Improving Short-Term Electricity Price Forecasting Using Day-Ahead LMP with ARIMA Models

Short-term electricity price forecasting has become important for demand side management and power generation scheduling. Especially as the electricity market becomes more competitive, a more accurate price prediction than the day-ahead locational marginal price (DALMP) published by the independent system operator (ISO) will benefit participants in the market by increasing profit or improving load demand scheduling. Hence, the main idea of this paper is to use autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models to obtain a better LMP prediction than the DALMP by utilizing the published DALMP, historical real-time LMP (RTLMP) and other useful information. First, a set of seasonal ARIMA (SARIMA) models utilizing the DALMP and historical RTLMP are developed and compared with autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models that use the differences between DALMP and RTLMP on their forecasting capability. A generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model is implemented to further improve the forecasting by accounting for the price volatility. The models are trained and evaluated using real market data in the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) region. The evaluation results indicate that the ARMAX-GARCH model, where an exogenous time series indicates weekend days, improves the short-term electricity price prediction accuracy and outperforms the other proposed ARIMA modelsComment: IEEE PES 2017 General Meeting, Chicago, I

Impacts of COVID-19 pandemic on renewable energy production in China: transmission mechanism and policy implications

The renewable energy industry, in particular, has experienced an immense amount of pressure that has stemmed from the novel COVID-19 pandemic. This study, however, investigates the renewable energy production initiatives that have taken come into place as a reaction to the COVID-19 pandemic, using a time series data of China in particular. The study uses the robust ARDL bounds testing approach in order to get sound parameter estimates. The findings of the study reveal that COVID-19 pandemic has significantly reduced the renewable energy production in China, both in the short and long run. In addition to this, the GDP and trade tend to positively impact the incidence of renewable energy production in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic. In the same context, it has been observed that the energy price has a significant and negative impact on renewable energy production, particularly in the long-run, during the pandemic period. Keeping these observations in consideration, it can be asserted that the government should ideally adopt a short-term policy, while mid-term and long-term action plans should be formulated, so as to achieve the renewable energy targets in the future. In this regard, the research implications and future directions have thoroughly been discussed in the paper

An MAS Based Energy Management System for a Stand-Alone Microgrid at High Altitude

A multi-agent system based energy management system (EMS) is proposed in this paper for implementing a PV-small hydro hybrid microgrid (MG) at high altitude. Based on local information, the distributed generation (DG) sources in the MG are controlled via the EMS to achieve efficient and stable system operation. Virtual bidding is used to quickly establish the scheduling of system operation and capacity reserve. In addition, real-time power dispatches are carried out through model predictive control to balance load demand and power generation in the MG. The dynamic model and the energy management strategy of the MG have been simulated on a RTDS–PXI joint real-time simulation platform. The simulation results show that the proposed energy management and control strategy can optimally dispatch the DG sources in the MG to achieve economic and secure operations of the whole system

Existence of Multiple Solutions for a -Kirchhoff Problem with Nonlinear Boundary Conditions

The paper considers the existence of multiple solutions of the singular nonlocal elliptic problem , ,   = , on , where , . By the variational method on the Nehari manifold, we prove that the problem has at least two positive solutions when some conditions are satisfied

A Review of Active Management for Distribution Networks: Current Status and Future Development Trends

Driven by smart distribution technologies, by the widespread use of distributed generation sources, and by the injection of new loads, such as electric vehicles, distribution networks are evolving from passive to active. The integration of distributed generation, including renewable distributed generation changes the power flow of a distribution network from unidirectional to bi-directional. The adoption of electric vehicles makes the management of distribution networks even more challenging. As such, an active network management has to be fulfilled by taking advantage of the emerging techniques of control, monitoring, protection, and communication to assist distribution network operators in an optimal manner. This article presents a short review of recent advancements and identifies emerging technologies and future development trends to support active management of distribution networks