‘The Greatest Bubble in History’: Stock Prices during the British Railway Mania

Although the British Railway Mania has been described as one of the greatest bubbles in history, it has been largely neglected by academics. This paper attempts to redress this neglect by creating a daily stock price index for the 1843-50 period and by assessing the contribution of the many newly-created railways to the bubble-like pattern in stock prices. The paper then examines whether this bubble-like pattern was due to an increase in the stochastic discount factor arising from an increase in the probability of large-scale adoption of railway technology. We find little evidence to support this hypothesis.bubbles, financial crises, Railway Mania

Bubbling Dividends

Although historical asset price ‘bubbles’ are often attributed to irrationality, the empirical analysis of such episodes has been limited. The results presented in this paper suggest that during an historical price reversal, investors successfully incorporated forecasts of short-term dividend changes into their valuations, but were unable to predict longer-term changes. When short-term growth is controlled for, it appears that the railways were priced consistently with the non-railways for almost the entire episode. These findings may imply that investors had imperfect foresight, but that they acted consistently

Cross-Section of a ‘Bubble’: Stock Prices and Dividends during the British Railway Mania

Historical ‘bubbles’ are often attributed to mispricing, but the empirical analysis of such episodes has been limited. This paper examines a notable but academically neglected period, known as the British Railway Mania, using a new dataset and a cross-sectional methodology which is unique to the study of historical asset price reversals. The main finding is that the cross-sectional variation in stock prices, in every week of the sample, is explained by the cross-sectional variation in dividends, growth and risk, with no significant differences between the railways and non-railways. This implies that an economic bubble was not responsible for the rise and fall in the prices of railway assets at this time

Who Financed the Expansion of the Equity Market? Shareholder Clienteles in Victorian Britain

Who financed the great expansion of the Victorian equity market, and what attracted them to invest? Using data on 453 firm-years and over 172,000 shareholders, we find that the largest providers of capital were rentiers, men with no formal occupation who relied on investment income. We also see a substantial growth in women investors as time progressed. In terms of clientele effects, we find that rentiers invested in large firms, whilst businessmen were the venture capitalists of young, regional enterprises. Women and the middle classes preferred safe investments, whilst financiers and institutional investors were speculators in foreign companies. Our results may help to explain the growth of new types of assets catering for particular clienteles, and the development of managerial policies on dividends and share issues

Cross-Section of a ‘Bubble’: Stock Prices and Dividends during the British Railway Mania

Historical ‘bubbles’ are often attributed to mispricing, but the empirical analysis of such episodes has been limited. This paper examines a notable but academically neglected period, known as the British Railway Mania, using a new dataset and a cross-sectional methodology which is unique to the study of historical asset price reversals. The main finding is that the cross-sectional variation in stock prices, in every week of the sample, is explained by the cross-sectional variation in dividends, growth and risk, with no significant differences between the railways and non-railways. This implies that an economic bubble was not responsible for the rise and fall in the prices of railway assets at this time

Bubbles and Leverage

This paper analyses the relationship between leverage and asset price bubbles. During an important historical bubble there was a substantial expansion in the number of railways promoted, most of which were financed by shares which could be purchased on an instalment basis. An analysis of a new and comprehensive dataset suggests that these assets can be modelled as futures or options, implying that investors were purchasing highly leveraged derivatives. The leverage embedded in these assets amplified returns and made it possible to obtain exposure to an asset for a small deposit. However, during the downturn negative returns were also magnified and investors had difficulties paying further instalments. Although leverage may have initially increased demand for these assets, they did not become overpriced, possibly due to a substantial increase in their supply

Bubbles and Leverage

This paper analyses the relationship between leverage and asset price bubbles. During an important historical bubble there was a substantial expansion in the number of railways promoted, most of which were financed by shares which could be purchased on an instalment basis. An analysis of a new and comprehensive dataset suggests that these assets can be modelled as futures or options, implying that investors were purchasing highly leveraged derivatives. The leverage embedded in these assets amplified returns and made it possible to obtain exposure to an asset for a small deposit. However, during the downturn negative returns were also magnified and investors had difficulties paying further instalments. Although leverage may have initially increased demand for these assets, they did not become overpriced, possibly due to a substantial increase in their supply