Human Capital, Age Structure and Economic Growth: Evidence from a New Dataset

This paper discusses a new dataset on educational attainment levels by age and sex for 120 countries in the period 1970-2000 which has been reconstructed using demographic multistate back-projection methods. Using this unique dataset, we show that the differences in the education level of the younger age groups explain the differences in income per capita across countries significantly better than aggregate measures such as the education level of the entire adult population. We also present evidence that in developed countries, the education of the younger adults contributes significantly to the adoption of technology

Credit where credit is due: an approach to education returns based on Shapley values

We propose the use of methods based on the Shapley value to assess the fact that private returns to lower levels of educational attainment should be credited with part of the returns from higher attainment levels, since achieving primary education is a necessary condition to enter secondary and tertiary educational levels. We apply the proposed adjustment to a global dataset of private returns to different educational attainment levels and find that the corrected returns to education imply a large shift of returns from tertiary to primary schooling in countries at all income levels

Human Capital, Age Structure and Growth Fluctuation

This paper assesses empirically the relationship between GDP per capita growth fluctuations and the age structure and intensity of human capital across developed and developing countries. We estimate a spatial vector autoregressive model of income dynamics where the economic distance between countries is defined on their similarity in measures of human capital and its distribution across age groups. These distances are computed using a newly developed human capital data set. Spatial effects on growth volatility and complemetarity in national growth processes are explored with respect to the proposed distance metrics. Our results imply that significant growth interdependence based on human capital distances exists among countries, with highly non-linear effects

Exchange rate forecasting and the performance of currency portfolios

We examine the potential gains of using exchange rate forecast models and forecast combination methods in the management of currency portfolios for three exchange rates: the euro versus the US dollar, the British pound, and the Japanese yen. We use a battery of econometric specifications to evaluate whether optimal currency portfolios implied by trading strategies based on exchange rate forecasts outperform single currencies and the equally weighted portfolio. We assess the differences in profitability of optimal currency portfolios for different types of investor preferences, two trading strategies, mean squared error-based composite forecasts, and different forecast horizons. Our results indicate that there are clear benefits of integrating exchange rate forecasts from state-of-the-art econometric models in currency portfolios. These benefits vary across investor preferences and prediction horizons but are rather similar across trading strategies

A Practical Example for Model-Driven Web Requirements

The number of approaches for Web environments has grown very fast in the last years: HDM, OOHDM, and WSDM were among the first, and now a large number can be found in the literature. With the definition of MDA (Model- Driven Architecture) and the acceptance of MDE (Model-Driven Engineering) techniques in this environment, some groups are working in the use of metamodels and transformations to make their approaches more powerful. UWE (UMLBased Web Engineering) or OOWS (Object-Oriented Web Solutions) are only some examples. However, there are few real experiences with Web Engineering in the enterprise environment, and very few real applications of metamodels and MDE techniques. In this chapter the practical experience of a Web Engineering approach, NDT, in a big project developed in Andalusia is presented. Besides, it shows the usability of metamodels in real environments

Age Structure, Education and Economic Growth

The effect of changes in age structure on economic growth has been widely studied in the demography and population economics literature. The beneficial effect of changes in age structure after a decrease in fertility has become known as the demographic dividend. In this paper we reassess the empirical evidence on the associations among economic growth, changes in age structure, labor force participation and educational attainment. Using a global panel of countries, we find that once the effect of human capital dynamics is controlled for there is no evidence that changes in age structure affect labor productivity. Our results imply that improvements in educational attainment are the key to explaining productivity and income growth and that a substantial portion of the demographic dividend is an education dividend

The macroeconomic effects of international uncertainty shocks

We propose a large-scale Bayesian VAR model with factor stochastic volatility to investigate the macroeconomic consequences of international uncertainty shocks on the G7 countries. The factor structure enables us to identify an international uncertainty shock by assuming that it is the factor most correlated with forecast errors related to equity markets and permits fast sampling of the model. Our findings suggest that the estimated uncertainty factor is strongly related to global equity price volatility, closely tracking other prominent measures commonly adopted to assess global uncertainty. The dynamic responses of a set of macroeconomic and financial variables show that an international uncertainty shock exerts a powerful effect on all economies and variables under consideration

Unveiling Drivers of Deforestation: Evidence from the Brazilian Amazon

The drivers of deforestation are the subject of many spatially explicit studies with considerable policy impact, yet few studies account for spatial dependence, thus neglecting spillover effects. In this work, we use high-resolution remotely sensed land cover change maps, extended with socioeconomic panel data for 141 municipalities in the state of Mato Grosso, Brazil, to investigate the role of agriculture in deforestation from 2006 until 2016. Our econometric model specifically accounts for spatial indirect effects from the dependent and explanatory variables, thus avoiding biased and inconsistent estimates. We identify indirect spillover effects from croplands and direct effects from cattle as significant deforestation drivers. Neglecting to explicitly account for spatial dependence considerably underestimates deforestation pressure of soy production. We conclude that spatial dynamics play a crucial role in deforestation and need to be considered in econometric studies, in order to facilitate informed policy decisions