Poorer breeding by little penguins near Perth, Western Australia is correlated with above average sea surface temperatures and a stronger Leeuwin Current

Using 20 years of data (1986 to 2008), we examined relationships between oceanographic variables (Fremantle sea level (FSL) a proxy for the strength of the Leeuwin Current and sea surface temperature (SST)) and five measures of little penguin, Eudyptula minor, breeding performance near Perth, Western Australia: namely (1) the laying date, (2) the number of chicks produced per pair, (3) the proportion of eggs that hatched, (4) the overall breeding success, defined as the proportion of total eggs laid that resulted in successful fledglings and (5) chick mass at fledging. The next three years of data (2009 to 2011) were used to test the performance of our statistical predictive models. FSL provided more accurate predictions of timing of laying, whereas SST provided more accurate predictions of breeding success. A later end to laying was associated with a high FSL during the summer (December to February) before breeding. Higher SSTs in the pre-breeding period from April to May corresponded to reduced breeding success, with lower fledgling success, fewer chicks per pair and generally a lower mean mass of chicks at fledging. The models predict that future oceanographic warming is expected to reduce the breeding success of this colony of little penguins

Climate as a driver of phenological change in southern seabirds

Seabirds are one of the most threatened groups of birds globally and, overall, their conservation status is deteriorating rapidly. Southern hemisphere countries are over-represented in the number of species of conservation concern yet long-term phenological data on seabirds in the southern hemisphere is limited. A better understanding of the implications of changes in the marine and terrestrial environments to seabird species is required in order to improve their management and conservation status. Here we conducted a meta-analysis of the phenological drivers and trends among southern hemisphere seabirds. Overall there was a general trend towards later phenological events over time (34 % of all data series, N = 47; 67 % of all significant trends), though this varied by taxa and location. The strongest trends towards later events were for seabirds breeding in Australia, the Laridae (gulls, noddies, terns) and migratory southern polar seabirds. In contrast, earlier phenologies were more often observed for the Spheniscidae (penguins) and for other seabirds breeding in the Antarctic and subantarctic. Phenological changes were most often associated with changes in oceanographic conditions, with sea-ice playing an important role for more southerly species. For some species in some locations, such as the Little Penguin Eudyptula minor in south-eastern Australia, warmer oceans projected under various climate change scenarios are expected to correspond to increased seabird productivity, manifested through earlier breeding, heavier chicks, an increased chance of double brooding, at least in the short-term