Analysis Of Neighborhood Dynamics Of Forest Ecosystems Using Likelihood Methods And Modeling

Advances in computing power in the past 20 years have led to a proliferation of spatially explicit, individual-based models of population and ecosystem dynamics. In forest ecosystems, the individual-based models encapsulate an emerging theory of “neighborhood” dynamics, in which fine-scale spatial interactions regulate the demography of component tree species. The spatial distribution of component species, in turn, regulates spatial variation in a whole host of community and ecosystem properties, with subsequent feedbacks on component species. The development of these models has been facilitated by development of new methods of analysis of field data, in which critical demographic rates and ecosystem processes are analyzed in terms of the spatial distributions of neighboring trees and physical environmental factors. The analyses are based on likelihood methods and information theory, and they allow a tight linkage between the models and explicit parameterization of the models from field data. Maximum likelihood methods have a long history of use for point and interval estimation in statistics. In contrast, likelihood principles have only more gradually emerged in ecology as the foundation for an alternative to traditional hypothesis testing. The alternative framework stresses the process of identifying and selecting among competing models, or in the simplest case, among competing point estimates of a parameter of a model. There are four general steps involved in a likelihood analysis: (1) model specification, (2) parameter estimation using maximum likelihood methods, (3) model comparison, and (4) model evaluation. Our goal in this paper is to review recent developments in the use of likelihood methods and modeling for the analysis of neighborhood processes in forest ecosystems. We will focus on a single class of processes, seed dispersal and seedling dispersion, because recent papers provide compelling evidence of the potential power of the approach, and illustrate some of the statistical challenges in applying the methods

Aperture Valve for the Mars Organic Molecule Analyzer (MOMA)

NASA's participation in the multi-nation ExoMars 2018 Rover mission includes a critical astrobiology Mass Spectrometer Instrument on the Rover called the Mars Organic Molecule Analyzer (MOMA). The Aperture Valve is a critical electromechanical valve used by the Mass Spectrometer to facilitate the transfer of ions from Martian soil to the Mass Spectrometer for analysis. The MOMA Aperture Valve development program will be discussed in terms of the Initial valve design and subsequent improvements that resulted from prototype testing. The Initial Aperture Valve concept seemed promising, based on calculations and perceived merits. However, performance results of this design were disappointing, due to delamination of TiN and DLC coatings applied to the Titanium base metals, causing debris from the coatings to seize the valve. While peer reviews and design trade studies are important forums to vet a concept design, results from testing should not be underestimated. Despite the lack of development progress to meet requirements, valuable information from weakness discovered in the Initial Valve design was used to develop a second, more robust Aperture valve. Based on a check-ball design, the ETU /flight valve design resulted in significantly less surface area to create the seal. Moreover, PVD coatings were eliminated in favor of hardened, nonmagnetic corrosion resistant alloys. Test results were impressive, with the valve achieving five orders of magnitude better sealing leak rate over end of life requirements. Cycle life was equally impressive, achieving 280,000 cycles without failure

A Model of Simultaneous Evolution of Competitive Ability and Herbivore Resistance in a Perennial Plant

Plant populations often experience the joint effects of intraspecific competition and herbivory, yet the impact of the interaction of these two factors on the outcome of evolution is largely unknown. Here, we develop a spatially explicit simulation model to examine interactions between the evolution of herbivore resistance and competitive ability in the goldenrod Solidago altissima. We define competitive ability as either competitive effect, the ability of a plant to deplete resources and make them unavailable to competitors, or competitive response, the ability to grow, survive, and reproduce despite depletion of resources by neighboring competitors. We considered symmetric and asymmetric modes of competition and explored the following questions: (1) Does the selective effect of competition differ for the two components of competitive ability? (2) What are the effects of the evolution of competitive ability and resistance on each other? (3) Can trade-offs between competitive ability and resistance emerge, given no relationship between these two traits prior to selection? Our results showed that competitive response evolved quickly regardless of the mode of competition, but self-suppression hindered the evolution of competitive effect. The evolution of resistance appeared to be independent of the evolution of competitive ability. Intraspecific competition was the major selective force in our model. At natural levels of herbivory, selection for resistance played a secondary role in structuring the population. Resistant genotypes were only favored at very low resistance costs. At high cost levels, the costs of maintaining resistance far outweighed the benefits. The selective forces of competition and herbivory resulted in trade-offs between competitive response and herbivore resistance, but only at low costs of resistance. Vigorous growth associated with a high competitive response might translate into trade-offs between herbivore tolerance and resistance. The strong selective effects of competitors, coupled with the weaker selection from herbivores, suggest that plant traits directly associated with growth that confer tolerance to both competitors and consumers may be the targets of selection

A Neighborhood Analysis of Tree Growth and Survival in a Hurricane-Driven Tropical Forest

We present a likelihood-based regression method that was developed to analyze the effects of neighborhood competitive interactions and hurricane damage on tree growth and survival. The purpose of the method is to provide robust parameter estimates for a spatially explicit forest simulator and to gain insight into the processes that drive the patterns of species abundance in tropical forests. We test the method using census data from the 16-ha Luquillo Forest Dynamics Plot in Puerto Rico and describe effects of the spatial configuration, sizes, and species of neighboring trees on the growth and survival of 12 dominant tree species representing a variety of life history strategies. Variation in size-dependent growth and mortality suggests a complex relationship between size, growth, and survival under different regimes of light availability. Crowding effects on growth and survival appear to be idiosyncratic to each individual species, and with the exception of pioneers, there is little commonality among species that share similar life histories. We also explain the implications of differential susceptibility to hurricane damage on species' growth and survival and on their ability to respond to damage to neighboring trees. Tree species in the Luquillo Forest Dynamics Plot differ strikingly in both their susceptibility to hurricane disturbance and the nature of their recovery from wind disturbance, through response of both adult plants and juveniles to enhanced resource availability. At the stand level, intense competitive thinning of densely packed saplings that grew after hurricane damage accounted for the majority of post-hurricane mortality, particularly for shade-intolerant species. At the individual species level, effects of previous hurricane damage on growth and survival depended primarily on variation in the quantity and quality of hurricane damage sustained by target species and their interaction with life history characteristics of these individual species. Finally, we compare models that make different assumptions about the effects of competing species on tree growth and survival (e.g., equivalence of competitors vs. distinct species-specific effects). Size effects alone could not account for growth and survival for the majority of target species. Our results also demonstrate that competing species have distinct per capita effects on growth of dominant target species. In contrast, we found moderate support for a model that assumed functional equivalence of competitors on survival

Forest Response to Chronic Hurricane Disturbance in Coastal New England

Question: Hurricanes and cyclones cause a wide range of damage to coastal forests worldwide. Most of these storms are not catastrophic in ecological terms, but forest responses to storms of moderate intensities are poorly understood. In regions with a high frequency of moderate hurricanes, how does variation in disturbance intensity affect the magnitude of ecological responses? Location: Naushon Island, Massachusetts USA Methods: We use historical records and dendroecological methods to characterize establishment and growth of Fagus grandifolia, Quercus alba and Quercus velutina in response to seven non-catastrophic hurricanes of varying intensity and a major logging event, relative to baseline conditions, over the past ~ 150 years. Our aim was to document variation in the magnitude of responses to known disturbance events of varying intensity, and to determine whether tree growth after moderate hurricanes differs from growth during periods of no disturbance. Results: Forest harvesting in 1824-1827 had a strong impact on forest composition and growth. Since then, the study region has been characterized by little harvesting but frequent hurricanes. However, only one of the seven storms examined caused substantial increases in growth and new establishment for the dominant species; most moderate disturbances had minimal impacts on growth and regeneration dynamics. We also document highly variable responses among species to individual storms, including substantial growth decreases that may not be detected by standard analytical approaches. Conclusions: Our results caution against the use of simple metrics such as wind speed to predict forest response to specific hurricanes, and highlight the importance of individual disturbance events in controlling long-term forest dynamics, even in regions characterized by high disturbance frequency. Additionally, we show that standard approaches to reconstructing disturbance history based on increases in radial growth and pulses of tree establishment are likely to underestimate the frequency of moderate disturbances.Other Research Uni

Landscape dynamics of northeastern forests

This project involves collaborative research with Stephen W. Pacala and Simon A. Levin of Princeton University to calibrate, test, and analyze models of heterogeneous forested landscapes containing a diverse array of habitats. The project is an extension of previous, NASA-supported research to develop a spatially-explicit model of forest dynamics at the scale of an individual forest stand (hectares to square kilometer spatial scales). That model (SORTIE) has been thoroughly parameterized from field studies in the modal upland environment of western Connecticut. Under our current funding, we are scaling-up the model and parameterizing it for the broad range of upland environments in the region. Our most basic goal is to understand the linkages between stand-level dynamics (as revealed in our previous research) and landscape-level dynamics of forest composition and structure

Neighborhood Analyses Of Canopy Tree Competition Along Environmental Gradients In New England Forests

We use permanent-plot data from the USDA Forest Service's Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program for an analysis of the effects of competition on tree growth along environmental gradients for the 14 most abundant tree species in forests of northern New England, USA. Our analysis estimates actual growth for each individual tree of a given species as a function of average potential diameter growth modified by three sets of scalars that quantify the effects on growth of (1) initial target tree size (dbh), (2) local environmental conditions, and (3) crowding by neighboring trees. Potential growth of seven of the 14 species varied along at least one of the two environmental axes identified by an ordination of relative abundance of species in plots. The relative abundances of a number of species were significantly displaced from sites where they showed maximum potential growth. In all of these cases, abundance was displaced to the more resource-poor end of the environmental gradient (either low fertility or low moisture). The pattern was most pronounced among early successional species, whereas late-successional species reached their greatest abundance on sites where they also showed the highest growth in the absence of competition. The analysis also provides empirical estimates of the strength of intraspecific and interspecific competitive effects of neighbors. For all but one of the species, our results led us to reject the hypothesis that all species of competitors have equivalent effects on a target species. Most of the individual pairwise interactions were strongly asymmetric. There was a clear competitive hierarchy among the four most shade-tolerant species, and a separate competitive hierarchy among the shade-intolerant species. Our results suggest that timber yield following selective logging will vary dramatically depending on the configuration of the residual canopy, because of interspecific variation in the magnitude of both the competitive effects of different species of neighbors and the competitive responses of different species of target trees to neighbors. The matrix of competition coefficients suggests that there may be clear benefits in managing for specific mixtures of species within local neighborhoods within stands

The influence of insurance status on access to and utilization of a tertiary hand surgery referral center

BACKGROUND: The purpose of this study was to systematically examine the impact of insurance status on access to and utilization of elective specialty hand surgical care. We hypothesized that patients with Medicaid insurance or those without insurance would have greater difficulty accessing care both in obtaining local surgical care and in reaching a tertiary center for appointments. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study included all new patients with orthopaedic hand problems (n = 3988) at a tertiary center in a twelve-month period. Patient insurance status was categorized and clinical complexity was quantified on an ordinal scale. The relationships of insurance status, clinical complexity, and distance traveled to appointments were quantified by means of statistical analysis. An assessment of barriers to accessing care stratified with regard to insurance status was completed through a survey of primary care physicians and an analysis of both patient arrival rates and operative rates at our tertiary center. RESULTS: Increasing clinical complexity significantly correlated (p < 0.001) with increasing driving distance to the appointment. Patients with Medicaid insurance were significantly less likely (p < 0.001) to present with problems of simple clinical complexity than patients with Medicare and those with private insurance. Primary care physicians reported that 62% of local surgeons accepted patients with Medicaid insurance and 100% of local surgeons accepted patients with private insurance. Forty-four percent of these primary care physicians reported that, if patients who were underinsured (i.e., patients with Medicaid insurance or no insurance) had been refused by community surgeons, they were unable to drive to our tertiary center because of limited personal resources. Patients with Medicaid insurance (26%) were significantly more likely (p < 0.001) to fail to arrive for appointments than patients with private insurance (11%), with no-show rates increasing with the greater distance required to reach the tertiary center. CONCLUSIONS: Economically disadvantaged patients face barriers to accessing specialty surgical care. Among patients with Medicaid coverage or no insurance, local surgical care is less likely to be offered and yet personal resources may limit a patient’s ability to reach distant centers for non-emergency care. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Prognostic Level II. See Instructions for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence

Natural disturbance and human land use as determinants of tropical forest dynamics: results from a forest simulator

Forests are often subject to multiple, compounded disturbances, representing both natural and human-induced processes. Predicting forest dynamics requires that we consider how these disturbances interact to affect species demography. Here we present results of an individual-based, spatially explicit forest simulator that we developed to analyze the compounded effects of hurricane disturbance and land use legacies on the dynamics of a subtropical forest. We used data from the 16-ha Luquillo Forest Dynamics Plot in Puerto Rico, together with a reconstruction of historical wind damage, to parameterize the simulator. We used the model to ask two questions. (1) What are the implications of variation in hurricane frequency and severity for the long-term dynamics of forest composition, diversity, and structure? Both storm severity and frequency had striking effects on forest dynamics, composition, and structure. The periodicity of disturbance also played an important role, with periods of high hurricane activity fostering the establishment of species that may become rare in the absence of severe storms and quiescent periods allowing these species to reach reproductive size. Species responses to hurricane disturbance could not be predicted from their life history attributes. However, species perceived to be primary forest species exhibited low temporal variation in abundance through the simulations. (2) How do hurricanes and legacies from human land use interact to determine community structure and composition? Our results suggest that, over time, regardless of the storm regime, land use legacies will become less apparent but will lead to a forest community that contains a mixture of secondary and primary forest species formerly dominant in areas of different land use. In the long term, hurricane disturbance generated two communities with slightly greater similarity than those not subject to storms. Thus, the inclusion of hurricane disturbance does not alter the prediction that land use legacies in this tropical forest will diminish over time. Our simulations also highlight the contingent effects of human legacies on subsequent community dynamics, including the response to hurricane disturbance, therefore supporting the notion that compounded disturbances can interact in ways that cannot be predicted by the study of single disturbances. The widespread importance of land use as a large-scale disturbance makes it imperative that it be addressed as a fundamental ecological process