DEMANDA DE IMPORTAÇÃO DE VINHO NO BRASIL NO PERÍODO 1995-2007

O objetivo deste trabalho é estimar a função de demanda de importação de vinho no Brasil. Os dados utilizados são de janeiro de 1995 a novembro de 2007, com periodicidade mensal. O modelo econométrico dinâmico de ajustamento parcial, também conhecido como modelo de Nerlove, foi o escolhido para se proceder à estimação. Este se caracteriza como um tipo de modelo autoregressivo de curto prazo, bastante apto para explicar os movimentos no quantum importado no momento atual com base nas importações passadas e no valor de outras variáveis. Concluiu-se que renda interna, preço de importação e taxa de câmbio são estatisticamente significantes para a explicação de variações na importação de vinho pelo Brasil, assim como a própria defasagem da variável dependente. Ademais, verificou-se, a partir do modelo de Nerlove estimado, o formato da estimação para períodos de longo prazo. Com base na forma funcional log-log, verificou-se que as elasticidades de longo prazo são maiores que as de curto prazo.-------------------The objective of this study is to estimate the demand function for wine imports in Brazil. The data used are from January 1995 to November 2007, with monthly frequency. The econometric model of dynamic partial adjustment, also known as Nerlove model, was chosen to make the estimate. This is characterized as a kind of short-term autoregressive model, quite able to explain the movements in the quantum imported in the current time based on past imports and the value of other variables. It was concluded that domestic income, the import price and exchange rate are statistically significant to the explanation of variations in the importation of wine by Brazil as well as the lagged dependent variable. Moreover, it was found the format of the estimate for the long-term. Based on the log-log functional form, it was found that the long-term elasticities are higher than the ones in the short-term.comércio internacional, setor de vitivinicultura, Brasil, international trade, wine sector, Brazil, Agribusiness, International Development,

Transmissão de preços no mercado brasileiro de soja

Este estudo estima as elasticidades de transmissão entre pares de preços para a soja produzida no Mato Grosso e Paraná; Mato Grosso e Rio Grande do Sul; e Paraná e Rio Grande do Sul, com o intuito de testar a validade da Lei do Preço Único entre esses mercados. Os dados empregados correspondem às médias mensais dos preços nesses estados, obtidos junto ao Centro de Estudos Avançados em Economia Aplicada (CEPEA) da ESALQ / USP, para o período de janeiro de 2001 a fevereiro de 2008. Para tal, utilizam-se testes de raiz unitária e de co-integração de Johansen, estimação da função impulso-resposta, decomposição da variância dos erros de previsão e estimação e análise do modelo vetorial de correção de erro (VEC). Os resultados indicam que o primeiro par de preços, Mato Grosso e Paraná, não apresenta relação de co-integração, porém os outros dois pares apresentam-se co-integrados e que as variações de preços de longo prazo, ocorridas no Rio Grande do Sul, são transmitidas quase que totalmente para os preços da soja no Paraná e no Mato Grosso. Dessa forma, esses mercados poderiam ser considerados perfeitamente integrados se a hipótese de perfeita integração entre mercados não tivesse sido rejeitada quando restrições foram impostas no coeficiente de relacionamento de longo prazo. Portanto, a Lei do Preço Único não foi perfeitamente verificada nesses mercados de soja.--------------------------------------------This study estimates the price transmission elasticities between pairs of soybean prices for the states of Mato Grosso and Paraná; Mato Grosso and Rio Grande do Sul; and Paraná and Rio Grande do Sul in order to test the validity of the Law of One Price among those markets. The data correspond to the monthly average soybean prices for those states, extracted from the Center of Advanced Studies for Applied Economy (CEPEA) of ESALQ / USP, over the January, 2001 to February, 2008 period. The analytical framework includes tests for unitary root and Johansen´s co-integration, the estimation of impulse-response function, the decomposition of the variance of the forecasting error and the vector error correction model (VEC). The results indicate that the first pair of prices did not present any co-integration relationship, however the other two pairs were co-integrated and the variations of prices in the long run, occurred in Rio Grande do Sul, are almost fully transmitted to the soybean prices in Paraná and Mato Grosso. Thus, those markets could be considered perfectly integrated if the hypothesis test of perfect integration between those markets was rejected under the restrictions imposed on the relationship coefficient in the long run. Therefore, the Law of the One Price was not perfectly validate for those soybean markets.transmissão de preços, Lei do Preço Único, mercados de soja, transmission of prices, Law of One Price, soybean markets, Crop Production/Industries, Demand and Price Analysis,

Efeitos de acordos comerciais sobre a integração de preços do algodão nos mercados interno e externo

This article aims at to verify the effects of the trade agreements implanted in the textile sector (Multi-fibre Agreement, Agreement on Textiles and Clothing and liberalization of the textile sector in the world trade) about the integration among the internal and external prices of the cotton of january of 1990 to february of 2009. For that, they were employees the tests for unitary root and Johansen’s co-integration; estimation and analysis of and the vector error correction model (VEC) and the exogenicity test. The results revealed that the markets brazilian and american can be considered integrated in all of the analyzed samples, indicating that variations of price of the cotton happened at a market is reviewed to the other market in the long period, however that transmission is not accomplished in a complete way, because the hypothesis of perfect integration between these markets was rejected in all of the studied situations, invalidating, therefore, the Law of One Price.Cotton, Integration of markets, Law of One Price, Trade agreements, International Relations/Trade,

Taxa de Câmbio e a Balança Comercial Brasileira de Manufaturados: Evidências da J-Curve

Uma forma de investigação dos efeitos do curto e de longo prazo de uma depreciação cambial sobre o saldo da balança comercial é considerar dados agregados de comércio entre o país e o resto do mundo. Este estudo se propõe a analisar 21 setores da balança comercial de manufaturados brasileira no período de 1994/2007, a fim de evidenciar a existência do efeito de Curva J nestes setores. Para tal, utilizou-se a abordagem de co-integração multivariado de Johansen para estimar os efeitos da taxa de câmbio sobre a balança comercial. Os resultados apontam a existência de Curva J em apenas 2 dos 21 setores e, em 6 setores não se registram os efeitos de curto prazo, embora o saldo comercial responda positivamente no longo prazo a choques de depreciação cambial.Balança Comercial de Manufaturados, Curva J, Taxa de Câmbio

Stem Cell-Based Therapies in Chagasic Cardiomyopathy

Chagas disease is caused by Trypanosoma cruzi and can lead to a dilated cardiomyopathy decades after the prime infection by the parasite. As with other dilated cardiomyopathies, conventional pharmacologic therapies are not always effective and as heart failure progresses patients need heart transplantation. Therefore alternative therapies are highly desirable and cell-based therapies have been investigated in preclinical and clinical studies. In this paper we review the main findings of such studies and discuss future directions for stem cell-based therapies in chronic chagasic cardiomyopathy

Transmissão de preços no mercado internacional de café robusta

The robusta coffee market has experienced changes which are characterized by a growth in the demand and the confirmation of Vietnam as the world’s greater producer and exporter leaving behind traditional producers as Indonesia. These changes motivated the analysis of international price integration and the main markets of this commodity: Vietnam, Brazil, Indonesia and India. It was tested the hypothesis that Vietnam transmits prices shocks to the other markets. The framework used the analysis of co-integration and the Vector Error Correction (VEC) model. It was shown that, in the period from 1988 to 2005, the foreign price and the ones from Vietnam, Brazil and Indonesia were integrated and the India’s price was affected by factors that are not common to the other countries. There was no perfect integration and Vietnam, although important, wasn’t the more interdependent market.Robusta coffee, Price transmission, Market integration, VEC, Demand and Price Analysis,

Hole-in-One Mutant Phenotypes Link EGFR/ERK Signaling to Epithelial Tissue Repair in Drosophila

Background: Epithelia act as physical barriers protecting living organisms and their organs from the surrounding environment. Simple epithelial tissues have the capacity to efficiently repair wounds through a resealing mechanism. The known molecular mechanisms underlying this process appear to be conserved in both vertebrates and invertebrates, namely the involvement of the transcription factors Grainy head (Grh) and Fos. In Drosophila, Grh and Fos lead to the activation of wound response genes required for epithelial repair. ERK is upstream of this pathway and known to be one of the first kinases to be activated upon wounding. However, it is still unclear how ERK activation contributes to a proper wound response and which molecular mechanisms regulate its activation. Methodology/Principal Findings: In a previous screen, we isolated mutants with defects in wound healing. Here, we describe the role of one of these genes, hole-in-one (holn1), in the wound healing process. Holn1 is a GYF domain containing protein that we found to be required for the activation of several Grh and Fos regulated wound response genes at the wound site. We also provide evidence suggesting that Holn1 may be involved in the Ras/ERK signaling pathway, by acting downstream of ERK. Finally, we show that wound healing requires the function of EGFR and ERK signaling. Conclusions/Significance: Based on these data, we conclude that holn1 is a novel gene required for a proper wound healing response. We further propose and discuss a model whereby Holn1 acts downstream of EGFR and ERK signaling i

Impactos da influenza aviária no mercado internacional de carnes

Animal infectious disease outbreaks as Avian Influenza, Foot and mouth disease and Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy can influence trade and bring economic consequences to affected countries. For this reason, this work aims to analyze the effects on meat import demand in the years of 1997 and 2003 to 2005, the Avian Influenza outbreaks period. The analytical framework used was panel data econometrics. The results point to a reduction on chicken meat demand in 1997 and increase to the other meats, indicating a possible substitution. From 2003 on, chicken meat demand showed slight increase, as did pig meat, only bovine meat demand showed a reduction. This fact can be explained by a restriction on bovine and chicken supply caused by the imposition of sanitary barriers to the main exporting countries.Avian Influenza, Import demand, Beef, Chicken meat, Panel data, International Relations/Trade,

Possibilidade de arbitragem no mercado de câmbio brasileiro

The objective of this work is to determine the presence of volatility in the spot and futures exchange rates, detecting, thus, the presence of risk. Identified the volatility, it is looked for shaping it through the construction of models capable to forecast the behavior of the spot and futures exchange rates. The GARCH and TARCH models had been used to shape the volatility of the exchange rates. Gotten the estimates, it is verified existence of convergence of these rates in the date of the expirations of future contracts, identifying, thus, the chance to get profits with arbitrage. The results had shown more that the spot and futures exchange rates are very volatile and the spot exchange market presents asymmetry, being affected for negative impacts. The volatility analysis also indicates that the shocks in these rates last for a long period of time. Finally, it is detected possibility to get profits with arbitrage in the market of Brazilian exchange.Arbitrage, Spot exchange rate, Futures exchange rate, Volatility, International Relations/Trade,