Evaluation of the US COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub for informing pandemic response under uncertainty

Our ability to forecast epidemics far into the future is constrained by the many complexities of disease systems. Realistic longer-term projections may, however, be possible under well-defined scenarios that specify the future state of critical epidemic drivers. Since December 2020, the U.S. COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub (SMH) has convened multiple modeling teams to make months ahead projections of SARS-CoV-2 burden, totaling nearly 1.8 million national and state-level projections. Here, we find SMH performance varied widely as a function of both scenario validity and model calibration. We show scenarios remained close to reality for 22 weeks on average before the arrival of unanticipated SARS-CoV-2 variants invalidated key assumptions. An ensemble of participating models that preserved variation between models (using the linear opinion pool method) was consistently more reliable than any single model in periods of valid scenario assumptions, while projection interval coverage was near target levels. SMH projections were used to guide pandemic response, illustrating the value of collaborative hubs for longer-term scenario projections

Population Characteristics and Seasonal Movement Patterns of the Rattlesnake Hills Elk Herd - Status Report 2000

Population characteristics of the Rattlesnake Hills elk herd indicate reduced herd growth rates from the 1980s compared to the 1990s (McCorquodale 1988; Eberhardt 1996). However, the population continued to grow approximately 25% annually through the 1990s, reaching a high of 838 animals in summer 1999. Calf recruitment rates appear to be cyclic and are likely related to reduced calf survival during the first weeks of life; however, late-term abortions may also have occurred. The cause(s) could be predator-related and/or a function of shifts in nutritional condition (age-class distributions, assuming older-age cows are less likely to recruit calves, major climate shifts) or changes in the human-related disturbances during gestation, and/or calf rearing periods. In fall 1999 and spring 2000, the population was reduced from 838 individuals to 660 individuals. The primary controlling factors were modified hunting seasons on private and state lands and the large-scale roundup conducted in spring 2000. Continued removal of animals (particularly females) within the population will be pivotal to maintain the population at a level that minimizes land damage complaints, animal-vehicle collisions, use of central Hanford areas, and deterioration of natural resources

Stu1p Is Physically Associated with β-Tubulin and Is Required for Structural Integrity of the Mitotic Spindle

Formation of the bipolar mitotic spindle relies on a balance of forces acting on the spindle poles. The primary outward force is generated by the kinesin-related proteins of the BimC family that cross-link antiparallel interpolar microtubules and slide them past each other. Here, we provide evidence that Stu1p is also required for the production of this outward force in the yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae. In the temperature-sensitive stu1–5 mutant, spindle pole separation is inhibited, and preanaphase spindles collapse, with their previously separated poles being drawn together. The temperature sensitivity of stu1–5 can be suppressed by doubling the dosage of Cin8p, a yeast BimC kinesin–related protein. Stu1p was observed to be a component of the mitotic spindle localizing to the midregion of anaphase spindles. It also binds to microtubules in vitro, and we have examined the nature of this interaction. We show that Stu1p interacts specifically with β-tubulin and identify the domains required for this interaction on both Stu1p and β-tubulin. Taken together, these findings suggest that Stu1p binds to interpolar microtubules of the mitotic spindle and plays an essential role in their ability to provide an outward force on the spindle poles

Guidelines for the use and interpretation of assays for monitoring autophagy (3rd edition)

[[sponsorship]]生物化學研究所[[note]]已出版;[SCI];有審查制度;具代表性[[note]]http://gateway.isiknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=Drexel&SrcApp=hagerty_opac&KeyRecord=1554-8627&DestApp=JCR&RQ=IF_CAT_BOXPLO