Simulating extended reproduction: Poverty reduction and class dynamics in Bolivia

An extended reproduction model is used to simulate the effects of alternative poverty reduction strategies. Three policy variables are introduced: (de)indebtedness policy, investment policy and income distribution policy, contributing respectively to the objectives of policy sovereignty, structural change and social justice. The Millennium Development Goal of halving extreme poverty by 2015 seems to be a difficult, but attainable goal for Bolivia. The model shows also the effects of poverty reduction strategies on the different social classes.industrial policy, income distribution, economic development, investment planning

Climate Change and Extreme Events: an Assessment of Economic Implications

We use a general equilibrium model of the world economy, and a regional economic growth model, to assess the economic implications of vulnerability from extreme meteorological events, induced by the climate change. In particular, we first consider the impact of climate change on ENSO and NAO oceanic oscillations and, subsequently, the implied variation on regional expected damages. We found that expected damages from extreme events are increasing in the United States, Europe and Russia, and decreasing in energy exporting countries. Two economic implications are taken into account: (1) short-term impacts, due to changes in the demand structure, generated by higher/lower precautionary saving, and (2) variations in regional economic growth paths. We found that indirect stort-term effects(variations in savings due to higher or lower likelihood of natural disasters) can have an impact on regional economies, whose order of magnitude is comparable to the one of direct damages. On the other hand, we highlight that higher vulnerability from extreme events translates into higher volatility in the economic growth path, and vice versa.Climate Change, Extreme Events, Computable General Equilibrium Models, Precautionary Savings, Economic Growth

Desnutrición en Bolivia: la geografía y la cultura sí importan

(Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) La frecuencia de problemas de salud y de desnutrición en Bolivia es alarmantemente elevada, incluso comparada con la de otros países en desarrollo. En este estudio se analiza el vínculo entre una medida bidimensional de la salud infantil, compuesta por los puntajes z de estatura y peso, y un conjunto de factores determinantes de la nutrición infantil relacionados con los contextos físico y cultural, las características de la madre, los activos del hogar y el acceso a los servicios públicos. Se procura identificar los principales factores que determinan la salud del niño y cuantificar el efecto de cada uno de ellos en cuanto al indicador bidimensional. Se adopta una estrategia secuencial para poder calcular un modelo lineal de dos ecuaciones con términos de error correlacionado. Un hallazgo importante es que las variables geográficas y culturales son factores determinantes significativos del estado de nutrición, y que las características antropométricas de la madre desempeñan un papel considerable. Se emplean datos de una encuesta demográfica y de salud de más de 3. 000 niños.

Reassessing renewable energy

This policy brief presents a long term assessment of low-carbon energies including renewables, nuclear and fossil energy with CCS. It targets the electricity sector from a global to a regional perspective and from centralized to decentralized energy systems. The policy brief aims at finding answers to the following questions: What role can and should renewable energy play in the next decades on the way to a low-carbon energy future? What is the optimal electricity mix (now and in the future)? What are the impli-cations of the optimal mix regarding renewable energy investment and policy? What framework would be needed to enhance international coordination

Poverty and class: Dynamics and strategies in Bolivia

Income distribution among social classes, a preferred topic by the classical economists, has not often been frequented by later scholars. Some recent studies show a new interest, and a generalized increase in income concentration in favor of the capitalist class, particularly in Latin America. This study uses a multisectoral dynamic simulation model to analize the effects of poverty reduction strategies on the different social classes. The model describes in detail the size income distribution by sector, and transforms it in a sectorial class distribution of incomes. A strategy includes two instruments: investment policy, and income distribution policy, influencing respectively output structure and personal income distribution. The study shows the effects on the different social classes of strategies aiming to achieve the Millennium objective of halving extreme poverty by 2015.industrial policy, income distribution, economic development, investment planning

Global income distribution and poverty: Implications from the IPCC SRES scenarios

The Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) has been widely used to analyze climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation. The storylines behind these scenarios outline alternative development pathways, which have been the base for climate research and other studies at global, regional and country level. Based on the global income distribution and poverty module (GlobPov), we assess the implication of the IPCC SRES scenarios on global poverty and inequality. We find that global poverty and inequality measures are sensitive to the downscaling methodology used. Our results show that future economic growth is crucial for poverty reduction. Higher per capita incomes tend to favour poverty reduction, while higher population growth rates delay this progress. Scenarios that combine high economic growth and convergence assumptions with low population growth rates produce better outcomes. China and India play a central role on poverty reduction and global inequality. While high economic growth rates in China and India may lift millions out of poverty, high population growth and stagnation in African economies could offset the situation

DART-BIO: Modelling the interplay of food, feed and fuels in a global CGE model

Land use and land use change are determined as much by economic and institutional drivers as they depend on bio-physical conditions. Future pathways of socio-economic and environmental systems can only be assessed with scenarios which describe possible future paths of development. For this numeric models are one important tool. To capture the complex interactions between the development of regionally differentiated economic drivers, computable general equilibrium (CGE) models can be used. We discuss in a transparent way the inclusion of land and the representation of the complex agricultural production activities into DART-BIO, a CGE model. Implementing a scenario of changes in the preferences for meat and dairy products which is currently taking place in Asia, we find that these preference changes have only minor impacts on global agricultural prices while affecting regional production and trade. Results strongly depend on key parameter settings and highlight the importance of interlinkages between biofuel and livestock production

The GTAP-W model: Accounting for water use in agriculture

Water and agriculture are intrinsically linked. Water is essential for crop production and agriculture is the largest consumer of freshwater resources. However, this link is commonly ignored by economic models mainly because water use is not reported in the national economic accounts. Few regions have markets for water. This paper describes the new version of GTAP-W, a multi-region, multi-sector computable general equilibrium model of the world economy. The new version of GTAP-W distinguishes between rainfed and irrigated agriculture and introduces water as an explicit factor of production for irrigated agriculture. Moreover, the new production structure accounts for substitution possibilities between irrigation and other primary factors. The new model has been used to study a variety of topics including: irrigation efficiency, sustainable water use, climate change and trade liberalization. This paper is a technical description of the data and features added to the standard GTAP model

Economy-wide Impacts of Climate on Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa

Two possible adaptation options to climate change for Sub-Saharan Africa are analyzed under the SRES B2 scenario. The first scenario doubles irrigated areas in Sub-Saharan Africa by 2050, compared to the baseline, but keeps total crop area constant. The second scenario increases both rainfed and irrigated crop yields by 25 percent for all Sub-Saharan African countries. The two adaptation scenarios are analyzed with IMPACT, a partial equilibrium agricultural sector model combined with a water simulation model, and with GTAP-W, a general equilibrium model including water resources. The methodology combines advantages of a partial equilibrium approach, considering detailed wateragriculture linkages with a general equilibrium approach, which takes into account linkages between agriculture and non-agricultural sectors and includes a full treatment of factor markets. The efficacy of the two scenarios as adaptation measures to cope with climate change is discussed. Due to the low initial irrigated areas inthe region, an increase in agricultural productivity achieves better outcomes than an expansion of irrigated areas. Even though Sub-Saharan Africa is not a key contributor to global food production or irrigated food production, both scenarios help lower world food prices, stimulating national and international food markets.Computable General Equilibrium, Climate Change, Agriculture, Sub-Saharan Africa, Integrated Assessment Model