The challenge of estimating tuberculosis mortality accurately in England and Wales

BACKGROUND: Accurate estimates of tuberculosis (TB) mortality are required to monitor progress towards the World Health Organization End TB goal of reducing TB deaths by 95% by 2035. We compared TB death data for England and Wales from the national surveillance system (Enhanced Tuberculosis Surveillance System [ETS]) and the vital registration system from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). METHODS: TB cases notified in ETS were matched to deaths in ONS (dONS) with International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision (ICD-10) codes indicating that TB caused/contributed to the death (A15–A19). Deaths captured in one but not both systems were assessed to identify if ONS captured all TB deaths and if there was under-notification of TB in ETS. We stratified deaths into active TB, TB sequelae, incidental deaths and not TB. RESULTS: Between 2005 and 2015, there were fewer deaths in ETS (dETS) than dONS with ICD-10 codes A15–A19 (n = 4207 vs. n = 6560); 57% of dETS were recorded as dONS and 53% of dONS were notified to ETS. A total of 9289 deaths were identified from dETS and dONS: 64% were due to active TB, 23% were TB sequelae, 6% were incidental and 7% were not TB. CONCLUSIONS: TB deaths in ETS and ONS differ substantially. Almost one third of TB deaths recorded by ONS are not due to active TB; this can be amended through coding changes

IMPACT study on intervening with a manualised package to achieve treatment adherence in people with tuberculosis: protocol paper for a mixed-methods study, including a pilot randomised controlled trial

Kielmann, Karina - ORCID 0000-0001-5519-1658 https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5519-1658Introduction Compared with the rest of the UK and Western Europe, England has high rates of the infectious disease tuberculosis (TB). TB is curable, although treatment is for at least 6 months and longer when disease is drug resistant. If patients miss too many doses (non-adherence), they may transmit infection for longer and the infecting bacteria may develop resistance to the standard drugs used for treatment. Non-adherence may therefore risk both their health and that of others. Within England, certain population groups are thought to be at higher risk of non-adherence, but the factors contributing to this have been insufficiently determined, as have the best interventions to promote adherence. The objective of this study was to develop a manualised package of interventions for use as part of routine care within National Health Services to address the social and cultural factors that lead to poor adherence to treatment for TB disease.Methods and analysis This study uses a mixed-methods approach, with six study components. These are (1) scoping reviews of the literature; (2) qualitative research with patients, carers and healthcare professionals; (3) development of the intervention; (4) a pilot randomised controlled trial of the manualised intervention; (5) a process evaluation to examine clinical utility; and (6) a cost analysis.Ethics and dissemination This study received ethics approval on 24 December 2018 from Camberwell St. Giles Ethics Committee, UK (REC reference 18/LO/1818). Findings will be published and disseminated through peer-reviewed publications and conference presentations, published in an end of study report to our funder (the National Institute for Health Research, UK) and presented to key stakeholders.Trial registration number ISRCTN95243114Secondary identifying numbers University College London/University College London Hospitals Joint Research Office 17/0726. National Institute for Health Research, UK 16/88/06.https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2019-032760http://bmjopen.bmj.com/cgi/content/full/bmjopen-2019-0327609pubpub1

Epidemiology of Confirmed COVID-19 Deaths in Adults, England, March-December 2020

Of the 58,186 coronavirus deaths among adults in England during March-December 2020, 77% occurred in hospitals, 93% were in patients >60 years, and 91% occurred within 28 days of positive specimen. Cumulative mortality rates were highest among persons of Black, Asian, other, or mixed ethnicities and in socioeconomically deprived areas

A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of “Test” versus “Treat” Patients Hospitalized with Suspected Influenza in Hong Kong

BACKGROUND: Seasonal and 2009 H1N1 influenza viruses may cause severe diseases and result in excess hospitalization and mortality in the older and younger adults, respectively. Early antiviral treatment may improve clinical outcomes. We examined potential outcomes and costs of test-guided versus empirical treatment in patients hospitalized for suspected influenza in Hong Kong. METHODS: We designed a decision tree to simulate potential outcomes of four management strategies in adults hospitalized for severe respiratory infection suspected of influenza: "immunofluorescence-assay" (IFA) or "polymerase-chain-reaction" (PCR)-guided oseltamivir treatment, "empirical treatment plus PCR" and "empirical treatment alone". Model inputs were derived from literature. The average prevalence (11%) of influenza in 2010-2011 (58% being 2009 H1N1) among cases of respiratory infections was used in the base-case analysis. Primary outcome simulated was cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) expected (ICER) from the Hong Kong healthcare providers' perspective. RESULTS: In base-case analysis, "empirical treatment alone" was shown to be the most cost-effective strategy and dominated the other three options. Sensitivity analyses showed that "PCR-guided treatment" would dominate "empirical treatment alone" when the daily cost of oseltamivir exceeded USD18, or when influenza prevalence was <2.5% and the predominant circulating viruses were not 2009 H1N1. Using USD50,000 as the threshold of willingness-to-pay, "empirical treatment alone" and "PCR-guided treatment" were cost-effective 97% and 3% of time, respectively, in 10,000 Monte-Carlo simulations. CONCLUSIONS: During influenza epidemics, empirical antiviral treatment appears to be a cost-effective strategy in managing patients hospitalized with severe respiratory infection suspected of influenza, from the perspective of healthcare providers in Hong Kong

Reduction in tuberculosis incidence in the UK from 2011 to 2015: a population-based study

Background: Following nearly two decades of increasing tuberculosis in the UK, TB incidence decreased by 32% from 2011 to 2015. Explaining this reduction is crucial to informing ongoing TB control efforts. Methods: We stratified TB cases notified in the UK and TB cases averted in the UK through pre-entry screening (PES) between 2011 and 2015 by country of birth and time since arrival. We used population estimates and migration data to establish denominators, and calculated incidence rate ratios (IRRs) between 2011 and 2015. We calculated the contribution of changing migrant population sizes, PES and changes in TB rates to the reduction in TB notifications. Results: TB IRRs fell in all non-EU migrant and UK-born populations between 2011 and 2015 (0.61; 95%  CI 0.59 to 0.64 and 0.78; 0.73 to 0.83 respectively), with the greatest decrease in recent non-EU migrants (0.54; 0.48 to 0.61). 61.9% of the reduction in TB notifications was attributable to decreases in TB rates, 33.4% to a fall in the number of recent/mid-term non-EU migrants and 11.4% to PES. A small increase in notifications in EU-born migrants offset the reduction by 6.6%. Conclusions: Large decreases in TB rates in almost all populations accounted for the majority of the reduction in TB notifications, providing evidence of the impact of recent interventions to improve UK TB control. The particularly large decrease in TB rates in recent non-EU migrants provides evidence of the effectiveness of screening interventions that target this population. These findings will inform ongoing improvements to TB control

Development and description of a theory-driven, evidence-based, complex intervention to improve adherence to treatment for tuberculosis in the UK: the IMPACT study

From Crossref journal articles via Jisc Publications RouterHistory: received 2022-11-15, accepted 2023-10-23, epub 2023-11-27, issued 2023-11-27, published 2023-11-27, ppub 2024-12-31Article version: VoRPublication status: PublishedFunder: National Institute for Health and Care Research; FundRef: https://doi.org/10.13039/10.13039/501100000272; Grant(s): 16/88/06Aaron S. Karat - ORCID: 0000-0001-9643-664X https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9643-664XKarina Kielmann - ORCID: 0000-0001-5519-1658 https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5519-1658Background Tuberculosis (TB) has a significant treatment burden for patients, requiring at least six months of anti-TB treatment (ATT) with multiple medicines. Ensuring good adherence to ATT is central to global TB strategies, including those in high-income, low-TB incidence (HILI) settings. For adherence interventions to be successful and deliverable, they need to address the personal and environmental factors influencing patient and provider behaviour. Purpose This paper describes the application of theory and research evidence to inform the design process of the IMPACT manualised intervention to support ATT adherence for adults with TB disease in the United Kingdom (UK). It also provides a full description of the resulting intervention. Methods We synthesised findings from our formative research (qualitative and quantitative scoping reviews and patient and carer interviews) and supplemented these with clinic observations, a literature review, and healthcare provider interviews. Findings were mapped to the guiding theoretical framework (Perceptions and Practicalities Approach) which was operationalised to design the intervention components and content. An Intervention Development Group (IDG) of relevant stakeholders were consulted to adapt the intervention to local clinical settings. Results The pragmatic, deliverable components and content for the IMPACT intervention included: (1) an enhanced, structured, risk assessment to systematically identify risk factors for non-adherence plus locally-adapted guidance to mitigate these; and (2) patient educational materials (an animated video and interactive patient booklet) about TB and its treatment, to communicate the need for treatment and address common concerns. Conclusions Using a theory– and evidence– based approach incorporating stakeholder input, we have developed a multi-component, pragmatic, manualised intervention, which addresses patients’ personal barriers to adherence within local service resources to improve adherence to ATT within UK TB services.This work was supported by the National Institute for Health and Care Research [Grant Number 16/88/06].pubpu

COVID-19 vaccination coverage for half a million non-EU migrants and refugees in England.

Despite evidence suggesting that some migrants are at risk of under-immunization and have experienced severe health inequities during the pandemic, data are limited on migrants' COVID-19 vaccine coverage globally. Here we linked data from non-European Union migrants and resettled refugees to the national COVID-19 vaccination dataset in England. We estimated patterns in second and third dose delays and overdue doses between 12 December 2020 and 20 April 2022 by age, visa type and ethnicity. Of the 465,470 linked records, 91.8% (427,073/465,470) of migrants received a second dose and 51.3% (238,721/465,470) received a third. Refugees had the highest risk of delayed second (adjusted odds ratio 1.66; 95% confidence interval 1.55-1.79) and third dose (1.55; 1.43-1.69). Black migrants were twice as likely to have a second dose delayed (2.37; 2.23-2.54) than white migrants, but this trend reversed for the third dose. Older migrants (>65 years) were four times less likely to have received their second or third dose compared with the general population in England aged >65 or older. Policymakers, researchers and practitioners should work to understand and address personal and structural barriers to vaccination for diverse migrant populations

Hospitalization in two waves of pandemic influenza A(H1N1) in England.

Uncertainties exist regarding the population risks of hospitalization due to pandemic influenza A(H1N1). Understanding these risks is important for patients, clinicians and policy makers. This study aimed to clarify these uncertainties. A national surveillance system was established for patients hospitalized with laboratory-confirmed pandemic influenza A(H1N1) in England. Information was captured on demographics, pre-existing conditions, treatment and outcomes. The relative risks of hospitalization associated with pre-existing conditions were estimated by combining the captured data with population prevalence estimates. A total of 2416 hospitalizations were reported up to 6 January 2010. Within the population, 4·7 people/100,000 were hospitalized with pandemic influenza A(H1N1). The estimated hospitalization rate of cases showed a U-shaped distribution with age. Chronic kidney disease, chronic neurological disease, chronic respiratory disease and immunosuppression were each associated with a 10- to 20-fold increased risk of hospitalization. Patients who received antiviral medication within 48 h of symptom onset were less likely to be admitted to critical care than those who received them after this time (adjusted odds ratio 0·64, 95% confidence interval 0·44-0·94, P=0·024). In England the risk of hospitalization with pandemic influenza A(H1N1) has been concentrated in the young and those with pre-existing conditions. By quantifying these risks, this study will prove useful in planning for the next winter in the northern and southern hemispheres, and for future pandemics