Although there is little truth behind the ‘Godfather’ stereotype, mafia infiltration remains a serious problem in Italian politics

From the Godfather to Tony Soprano, the idea of the Mafia continues to have a special place in Western popular culture. Francesco Calderoni argues that despite the popularity of Mafia stereotypes, relatively little research has been carried out on the actual link between organised crime and politics in Italy. By mapping the areas of the country which have the highest Mafia presence, he illustrates the extent to which the problem has spread beyond the traditional hotspots of Mafia activity in Naples, Western Sicily, Northern Campania and Southern Calabria

Predicting Organized Crime Leaders

In the last decade, the use of social network analysis in the study of organized crime has seen significant developments. Since the beginning of the 2000s, academic interest in this specific field has strongly increased and contributed to opening new research directions in the study of criminal organizations (e.g. Natarajan 2006; Morselli, Gigu\ue8re, and Petit 2007; Malm, Bichler, and Van De Walle 2009; Bouchard and Nguyen 2010; Bright, Hughes, and Chalmers 2012; Varese 2012; Calderoni 2012; Mancuso 2013). Among the most important contribu-tions of these studies is the demonstrated importance of brokers within criminal organizations. Brokers are individuals that are capable of linking people, information and other resources. Brokering skills are extremely important for individuals to be successful in a number illegal markets and activities (Burt 1992; Morselli 2005; Morselli 2009a; Morselli et al. 2013). In criminal networks, brokers are frequently identified through betweenness centrality, a measure capturing how often an individual is positioned between two other nodes (Morselli 2009a, 39). These subjects are often in the position to better exploit opportunities for a suc-cessful criminal career (e.g., Morselli 2005)

A new method for estimating the illicit cigarette market at the subnational level and its application to Italy

This study provides a methodology with which to estimate the volumes and revenues of the illicit cigarette market at the subnational level. It applies the methodology to Italy for a 4-year period (2009\u20132012), enabling assessment of the prevalence of the illicit trade across years and regions. Notwithstanding the alleged importance of mafias, the results provide a more complex picture of the Italian illicit tobacco market. The maximum total revenues from the illicit trade in tobacco products (ITTP) increased from \u20ac0.5 bn in 2009 to\u20ac1.2 bn in 2012. The prevalence of illicit cigarettes varies significantly across regions, because of the proximity to countries with cheaper cigarettes and the possible occurrence of other crime opportunities. Understanding of these factors is crucial for the development of appropriate policies against the ITTP. The methodology may be applicable to all other EU countries, providing detailed, yearly estimates of the illicit market at the subnational level

Strategic Positioning in Mafia Networks

This paper analyzes two criminal networks belonging to the \u2017Ndrangheta, a mafia-type criminal organization originating from Calabria, a Southern Italian Region. The literature on criminal networks argues that differences in the degree and betweenness centrality measures may highlight strategic positioning patterns for criminals capable of reducing risk of detection and maintaining control over the criminal activities at the same time. However, the identification of this strategic pattern is difficult whenever, as frequently happens, centrality measures are highly correlated The paper analyzes network positioning in two mafia-type organizations, where degree and betweenness centrality were highly correlated. The analysis focuses on specific characteristics of the individuals in the networks (task, hierarchy and social status within each group) and how these relate to network positioning (centrality scores and clustering coefficient) and the outcome of the criminal proceedings (accusation, arrest, conviction and sentence in months). Results show that task and hierarchy are highly associated with network centrality, but also with accusation, arrest and conviction. Contrarily, high social status within the networks shows limited association with network centrality and the outcome of criminal proceedings. This may reveal patterns of strategic positioning which could not be identified solely though network analysis measures

Where is the mafia in Italy? Measuring the presence of the mafia across Italian provinces

This article presents the Mafia Index (MI), an index measuring the presence of mafias at the provincial level. In the abundant literature on Italian mafias, relatively few stud-ies have attempted to measure the presence of mafias across the country. A review of previous attempts points out the limitations and methodological shortcomings of exist-ing measurements. The study provides an operational definition of \u2018mafia\u2019 and selects the most appropriate indicators and variables according to multiple criteria. The MI combines data on mafia-type associations, mafia murders, city councils dissolved for infiltration by organised crime, and assets confiscated from organised crime and covers the period between 1983 and 2009. The MI highlights not only the strong concentration of the mafias in their original territories but also their significant presence in the central and northern provinces. This confirms that mafias should not be regarded as typically Southern Italian phenomena, but rather as a national proble

The Mafia Index. A measure of the presence of the mafia across Italian provinces

The presence of the mafias in Italy is an irrefutable fact. Surprisingly, however, a relatively small number of studies and publications have attempted to measure the presence of mafias on the Italian territory. This is remarkable, because measurements are fundamental in the perspective of supporting the law enforcement activity against the mafias. Probably, better data and information sharing, and therefore better measurements, could effectively contribute to Italy’s efforts to prevent mafias or to enforce the law against them. The aim of this article is to partially fill this gap and present the Mafia Index (MI hereinafter), a composite index measuring the presence of mafias at the provincial level in Ital

Uncovering the Structure of Criminal Organizations by Community Analysis: The Infinito Network

Criminal organizations tend to be clustered to reduce risks of detection and information leaks. Yet, the literature has so far neglected to explore the relevance of subgroups for their internal structure. The paper focuses on a case study drawing from a large law enforcement operation (\u201dOperazione Infinito\u201d). It applies methods of community analysis to explore the structure of a \u2019Ndrangheta (a mafia from Calabria, a southern Italian region) network representing the individuals\u2019 co-participation in meetings. The results show that the network is significantly clustered and that communities are partially associated with the internal organization of the \u2019Ndrangheta into different locali (similar to mafia families). The implications of these findings on the interpretation of the structure and functioning of the criminal network are discussed

The Italian mafias in the world: a systematic assessment of the mobility of criminal groups

This study complements existing literature on the mobility of criminal groups (mainly based on country case studies) with the first systematic assessment of the worldwide activities of the four main types of Italian mafias (Cosa Nostra, Camorra, ’Ndrangheta and Apulian mafias) from 2000 to 2012. Drawing from publicly available reports, a specific multiple correspondence analysis identifies the most important associations among mafias, activities, and countries. The results show that the mafias concentrate in a few countries; drug trafficking is the most frequent activity, whereas money laundering appears less important than expected; a stable mafia presence is reported in a few developed countries (mainly Germany, Canada, Australia, and the United States). The mafias show significant differences: the ’Ndrangheta tends to establish structured groups abroad, whereas the other mafias mainly participate in illicit trades