Stock Exchange (BVC). The third section of this report provides an all-inclusive view of payments in the market for goods and services; namely, transactions carried out by members of the public and non-financial institutions. During the pandemic, inter- and intra-bank electronic funds transfers, which originate mostly with companies, increased in both the number and value of transactions with respect to 2019. However, debit and credit card payments, which are made largely by private citizens, declined compared to 2019. The incidence of payment by check contin¬ue to drop, exhibiting quite a pronounced downward trend during the past last year. To supplement to the information on electronic funds transfers, section three includes a segment (Box 4) characterizing the population with savings and checking accounts, based on data from a survey by Banco de la República con-cerning the perception of the use of payment instruments in 2019. There also is segment (Box 2) on the growth in transactions with a mobile wallet provided by a company specialized in electronic deposits and payments (Sedpe). It shows the number of users and the value of their transactions have increased since the wallet was introduced in late 2017, particularly during the pandemic. In addition, there is a diagnosis of the effects of the pandemic on the payment patterns of the population, based on data related to the use of cash in circu¬lation, payments with electronic instruments, and consumption and consumer confidence. The conclusion is that the collapse in the consumer confidence in¬dex and the drop in private consumption led to changes in the public’s pay¬ment patterns. Credit and debit card purchases were down, while payments for goods and services through electronic funds transfers increased. These findings, coupled with the considerable increase in cash in circulation, might indicate a possible precautionary cash hoarding by individuals and more use of cash as a payment instrument. There is also a segment (in Focus 3) on the major changes introduced in regulations on the retail-value payment system in Colombia, as provided for in Decree 1692 of December 2020. The fourth section of this report refers to the important innovations and tech¬nological changes that have occurred in the retail-value payment system. Four themes are highlighted in this respect. The first is a key point in building the financial infrastructure for instant payments. It involves of the design and im¬plementation of overlay schemes, a technological development that allows the various participants in the payment chain to communicate openly. The result is a high degree of interoperability among the different payment service providers. The second topic explores developments in the international debate on central bank digital currency (CBDC). The purpose is to understand how it could impact the retail-value payment system and the use of cash if it were to be issued. The third topic is related to new forms of payment initiation, such as QR codes, bio¬metrics or near field communication (NFC) technology. These seemingly small changes can have a major impact on the user’s experience with the retail-value payment system. The fourth theme is the growth in payments via mobile tele¬phone and the internet. The report ends in section five with a review of two papers on applied research done at Banco de la República in 2020. The first analyzes the extent of the CRCC’s capital, acknowledging the relevant role this infrastructure has acquired in pro¬viding clearing and settlement services for various financial markets in Colom¬bia. The capital requirements defined for central counterparties in some jurisdic¬tions are explored, and the risks to be hedged are identified from the standpoint of the service these type of institutions offer to the market and those associated with their corporate activity. The CRCC’s capital levels are analyzed in light of what has been observed in the European Union’s regulations, and the conclusion is that the CRCC has a scheme of security rings very similar to those applied internationally and the extent of its capital exceeds what is stipulated in Colombian regulations, being sufficient to hedge other risks. The second study presents an algorithm used to identify and quantify the liquidity sources that CUD’s participants use under normal conditions to meet their daily obligations in the local financial market. This algorithm can be used as a tool to monitor intraday liquidity. Leonardo Villar Gómez Governo

Payment Systems Report - June of 2020

With its annual Payment Systems Report, Banco de la República offers a complete overview of the infrastructure of Colombia’s financial market. Each edition of the report has four objectives: 1) to publicize a consolidated account of how the figures for payment infrastructures have evolved with respect to both financial assets and goods and services; 2) to summarize the issues that are being debated internationally and are of interest to the industry that provides payment clearing and settlement services; 3) to offer the public an explanation of the ideas and concepts behind retail-value payment processes and the trends in retail payments within the circuit of individuals and companies; and 4) to familiarize the public, the industry, and all other financial authorities with the methodological progress that has been achieved through applied research to analyze the stability of payment systems. This edition introduces changes that have been made in the structure of the report, which are intended to make it easier and more enjoyable to read. The initial sections in this edition, which is the eleventh, contain an analysis of the statistics on the evolution and performance of financial market infrastructures. These are understood as multilateral systems wherein the participating entities clear, settle and register payments, securities, derivatives and other financial assets. The large-value payment system (CUD) saw less momentum in 2019 than it did the year before, mainly because of a decline in the amount of secondary market operations for government bonds, both in cash and sell/buy-backs, which was offset by an increase in operations with collective investment funds (CIFs) and Banco de la República’s operations to increase the money supply (repos). Consequently, the Central Securities Depository (DCV) registered less activity, due to fewer negotiations on the secondary market for public debt. This trend was also observed in the private debt market, as evidenced by the decline in the average amounts cleared and settled through the Central Securities Depository of Colombia (Deceval) and in the value of operations with financial derivatives cleared and settled through the Central Counterparty of Colombia (CRCC). Section three offers a comprehensive look at the market for retail-value payments; that is, transactions made by individuals and companies. During 2019, electronic transfers increased, and payments made with debit and credit cards continued to trend upward. In contrast, payments by check continued to decline, although the average daily value was almost four times the value of debit and credit card purchases. The same section contains the results of the fourth survey on how the use of retail-value payment instruments (for usual payments) is perceived. Conducted at the end of 2019, the main purpose of the survey was to identify the availability of these payment instruments, the public’s preferences for them, and their acceptance by merchants. It is worth noting that cash continues to be the instrument most used by the population for usual monthly payments (88.1% with respect to the number of payments and 87.4% in value). However, its use in terms of value has declined, having registered 89.6% in the 2017 survey. In turn, the level of acceptance by merchants of payment instruments other than cash is 14.1% for debit cards, 13.4% for credit cards, 8.2% for electronic transfers of funds and 1.8% for checks. The main reason for the use of cash is the absence of point-of-sale terminals at commercial establishments. Considering that the retail-payment market worldwide is influenced by constant innovation in payment services, by the modernization of clearing and settlement systems, and by the efforts of regulators to redefine the payment industry for the future, these trends are addressed in the fourth section of the report. There is an account of how innovations in technology-based financial payment services have developed, and it shows that while this topic is not new, it has evolved, particularly in terms of origin and vocation. One of the boxes that accompanies the fourth section deals with certain payment aspects of open banking and international experience in that regard, which has given the customers of a financial entity sovereignty over their data, allowing them, under transparent and secure conditions, to authorize a third party, other than their financial entity, to request information on their accounts with financial entities, thus enabling the third party to offer various financial services or initiate payments. Innovation also has sparked interest among international organizations, central banks, and research groups concerning the creation of digital currencies. Accordingly, the last box deals with the recent international debate on issuance of central bank digital currencies. In terms of the methodological progress that has been made, it is important to underscore the work that has been done on the role of central counterparties (CCPs) in mitigating liquidity and counterparty risk. The fifth section of the report offers an explanation of a document in which the work of CCPs in financial markets is analyzed and corroborated through an exercise that was built around the Central Counterparty of Colombia (CRCC) in the Colombian market for non-delivery peso-dollar forward exchange transactions, using the methodology of network topology. The results provide empirical support for the different theoretical models developed to study the effect of CCPs on financial markets. Finally, the results of research using artificial intelligence with information from the large-value payment system are presented. Based on the payments made among financial institutions in the large-value payment system, a methodology is used to compare different payment networks, as well as to determine which ones can be considered abnormal. The methodology shows signs that indicate when a network moves away from its historical trend, so it can be studied and monitored. A methodology similar to the one applied to classify images is used to make this comparison, the idea being to extract the main characteristics of the networks and use them as a parameter for comparison. Juan José Echavarría Governo

Financial Infrastructure Report 2022

Banco de la República's monitoring of the local financial market infrastructure is an additional contribution to the country's financial stability. One of the products of that monitoring has been the Payment Systems Report, which is now known as the Financial Infrastructure Report. The change in name, as of this edition, is intended to reflect in a broader way the issues that are addressed in the report. The 2022 edition includes several changes that are the result of a comparative study of financial infrastructure reports prepared by other central banks. These changes seek to make the report more fluid and easier to read, including main points and selected key figures for the different interest groups to which it is addressed. The report shows the financial infrastructure continued to render its services without interruption, with general evidence of good performance in 2021. Additionally, the resilience of the Central Counterparty Risk of Colombia (CRCC) and the Large-value Payments System (CUD) to extreme events was validated, based on stress tests conducted according to international standards (focused on liquidity and credit risk). As for retail payments, transactional information indicates the use of electronic instruments increased in terms of value during 2021 compared to 2020 (credit and debit cards, checks and electronic funds transfers). The use of debit and credit cards in payments rose to levels similar to those reached in the pre-pandemic year. Meanwhile, electronic funds transfers continued to grow. Although the results of the BR 2022 survey show cash continues to be the instrument most used by the public for regular payments (like the situation in other countries), the perception of its use decreased significantly to 75 % (87 % in 2019). Also, in commerce, cash was the preferred instrument for customers. However, in this measurement, several retail channels such as hairdressers, drugstores and restaurants joined the group that has traditionally received electronic payments for a value greater than 10% of their sales (hypermarkets and gas stations). Likewise, for nearly 50% of the population, cash payments are lower than before the pandemic. This is consistent with the transactional increase in electronic payment instruments that was observed in 2021. Banco de la República continues to monitor the technological developments that have expanded and modernized the supply in the international and local payments market, as these are issues of interest to the industry that provides clearing and settlement services. This report outlines the Pix case for instant payments in Brazil, the projects that are underway regarding the possible issue of digital currency by central banks (CBDC) for cross-border payments, as well as an approach to the Fintech ecosystem in Colombia, with an emphasis on companies that provide payment services. Leonardo Villar Governor Main points: 2022 The local financial infrastructure was safe and efficient throughout the year. The services of the financial infrastructure were proved on a continuous basis, showing good performance overall. Less momentum in the large-value payment system CUD activity declined versus the previous year because of fewer government deposits with BanRep. This was offset partially by growth in repos to increase money supply and in retail-value payments (electronic funds transfers, checks and cards). Increased momentum in financial market infrastructures. Larger amounts were cleared and settled through the Central Securities Depository (DCV) due to an increase in the market for sovereign debt. Operations managed by the Central Counterparty Risk of Colombia (CRCC) increased due to inclusion of the foreign exchange segment and the positive evolution in non-delivery forward peso/dollar contracts. Added confidence in the peso/dollar spot foreign exchange market due to CRCC interposition. Number and value of trades grew, mainly due to the adjustment of therisk management model for the FX segment and the increase in the limiton net selling positions in dollars. Stress testing with international standards to validate CRCC and CUD resilience Stress tests conducted independently by the SFC, BanRep and the CRCC, like those done in England and the United States, concluded that the CRCC's risk management model allows it to withstand extreme market events and simultaneous defaults by its main members. Based on the experience of other central banks, BanRep strengthened its intraday liquidity risk stress exercises in the CUD by incorporating temporary payment delays. It calculated that a two-hour delay by a key participant increases the system's liquidity needs by 0.5%. Electronic payments increased during 2021 According to transactional information, all electronic payment instruments increased in value versus 2020 (electronic funds transfers, checks and debit and credit cards). Electronic funds transfers continued to grow (80% from legal entities), with the participation of closed schemes driven particularly by the use of mobile wallets (35% of the number of intra-transfer transactions). The use of debit and credit cards for payments climbed to levels similar to those witnessed in the pre-pandemic year. Cash continues to be the instrument most used by the public for regular payments. The results of the BanRep survey in 2022 show that the perception of the use of cash declined significantly to 75% (87% in 2019), and about 50% of the population perceive their cash payments as being lower than those they made before the pandemic. Electronic funds transfers were second most used instrument, having increased to 15% (3% in 2019). Also, in commerce, cash was the preferred instrument of payment for its customers; however, several commerce channels received more than 10% of the value of their sales in electronic payments (hypermarkets 35%, gas stations 25%, hairdressers 15%, drugstores 14% and restaurants 12%). Continuous technological developments have broadened, and modernized services offered in the payments market. Pix (instant payments in Brazil). The high level of adoption of instant transfers in Brazil motivated a review of its strengths; namely, the possibility of different use cases between individuals, businesses, and government; high participation by financial and payment institutions; free of charge for individuals and the possibility of charging legal entities, and simple user experience. Digital currencies in central banking. Several groups of countries have joined forces to conduct pilot projects with wholesale CBDCs for cross-border payments. Flows generated by international trade, foreign investment and remittances between individuals can be processed more efficiently, transparently, and securely by reducing their cost and increasing their speed. Due to the constant progress being made on this issue, BanRep will continue to monitor all CBDC-related matters. The fintech ecosystem for payments in Colombia. A high percentage of existing FinTech companies in the country are dedicated to offering digital payment services: wallets, payment gateways, mobile devices (point-of-sale terminals) and acquisition. These have driven innovation in payment services

Financial Stability Report - September 2015

From this edition, the Financial Stability Report will have fewer pages with some changes in its structure. The purpose of this change is to present the most relevant facts of the financial system and their implications on the financial stability. This allows displaying the analysis more concisely and clearly, as it will focus on describing the evolution of the variables that have the greatest impact on the performance of the financial system, for estimating then the effect of a possible materialization of these risks on the financial health of the institutions. The changing dynamics of the risks faced by the financial system implies that the content of the Report adopts this new structure; therefore, some analyses and series that were regularly included will not necessarily be in each issue. However, the statistical annex that accompanies the publication of the Report will continue to present the series that were traditionally included, regardless of whether or not they are part of the content of the Report. In this way we expect to contribute in a more comprehensive way to the study and analysis of the stability of the Colombian financial system. Executive Summary During the first half of 2015, the main advanced economies showed a slow recovery on their growth, while emerging economies continued with their slowdown trend. Domestic demand in the United States allowed for stabilization on its average growth for the first half of the year, while other developed economies such as the United Kingdom, the euro zone, and Japan showed a more gradual recovery. On the other hand, the Chinese economy exhibited the lowest growth rate in five years, which has resulted in lower global dynamism. This has led to a fall in prices of the main export goods of some Latin American economies, especially oil, whose price has also responded to a larger global supply. The decrease in the terms of trade of the Latin American economies has had an impact on national income, domestic demand, and growth. This scenario has been reflected in increases in sovereign risk spreads, devaluations of stock indices, and depreciation of the exchange rates of most countries in the region. For Colombia, the fall in oil prices has also led to a decline in the terms of trade, resulting in pressure on the dynamics of national income. Additionally, the lower demand for exports helped to widen the current account deficit. This affected the prospects and economic growth of the country during the first half of 2015. This economic context could have an impact on the payment capacity of debtors and on the valuation of investments, affecting the soundness of the financial system. However, the results of the analysis featured in this edition of the Report show that, facing an adverse scenario, the vulnerability of the financial system in terms of solvency and liquidity is low. The analysis of the current situation of credit institutions (CI) shows that growth of the gross loan portfolio remained relatively stable, as well as the loan portfolio quality indicators, except for microcredit, which showed a decrease in these indicators. Regarding liabilities, traditional sources of funding have lost market share versus non-traditional ones (bonds, money market operations and in the interbank market), but still represent more than 70%. Moreover, the solvency indicator remained relatively stable. As for non-banking financial institutions (NBFI), the slowdown observed during the first six months of 2015 in the real annual growth of the assets total, both in the proprietary and third party position, stands out. The analysis of the main debtors of the financial system shows that indebtedness of the private corporate sector has increased in the last year, mostly driven by an increase in the debt balance with domestic and foreign financial institutions. However, the increase in this latter source of funding has been influenced by the depreciation of the Colombian peso vis-à-vis the US dollar since mid-2014. The financial indicators reflected a favorable behavior with respect to the historical average, except for the profitability indicators; although they were below the average, they have shown improvement in the last year. By economic sector, it is noted that the firms focused on farming, mining and transportation activities recorded the highest levels of risk perception by credit institutions, and the largest increases in default levels with respect to those observed in December 2014. Meanwhile, households have shown an increase in the financial burden, mainly due to growth in the consumer loan portfolio, in which the modalities of credit card, payroll deductible loan, revolving and vehicle loan are those that have reported greater increases in risk indicators. On the side of investments that could be affected by the devaluation in the portfolio of credit institutions and non-banking financial institutions (NBFI), the largest share of public debt securities, variable-yield securities and domestic private debt securities is highlighted. The value of these portfolios fell between February and August 2015, driven by the devaluation in the market of these investments throughout the year. Furthermore, the analysis of the liquidity risk indicator (LRI) shows that all intermediaries showed adequate levels and exhibit a stable behavior. Likewise, the fragility analysis of the financial system associated with the increase in the use of non-traditional funding sources does not evidence a greater exposure to liquidity risk. Stress tests assess the impact of the possible joint materialization of credit and market risks, and reveal that neither the aggregate solvency indicator, nor the liquidity risk indicator (LRI) of the system would be below the established legal limits. The entities that result more individually affected have a low share in the total assets of the credit institutions; therefore, a risk to the financial system as a whole is not observed. José Darío Uribe Governo

Financial Stability Report - Second Semester of 2021

Banco de la República’s main objective is to preserve the purchasing power of the currency in coordination with the general economic policy that is intended to stabilize output and employment at long-term sustainable levels. Properly meeting the goal assigned to the Bank by the 1991 Constitution critically depends on preserving financial stability. This is understood to be a general condition in which the financial system assesses and manages the financial risks in a way that facilitates the economy’s performance and efficient allocation of resources while, at the same time, it is able to, on its own, absorb, dissipate, and mitigate the shocks that may arise as a result of adverse events. This Financial Stability Report meets the goal of giving Banco de la República’s diagnosis of the financial system’s and its debtors’ recent performance as well as of the main risks and vulnerabilities that could affect the stability of the Colombian economy. In this way, participants in financial markets and the public are being informed, and public debate on trends and risks affecting the system is being encouraged. The results presented here also serve the monetary authority as a basis for making decisions that will enhance financial stability in the general context of its objectives. In recent months, several positive aspects of the financial system have preserved a remarkable degree of continuity and stability: the liquidity and capital adequacy of financial institutions have remained well above the regulatory minimums at both the individual and consolidated levels, the coverage of past-due loans by loan-loss provisions remains high, and the financial markets for public and private debt and stocks have continued to function normally. At the same time, a surge in all the types of loan portfolios, a sharp downturn in the non-performing loan portfolio, and a rise in the profitability of credit institutions can be seen for the first time since the beginning of the pandemic. In line with the general recovery of the economy, the main vulnerability to the stability of the Colombian financial system identified in the previous edition—uncertainty about changes in the non-performing loans portfolio—has receded and remains on a downward trend. In this edition, the main source of vulnerability identified for financial stability in the short term is the system’s exposure to sudden changes in international financial conditions; the results presented in this Report indicate that the system is sufficiently resilient to such scenarios. In compliance with its constitutional objectives and in coordination with the financial system’s security network, Banco de la República will continue to closely monitor the outlook for financial stability at this juncture and will make the decisions necessary to ensure the proper functioning of the economy, facilitate the flow of sufficient credit and liquidity resources, and further the smooth functioning of the payment system. Leonardo Villar Gomez Governor Box 1 -Decomposition of the Net Interest Margin in Colombia and Chile Wilmar Cabrera Daniela Rodríguez-Novoa Box 2 - Spatial Analysis of New Home Prices in Bogota, Medellín, and Cali Using a Geostatistical Approach María Fernanda Meneses Camilo Eduardo Sánchez Box 3 - Interest Rate Model for the SYSMO Stress Test Exercise Wilmar Cabrera Diego Cuesta Santiago Gamba Camilo Gómez Box 4 - The Transition from LIBOR and other International Benchmark Rates Daniela X. Gualtero Briceño Javier E. Pirateque Niñ

Reporte Estabilidad Financiera - Primer Semestre de 2020

In the face of the multiple shocks currently experienced by the domestic economy (resulting from the drop in oil prices and the appearance of a global pandemic), the Colombian financial system is in a position of sound solvency and adequate liquidity. At the same time, credit quality has been recovering and the exposure of credit institutions to firms with currency mismatches has declined relative to previous episodes of sudden drops in oil prices. These trends are reflected in the recent fading of red and blue tonalities in the performance and credit risk segments of the risk heatmaps in Graphs A and B.1 Naturally, the sudden, unanticipated change in macroeconomic conditions has caused the appearance of vulnerabilities for short-term financial stability. These vulnerabilities require close and continuous monitoring on the part of economic authorities. The main vulnerability is the response of credit and credit risk to a potential, temporarily extreme macroeconomic situation in the context of: (i) recently increased exposure of some banks to household sector, and (ii) reductions in net interest income that have led to a decline in the profitability of the banking business in the recent past. Furthermore, as a consequence of greater uncertainty and risk aversion, occasional problems may arise in the distribution of liquidity between agents and financial markets. With regards to local markets, spikes have been registered in the volatility of public and private fixed income securities in recent weeks that are consistent with the behavior of the international markets and have had a significant impact on the liquidity of those instruments (red portions in the most recent past of some market risk items on the map in Graph A). In order to adopt a forward-looking approach to those vulnerabilities, this Report presents a stress test that evaluates the resilience of credit institutions in the event of a hypothetical scenario thatseeks to simulate an extreme version of current macroeconomic conditions. The scenario assumes a hypothetical negative growth that is temporarily strong but recovers going into the middle of the coming year and has extreme effects on credit quality. The results suggest that credit institutions have the ability to withstand a significant deterioration in economic conditions in the short term. Even though there could be a strong impact on credit, liquidity, and profitability under the scenario being considered, aggregate capital ratios would probably remain at above their regulatory limits over the horizon of a year. In this context, the recent measures taken by both Banco de la República and the Office of the Financial Superintendent of Colombia that are intended to help preserve the financial stability of the Colombian economy become highly relevant. In compliance with its constitutional objectives and in coordination with the financial system’s security network, Banco de la República will continue to closely monitor the outlook for financial stability at this juncture and will make the decisions that are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of the economy, facilitate the flow of sufficient credit and liquidity resources, and further the smooth functioning of the payment system. Juan José Echavarría Governo

Financial Stability Report - Second Semester of 2020

The Colombian financial system has not suffered major structural disruptions during these months of deep economic contraction and has continued to carry out its basic functions as usual, thus facilitating the economy's response to extreme conditions. This is the result of the soundness of financial institutions at the beginning of the crisis, which was reflected in high liquidity and capital adequacy indicators as well as in the timely response of various authorities. Banco de la República lowered its policy interest rates 250 points to 1.75%, the lowest level since the creation of the new independent bank in 1991, and provided ample temporary and permanent liquidity in both pesos and foreign currency. The Office of the Financial Superintendent of Colombia, in turn, adopted prudential measures to facilitate changes in the conditions for loans in effect and temporary rules for rating and loan-loss provisions. Finally, the national government expanded the transfers as well as the guaranteed credit programs for the economy. The supply of real credit (i.e. discounting inflation) in the economy is 4% higher today than it was 12 months ago with especially marked growth in the housing (5.6%) and commercial (4.7%) loan portfolios (2.3% in consumer and -0.1% in microloans), but there have been significant changes over time. During the first few months of the quarantine, firms increased their demands for liquidity sharply while consumers reduced theirs. Since then, the growth of credit to firms has tended to slow down, while consumer and housing credit has grown. The financial system has responded satisfactorily to the changes in the respective demands of each group or sector and loans may grow at high rates in 2021 if GDP grows at rates close to 4.6% as the technical staff at the Bank expects; but the forecasts are highly uncertain. After the strict quarantine implemented by authorities in Colombia, the turmoil seen in March and early April, which was evident in the sudden reddening of macroeconomic variables on the risk heatmap in Graph A,[1] and the drop in crude oil and coal prices (note the high volatility registered in market risk for the region on Graph A) the local financial markets stabilized relatively quickly. Banco de la República’s credible and sustained policy response played a decisive role in this stabilization in terms of liquidity provision through a sharp expansion of repo operations (and changes in amounts, terms, counterparties, and eligible instruments), the purchases of public and private debt, and the reduction in bank reserve requirements. In this respect, there is now abundant aggregate liquidity and significant improvements in the liquidity position of investment funds. In this context, the main vulnerability factor for financial stability in the short term is still the high degree of uncertainty surrounding loan quality. First, the future trajectory of the number of people infected and deceased by the virus and the possible need for additional health measures is uncertain. For that reason, there is also uncertainty about the path for economic recovery in the short and medium term. Second, the degree to which the current shock will be reflected in loan quality once the risk materializes in banks’ financial statements is uncertain. For the time being, the credit risk heatmap (Graph B) indicates that non-performing and risky loans have not shown major deterioration, but past experience indicates that periods of sharp economic slowdown eventually tend to coincide with rises in non-performing loans: the calculations included in this report suggest that the impact of the recession on credit quality could be significant in the short term. This is particularly worrying since the profitability of credit establishments has been declining in recent months, and this could affect their ability to provide credit to the real sector of the economy. In order to adopt a forward-looking approach to this vulnerability, this Report presents several stress tests that evaluate the resilience of the liquidity and capital adequacy of credit institutions and investment funds in the event of a hypothetical scenario that seeks to simulate an extreme version of current macroeconomic conditions. The results suggest that even though there could be strong impacts on the credit institutions’ volume of credit and profitability under such scenarios, aggregate indicators of total and core capital adequacy will probably remain at levels that are above the regulatory limits over the horizon of a year. At the same time, the exercises highlight the high capacity of the system's liquidity to face adverse scenarios. In compliance with its constitutional objectives and in coordination with the financial system's security network, Banco de la República will continue to closely monitor the outlook for financial stability at this juncture and will make the decisions that are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of the economy, facilitate the flow of sufficient credit and liquidity resources, and further the smooth operation of the payment systems. Juan José Echavarría Governo