Does providing everyone with free-of-charge organised exercise opportunities work in public health?

Background and purpose Population-level initiatives of free-of-charge organised exercise have been implemented to encourage residents to take up regular physical activity. However, there exists a paucity of evidence on the ability of these interventions to attract and engage residents, especially targeted subgroups. Seeking to contribute to this evidence base, we evaluated a proportionate universal programme providing free exercise sessions, Leeds Let's Get Active. Methods Descriptive statistics were used to summarise the programme data and participants. Time to event, count and logistic regression models examined how different population subgroups engaged with the programme in terms of number of entries, weekly participation rates and drop-off patterns. Results 51,874 adult residents registered to the programme and provided baseline data (2013–2016). A small proportion (1.6%) attended the free sessions on a weekly basis. Higher participation rates were estimated for the groups of males, retired and non-inactive participants. A neighbourhood-level deprivation status was found to have no marginal effect on the level and frequency of participation, but to be negatively associated with participation drop-off (HR 0.93, 95% CI 0.89–0.97, p = 0.001). Conclusions Providing everyone with free-of-charge organised exercise opportunities in public leisure centres located in deprived areas can attract large volumes of residents, but may not sufficiently encourage adults, especially inactive residents and those living in disadvantaged neighbourhoods, to take up regular exercise

Modelling decay in effectiveness for evaluation of behaviour change interventions: a tutorial for public health economists

Background and purpose Recent methodological reviews of evaluations of behaviour change interventions in public health have highlighted that the decay in efectiveness over time has been mostly overlooked, potentially leading to suboptimal decision-making. While, in principle, discrete-time Markov chains—the most commonly used modelling approach—can be adapted to account for decay in efectiveness, this framework inherently lends itself to strong model simplifcations. The application of formal and more appropriate modelling approaches has been supported, but limited progress has been made to date. The purpose of this paper is to encourage this shift by ofering a practical guide on how to model decay in efectiveness using a continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC)-based approach. Methods A CTMC approach is demonstrated, with a contextualized tutorial being presented to facilitate learning and uptake. A worked example based on the stylized case study in physical activity promotion is illustrated with accompanying R code. Discussion The proposed framework presents a relatively small incremental change from the current modelling practice. CTMC represents a technical solution which, in absence of relevant data, allows for formally testing the sensitivity of results to assumptions regarding the long-term sustainability of intervention efects and improving model transparency. Conclusions The use of CTMC should be considered in evaluations where decay in efectiveness is likely to be a key factor to consider. This would enable more robust model-based evaluations of population-level programmes to promote behaviour change and reduce the uncertainty surrounding the decision to invest in these public health interventions

Vaccine uptake and constrained decision making: The case of Covid-19

Policy makers require support in conceptualizing and assessing the impact that vaccination policies can have on the proportion of the population being vaccinated against COVID-19. To this purpose, we propose a behavioural economics-based framework to model vaccination choices. We calibrate our model using up-to-date surveys on people attitudes toward vaccination as well as estimates of COVID-19 infection and mortality rates and vaccine efficacy for the UK population. Our findings show that vaccine campaigns hardly reach herd immunity if the sceptics have real-time information on the proportion of the population being vaccinated and the negationists do not change their attitudes toward vaccination. Based on our results, we discuss the main implications of the model's application in the context of nudging and voluntariness versus mandatory rule-based policies

Taking a local government perspective for economic evaluation of a population-level programme to promote exercise

Background In order to tackle the issue of physical inactivity, local governments have implemented population-level programmes to promote exercise. While evidence is accumulating on the cost-effectiveness of these interventions, studies have typically adopted a health sector perspective for economic evaluation. This approach has been challenged as it does not allow for key concerns by local governments, which are primary stakeholders, to be addressed. Objectives To show how taking a local government perspective for economic evaluation can be implemented in practice and this may affect the economic conclusions. Methods Based on data from a case study, the health equity impact of the intervention and its opportunity cost from a service provider viewpoint were assessed. The cost-effectiveness implications of a change in perspective were subsequently estimated by means of scenario analysis. Findings The intervention was found to provide adult residents living in the most deprived city areas with greater health benefits compared with the rest of the population. However, a negative net equity impact was found in the short-term. The opportunity cost of the intervention was estimated to be substantially lower than its financial cost (£2.77 per person/year), with significant implications for decision-making. Conclusions Taking a local government perspective can affect the conclusions drawn from the economic evaluation of population-level programmes to promote exercise, and therefore influence decision making

Modelling the impact of physical activity on public health: A review and critique

Background While several reviews have assessed economic evaluations of physical activity in public health and, in most cases, found the interventions to be cost-effective, the validity of the conclusions reached depends on the appropriateness of the modelling methods used in the individual studies. Objective To provide an overview and critique of modelling approaches and key structural assumptions used in applied studies to estimate the impact of physical activity on population health. Methods Electronic databases were systematically searched for relevant model-based economic evaluations. A thematic approach was used to assess the modelling studies. The critique determined the appropriateness of the modelling frameworks and plausibility of key structural assumptions. Results Twenty-five models were identified. Cohort models were most frequently used. High variability in the modelling of downstream diseases was found across studies analysing similar populations. Structural assumptions regarding the dynamics of change of physical activity were unrealistic in most cases. Heterogeneity was addressed in only a few studies, while health equity concerns were, at best, acknowledged by authors. Conclusions This literature is predominantly characterised by modelling approaches that may not adequately address the complexities associated with representing the physical activity behaviour- population health process. A consensus on how to model the impact of physical activity on public health and development of a reference model could help reduce these sources of uncertainty

Economic burden of stroke across Europe: a population-based cost analysis

Introduction: In 2017, 1.5 million people were diagnosed with stroke, 9 million were living with stroke and 0.4 million died because of stroke in 32 European countries. We estimate the economic burden of stroke across these countries in 2017. Patients and methods: In a population-based cost analysis, we evaluated the cost of stroke. We estimated overall health and social care costs from expenditure on care in the primary, outpatient, emergency, inpatient and nursing/residential care settings, and pharmaceuticals. Additionally, we estimated the costs of unpaid care provided by relatives or friends of patients, lost earnings due to premature death and costs associated with individuals who temporarily or permanently left employment because of illness. Results: In 2017 stroke cost the 32 European countries under analysis €60 billion, with health care accounting for €27 billion (45%), representing 1.7% of health expenditure. Adding the costs of social care (€5 billion), annual stroke-related care costs were equivalent to €59 per citizen, varying from €11 in Bulgaria to €140 in Finland. Productivity losses cost €12 billion, equally split between early death and lost working days. A total of €1.3 billion hours of informal care were provided to stroke survivors, costing Europe €16 billion. Conclusion: Our study provides a snapshot of the economic consequences posed by stroke to 32 European countries in 2017. It also strengthens and updates the evidence we have gathered over the last 15 years, indicating that the costs of stroke are rising, partly due to an ageing population.</p

Cost-effectiveness of mechanical thrombectomy for treatment of non-minor ischaemic stroke across Europe

Background and Purpose: Mechanical thrombectomy (MT) has been recommended for the treatment of nonminor ischemic stroke by national and international guidelines, but cost-effectiveness evidence has been generated for only a few countries using heterogeneous evaluation methods. We estimate the cost-effectiveness of MT across 32 European countries. Methods: A Markov model was developed to estimate the cost-effectiveness of MT compared with standard care over a 5-year time horizon. Patients with ischemic stroke eligible for MT were identified from 2017 country-specific incidence data. A societal perspective was adopted, including health, social, and informal care costs, and productivity losses. Model outcomes were expressed as quality-adjusted life years. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to test the robustness of findings. Results: We identified 267 514 ischemic stroke cases that were eligible for MT treatment across 32 European countries. MT was found to be more effective and cheaper than standard care in two-thirds of the countries (21/32) and cost-effective in all but one country (Bulgaria). Across Europe, the intervention was estimated to produce over 101 327 additional quality-adjusted life years (95% uncertainty interval, 65 180–149 085) and cost savings of $981 million (€868 million, 95$1.7 billion (€1.5 billion, 95% uncertainty interval, −1.2 to 3.6) in health and social care and societal costs, respectively. Conclusions: MT is highly likely to be cost-effective compared with standard care across Europe as a whole and in the vast majority of European countries.</p

Cost-effectiveness of home-based stroke rehabilitation across Europe: A modelling study

The aim of this study was to explore the cost-effectiveness of home-based versus centre-based rehabilitation in stroke patients across Europe. A state-transition cohort model was developed to simulate the impact of the intervention in 32 European countries. A cost-utility analysis was conducted from a societal perspective including healthcare, social care and informal care costs, and productivity losses. Health outcomes were expressed as QALYs. Sensitivity analyses were conducted concerning model input values and structural assumptions. Data were obtained from a population-based cohort and previously published studies. Across Europe, over 855,000 patients with stroke would be eligible for rehabilitation in 2017. Europe-wide implementation of home-based rehabilitation was estimated to produce 61,888 additional QALYs (95% CI: 3,609 to 118,679) and cost savings of €237 million (95% CI: -237 to 1,764) and of €352 million (95% CI: -340 to 2,237) in health- and social-care and societal costs, respectively. Under base case assumptions, home-based rehabilitation was found highly likely to be cost-effective (>90%), compared to centre-based rehabilitation, in most European countries (29 out of 32). Evidence from this study suggests that a shift from a centre-based to a home-based approach to stroke rehabilitation is likely to be good value for money in most European countries. Further research should be conducted to assess the generalisability of these findings to local settings

Lessons from the pandemic on the value of research infrastructure

The COVID-19 pandemic has shed a spotlight on the resilience of healthcare systems, and their ability to cope efficiently and effectively with unexpected crises. If we are to learn one economic lesson from the pandemic, arguably it is the perils of an overfocus on short-term allocative efficiency at the price of lack of capacity to deal with uncertain future challenges. In normal times, building spare capacity with ‘option value’ into health systems may seem inefficient, the costs potentially exceeding the benefits. Yet the fatal weakness of not doing so is that this can leave health systems highly constrained when dealing with unexpected, but ultimately inevitable, shocks—such as the COVID-19 pandemic. In this article, we argue that the pandemic has highlighted the potentially enormous option value of biomedical research infrastructure. We illustrate this with reference to COVID-19 response work supported by the United Kingdom National Institute for Health Research Oxford Biomedical Research Centre. As the world deals with the fallout from the most serious economic crisis since the Great Depression, pressure will soon come to review government expenditure, including research funding. Developing a framework to fully account for option value, and understanding the public appetite to pay for it, should allow us to be better prepared for the next emerging problem