A decentralized approach to model national and global food and land use systems

The achievement of several sustainable development goals and the Paris Climate Agreement depends on rapid progress towards sustainable food and land systems in all countries. We have built a flexible, collaborative modeling framework to foster the development of national pathways by local research teams and their integration up to global scale. Local researchers independently customize national models to explore mid-century pathways of the food and land use system transformation in collaboration with stakeholders. An online platform connects the national models, iteratively balances global exports and imports, and aggregates results to the global level. Our results show that actions toward greater sustainability in countries could sum up to 1 Mha net forest gain per year, 950 Mha net gain in the land where natural processes predominate, and an increased CO2 sink of 3.7 GtCO2e yr−1 over the period 2020–2050 compared to current trends, while average food consumption per capita remains above the adequate food requirements in all countries. We show examples of how the global linkage impacts national results and how different assumptions in national pathways impact global results. This modeling setup acknowledges the broad heterogeneity of socio-ecological contexts and the fact that people who live in these different contexts should be empowered to design the future they want. But it also demonstrates to local decision-makers the interconnectedness of our food and land use system and the urgent need for more collaboration to converge local and global priorities

How can diverse national food and land-use priorities be reconciled with global sustainability targets? Lessons from the FABLE initiative

There is an urgent need for countries to transition their national food and land-use systems toward food and nutritional security, climate stability, and environmental integrity. How can countries satisfy their demands while jointly delivering the required transformative change to achieve global sustainability targets? Here, we present a collaborative approach developed with the FABLE—Food, Agriculture, Biodiversity, Land, and Energy—Consortium to reconcile both global and national elements for developing national food and land-use system pathways. This approach includes three key features: (1) global targets, (2) country-driven multi-objective pathways, and (3) multiple iterations of pathway refinement informed by both national and international impacts. This approach strengthens policy coherence and highlights where greater national and international ambition is needed to achieve global goals (e.g., the SDGs). We discuss how this could be used to support future climate and biodiversity negotiations and what further developments would be needed

Structural inhomogeneity of interfacial water at lipid monolayers revealed by surface-specific vibrational pump-probe spectroscopy

We report vibrational lifetime measurements of the OH stretch vibration of interfacial water in contact with lipid monolayers, using time-resolved vibrational sum frequency (VSF) spectroscopy. The dynamics of water in contact with four different lipids are reported and are characterized by vibrational relaxation rates measured at 3200, 3300, 3400, and 3500 cm−1. We observe that the water molecules with an OH frequency ranging from 3300 to 3500 cm−1 all show vibrational relaxation with a time constant of T1 = 180 ± 35 fs, similar to what is found for bulk water. Water molecules with OH groups near 3200 cm−1 show distinctly faster relaxation dynamics, with T1 < 80 fs. We successfully model the data by describing the interfacial water containing two distinct subensembles in which spectral diffusion is, respectively, rapid (3300−3500 cm−1) and absent (3200 cm−1). We discuss the potential biological implications of the presence of the strongly hydrogen-bonded, rapidly relaxing water molecules at 3200 cm−1 that are decoupled from the bulk water system

Pathway to achieve a sustainable food and land-use transition in India

India has committed to reducing the emissions intensity of GDP by 33-35% from the 2005 level by 2030 in alignment with objectives of the Paris Agreement. This will require a significant reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the food and land-use sector. In this paper, we construct three potential pathways for India to achieve its emissions target by 2050 involving moderate ambitions of mitigation action (BAU), moderate ambitions combined with achieving healthy diets (BAU + NIN), and high levels of mitigation action inclusive of healthy diets (SUSTAINABLE). Using an integrated accounting tool, the FABLE Calculator, that harmonizes various socioeconomic and biophysical data, we project these pathways under the conditions of cross-country balanced trade flows. Results from the projections show that the demand for cereals will increase by 2050, leading to increased GHG emissions under BAU. Under the SUSTAINABLE pathways, GHG emissions will decrease over the same period due to reduced demand for cereals, whereas significant crop productivity and harvest intensity gains would lead to increased crop production. The exercise reveals the indispensability of healthy diets, improved crop, and livestock productivity, and net-zero deforestation in achieving India's mid-century emission targets from the agriculture sector

A 25,000-year tropical climate history from Bolivian ice cores

Ice cores that were recovered from the summit of Sajama mountain in Bolivia provide carbon-14-dated tropical records and extend to the Late Glacial State (LGS). Oxygen isotopic ratios of the ice decreased 5.4 per mil between the early Holocene and the Last Glacial Maximum, which is consistent with values from other ice cores. The abrupt onset and termination of a Younger Dryas-type event suggest atmospheric processes' as the probable drivers. Regional accumulation increased during the LGS, during deglaciation, and over the past 3000 years, which is concurrent with higher water levels in regional paleolakes. Unlike polar cores, Sajama glacial ice contains eight times less dust than the Holocene ice, which reflects wetter conditions and extensive snow cover. (Résumé d'auteur