Toward a Switchover of Locomotives in the Global Economy

The recovery in advanced economies is now exhibiting several signs of fragility and the medium-term growth prospects for these economies also look difficult. Could developing economies “switch over” to become locomotives in the global economy, providing a countervailing force against downward trends? The view taken here says, yes, as long as appropriate domestic policies and reforms are pursued in developing countries.financial cirsis, developing countries, growth, recovery, global economy, GDP, domestic policies, reforms, "switch over", decoupling

Human Rights and Development Practice

In the past two decades, there has been a growing engagement between development and human rights practitioners and thinkers. But are participants in this dialogue still mainly talking past each other? Or has there been valuable cross-fertilization and learning—the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) themselves being a fruit of this convergence? This note addresses three points. The first point is the growing convergence between human rights and development thinking along several dimensions, particularly on social and economic rights. The second point is a consideration of the continuing areas of difference or divergence and of outstanding or open questions. Are these areas of conflict or are they valuable complementarities? The third point asks where are we with MDGs on the ground, and what can the dialogue between human rights and development contribute to furthering progress on MDGs?Human rights, MDGs, Millennium Development Goals, social rights, economic rights, development, developing countires, poverty reduction, World Bank

Subnational Debt Finance and the Global Financial Crisis

This note focuses on the impact of the global financial crisis on subnational debt financing. We approach the following questions: Why is subnational debt financing important? What are the impacts of the crisis on the fiscal balance and financing cost of subnational governments (SNGs)? What explains the variations across countries in the ability of SNGs to proactively address the threat of fiscal deterioration? And, equally important, what are the long-term structural challenges facing SNGs in sustainable financing of infrastructure and social services?subnational, debt, finance, financial crisis, subnational debt financing, subnational governments, fiscal, sustanable financing, infrastructure, social services

Dealing with Dutch Disease

This note looks at so-called Dutch disease, a phenomenon reflecting changes in the structure of production in the wake of a favorable shock (such as a large natural resource discovery, a rise in the international price of an exportable commodity, or the presence of sustained aid or capital inflows). Where the natural resources discovered are oil or minerals, a contraction or stagnation of manufacturing and agriculture could accompany the positive effects of the shock, according to the theory. The note considers channels through which such natural resource wealth can affect the economy. It also focuses on the development implications of Dutch disease, particularly the potential negative effects related to productivity dynamics and volatility; and concludes with a summary of possible policy responses, including the mix of fiscal, exchange rate, and structural reform policies.Dutch disease, shock, natural resources, comodities, capital, aid, oil, minerals, manufacturing, agriculture, wealth, volatility

Shadow Sovereign Ratings

Sovereign ratings are a necessary condition for countries to fully access international capital. Even if the sovereign government is not issuing bonds, the sovereign rating often acts as a ceiling for the private sector and can influence its international capital market access. However, 58 developing countries are still not rated by Standard and Poors, Moodys, and Fitch, the three international credit rating agencies. This premise presents an exercise to predict shadow sovereign ratings to estimate where unrated countries would lie on the credit spectrum if they were rated. Contrary to popular perception, unrated countries are not necessarily at the bottom of the rating spectrum.AAA, credit ratings, moody's, fitch, standard and poors, credit, credit ratings, World Bank, developing countries, soverign debt

Export-Led Growth v2.0

The U.S. recession could hurt the South, particularly in oil and apparel exports, and Latin America and the Caribbean. But South-South trade is partly picking up the slack. Middle-income countries are driving export diversification of low-income countries. Developing countries may be moving toward a new version of export-led growth.recession, South-South, oil, apparel, exports, Latin America, trade, export diversification, developing countries, low-income

Technological Learning and Innovation: Climbing a Tall Ladder

As the global stock of ideas expands and diffuses across and within countries, technological learning is poised to become an even more important determinant of growth through its impact on innovation. This note reviews global trends that make a policy focus on technological learning and innovation more important than ever for developing countries. The note explores how the recent global financial crisis may affect these trends and outlines several implications of these trends for innovation policy moving forward. Developing countries would benefit from an increased policy emphasis on technological learning and the adoption of more efficient existing technologies to generate more and better jobs and higher standards of living.technology, learning, skills, training, innovation, knowledge transfer, growth, developing countires, financial crisis, jobs

Processos de industrialização tardia : o "paradigma" da Coreia do Sul

Orientador: Wilson SuziganTese (doutorado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de EconomiaResumo: Não informadoAbstract: Not informedDoutoradoDoutor em Economi

O padrão de financiamento na industrialização coreana

Resumo Este artigo esboça algumas características básicas do padrão de finanças prevalecente durante o processo coreano de industrialização pesada nos anos setenta, bem como a reestruturação financeira pela qual a economia coreana conseguiu superar a crise da dívida externa nos anos oitenta. A ênfase é colocada na privatização coreana de bancos estatais e passivos externos correspondentes, em contraste com a absorção pelo Estado no caso brasileiro

A economia após a pandemia

O trabalho aborda algumas consequências duráveis da pandemia sobre as economias, ou seja, impactos da crise pandêmica com desdobramentos no futuro em economias nacionais em todo o mundo. Para além de perdas permanentes de produto e de um legado em termos de dívidas públicas mais elevadas, a pandemia deixará cicatrizes no mercado de trabalho, com efeitos sobre os estoques futuros de capital humano. A crise pandêmica também reforçou tendências prévias de remodelação da globalização, assim como acelerou a transformação digital. O trabalho destaca uma contradição em movimento entre, por um lado, o reforço da reorientação para dentro dos países e, por outro, a necessidade de coordenação política entre os países em muitas áreas. Lidar com futuras pandemias, mudanças climáticas, ciber-segurança, terrorismo, tendências migratórias e outras exigirá mais multilateralismo e não menos