A Dynamic Approach to Rhythm in Language: Toward a Temporal Phonology

It is proposed that the theory of dynamical systems offers appropriate tools to model many phonological aspects of both speech production and perception. A dynamic account of speech rhythm is shown to be useful for description of both Japanese mora timing and English timing in a phrase repetition task. This orientation contrasts fundamentally with the more familiar symbolic approach to phonology, in which time is modeled only with sequentially arrayed symbols. It is proposed that an adaptive oscillator offers a useful model for perceptual entrainment (or `locking in') to the temporal patterns of speech production. This helps to explain why speech is often perceived to be more regular than experimental measurements seem to justify. Because dynamic models deal with real time, they also help us understand how languages can differ in their temporal detail---contributing to foreign accents, for example. The fact that languages differ greatly in their temporal detail suggests that these effects are not mere motor universals, but that dynamical models are intrinsic components of the phonological characterization of language.Comment: 31 pages; compressed, uuencoded Postscrip

Social indicators and social development

This paper concerns the use of social indicators to improve social development and the happiness of populations. A distinction will be drawn between the traditional indicators of wealth and health and the new subjective social indicators. These latter measures concern the subjective side of life quality, or happiness, which in contemporary science is more commonly referred to as subjective wellbeing (SWB). The SWB construct is described within the theoretical context of SWB homeostasis. This is a proposed management system which has the role of maintaining a positive view of the self. It will be described how the homeostatic system can be challenged by hardship and defended by a variety of resources. Recommended forms of SWB measurement will be considered. It is concluded that both objective and subjective social indicators should be consulted by policy makers in order to plan the most effective initiatives to enhance population wellbeing.<br /

Increasing population happiness through the distribution of resources

This paper concerns the ways in which public policy regarding the distribution of resources might be used to increase the happiness of the Thai population. The term happiness refers to the subjective side of life quality, which in contemporary science is more commonly referred to as subjective wellbeing (SWB). The SWB construct is described within the theoretical context of SWB homeostasis. This is a proposed management system which has the role of maintaining a positive view of the self. It will be described how the homeostatic system can be challenged by hardship. The resources that the system requires to manage such challenges will also be described. Recommended forms of SWB measurement will be considered. It is concluded that public policy which directs resources to disadvantaged population sectors may be one of the most effective initiatives to enhance population wellbeing and national productivity.<br /

'Bright' and 'slow' pupils in elementary and high school.

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nsolvency Experience, Risk-Based Capital, and Prompt Corrective Action in Property-Liability Insurance

In December 1992, the National Association of Insurance Commissioners (NAIC) adopted a life-health insurer risk-based capital (RBC) formula and model law that became effective with the 1993 annual statement filed in March 1994. In principle, well-designed RBC requirements can help achieve an efficient reduction in the expected costs of insolvencies. They can provide incentives for insurers to operate safely in cases where market incentives are weak due to government mandated guarantees of insurer obligations or asymmetries regarding solvency between insurers and buyers. RBC requirements also may facilitate or encourage prompt corrective action by solvency regulators by helping regulators to identify weak insurers and giving regulators legal authority to intervene when capital falls below specified levels. RBC requirements may force regulators to act in amore timely manner when confronted with external pressure to delay action. However, RBC capital requirements have a number ofpotential limitations. Unavoidable imperfections in any meaningful RBC system will likely distort some insurer decisions in undesirable and unintended ways. RBC requirements by themselves will do little or nothing to help regulators determine when an insurer s reported capital (surplus) is overstated due to understatement of liabilities or overstatement of assets. A well-designed RBC system should minimize costs associated with misclassification of insurers. The system should be able to identify a high proportion of troubled companies early enough to permit regulators to take prompt corrective action and should identify as troubled only a minimal proportion of financially sound insurers. This study analyzes data on solvent and insolvent property-liability insurers to determine whether modifications in the NAIC s RBC formula can improve its ability to predict firms that subsequently fail without substantially increasing the proportion of surviving insurers that are incorrectly predicted to fail. It uses logistic regression models to investigate whether changes in the weight for the major components in the RBC formula and incorporation of information on company size and organizational form improve the tradeoff between Type I error rates (the percentage of insurers that later failed that are incorrectly predicted not to fail) and the Type II error rates (the percentage of surviving insurers that are incorrectly predicted to fail). The data analyzed were for 1989-91 for firms that subsequently failed and for firms that survived through the first nine months of 1993. The authors make four main conclusions. First, less than half of the companies that later failed had RBC ratios within the proposed ranges for regulatory and company action. Second, total and component RBC ratios generally are significantly different for failed and surviving firms based on univariate tests. Third, estimation of multiple logistic regression models of insolvency risk indicated that allowing the weights of the RBC component to vary and including firm size and organizational form variables generally produce a material improvement in the tradeoff between sample Type I and Type II error rates. And, fourth,the RBC models are noticeably less successful in predicting large firm insolvencies than in predicting smaller insolvencies. Regarding the estimated weights in the logistic regression models, a major conclusion is the reserve component of the NAIC risk-based capital formula, which accounts for half of industry risk-based capital, has virtually no predictive power in any of the tests conducted. Given the high costs associated with large failures and the inferior performance of the models in predicting large insolvencies, a higher payoff in terms of reduced insolvency costs is likely to be achieved by developing models that perform better for large firms.

Quality of life research: interview with Professor Robert Cummins

Health-related quality of life (HRQOL) is a fundamental concept in the field of clinical medicine and has been studied during the last years by psychologists, sociologists, economists and managers. The concept of HRQOL includes those aspects of overall QOL that can be indicated to have an impact on patients’ health, either physical or psychological. Concerning the individuals, this incorporates physical and mental health cognitions, including sociodemographic factors, sexual functioning, fatigue, sleep disorders and functional status. One of the most eminent experts in the world in the field of QOL is Prof. Robert Cummins [Professor of Psychology at Deakin University in Australia (School of Psychology, Deakin University, 221 Burwood Highway, Victoria 3125 Melbourne, Australia. E-mail: [email protected])] who kindly accepted to answer our questions in the con- text of this special edition

Is life dissatisfaction the opposite of life satisfaction?

The circumplex model of affect proposes that states of affect can be categorised according to the two dimensions of valence and arousal. According to this model, satisfaction and dissatisfaction are located on the pleasant and unpleasant ends of the valence axis as bipolar opposites. This study investigated the relationship between these two adjectives when assessed with unipolar or bipolar response formats. This suggests that a reciprocal relationship exists between life satisfaction and dissatisfaction when a unipolar response format is employed, but not when a bipolar response format was used. These results are discussed in relation to current affect theory and subject wellbeing research. <br /

The Costs and Benefits of Reinsurance

Purchasing reinsurance reduces insurers’ insolvency risk by stabilizing loss experience, increasing capacity, limiting liability on specific risks, and/or protecting against catastrophes. Consequently, reinsurance purchase should reduce capital costs. However, transferring risk to reinsurers is expensive. The cost of reinsurance for an insurer can be much larger than the actuarial price of the risk transferred. In this article, we analyze empirically the costs and the benefits of reinsurance for a sample of U.S. property-liability insurers. The results show that reinsurance purchase increases significantly the insurers’ costs but reduces significantly the volatility of the loss ratio. With purchasing reinsurance, insurers accept to pay higher costs of insurance production to reduce their underwriting risk.reinsurance, insolvency risk, risk management, financial intermediation, cost functions, panel data.