Local economic shocks from globalisation are linked to an increase in authoritarian values and the Brexit vote

Voters who hold authoritarian values were more likely to vote Leave in the 2016 Brexit referendum. Cameron Ballard-Rosa, Mashail A. Malik, Stephanie J. Rickard and Kenneth Scheve show that these values are in turn related to long-term economic shocks associated with globalisation, by using data on the varied effect of changes in Chinese imports on the labour market across Britain

Replication Data for: The Structure of American Income Tax Policy Preferences

This contains the data and replication files for "The Structure of American Tax Policy Preferences.

Replication Data for: Economic Crises and Trade Policy Competition

How do crises affect trade policy? We reconcile starkly diverging accounts in the literature by showing that economic adversity generates endogenous incentives not only for protection, but also for liberalization. We first develop formally the mechanisms by which two features of shocks---intensity and duration---influence the resources and political strategies of distressed firms. Our central insight is that policy adjustments to resuscitate afflicted industries typically generate "knock-on" effects on the profitability and political maneuverings of other firms in the economy. We incorporate these countervailing pressures in our analysis of trade policy competition. In the wake of crises, protection initially increases when impacted firms lobby for assistance, but then decreases as industries run low on resources to expend on lobbying and as firms in other industries mobilize to counter-lobby. We test our theoretical predictions using sub-national and cross-national data and present real-world illustrations to highlight the mechanisms driving our results

Replication Data for: Contingent Advantage? Sovereign Borrowing, Democratic Institutions, and Global Capital Cycles

How do domestic and global factors shape governments' capacity to issue debt in primary capital markets? Consistent with the ``democratic advantage," we identify domestic institutional mechanisms, including executive constraints and policy transparency, that facilitate debt issuance rather than electoral events. Most importantly, we argue that the democratic advantage is contingent: investors' attention to domestic politics varies with conditions in global capital markets. When global financial liquidity is low, investors are risk-averse, and political risk constrains governments' capacity to borrow. But when global markets are flush, investors are risk-tolerant and less sensitive to political risk. We support our argument with new data on 245,000 government bond issues in primary capital markets---the point at which governments' costs of market access matter most---for 131 sovereign issuers (1990-2016). In doing so, we highlight the role of systemic factors, which are under-appreciated in much ``open economy politics" research, in determining access to capital markets

The economic origins of authoritarian values: evidence from local trade shocks in the United Kingdom

What explains the backlash against the liberal international order? Are its causes economic or cultural? We argue that while cultural values are central to understanding the backlash, those values are, in part, endogenous and shaped by long-run economic change. Using an original survey of the British population, we show that individuals living in regions where the local labor market was more substantially affected by imports from China have significantly more authoritarian values and that this relationship is driven by the effect of economic change on authoritarian aggression. This result is consistent with a frustration-aggression mechanism by which large economic shocks hinder individuals’ expected attainment of their goals. This study provides a theoretical mechanism that helps to account for the opinions and behaviors of Leave voters in the 2016 UK referendum who in seeking the authoritarian values of order and conformity desired to reduce immigration and take back control of policymaking