Association of MC1R Variants and host phenotypes with melanoma risk in CDKN2A mutation carriers: a GenoMEL study

<p><b>Background</b> Carrying the cyclin-dependent kinase inhibitor 2A (CDKN2A) germline mutations is associated with a high risk for melanoma. Penetrance of CDKN2A mutations is modified by pigmentation characteristics, nevus phenotypes, and some variants of the melanocortin-1 receptor gene (MC1R), which is known to have a role in the pigmentation process. However, investigation of the associations of both MC1R variants and host phenotypes with melanoma risk has been limited.</p> <p><b>Methods</b> We included 815 CDKN2A mutation carriers (473 affected, and 342 unaffected, with melanoma) from 186 families from 15 centers in Europe, North America, and Australia who participated in the Melanoma Genetics Consortium. In this family-based study, we assessed the associations of the four most frequent MC1R variants (V60L, V92M, R151C, and R160W) and the number of variants (1, ≥2 variants), alone or jointly with the host phenotypes (hair color, propensity to sunburn, and number of nevi), with melanoma risk in CDKN2A mutation carriers. These associations were estimated and tested using generalized estimating equations. All statistical tests were two-sided.</p> <p><b>Results</b> Carrying any one of the four most frequent MC1R variants (V60L, V92M, R151C, R160W) in CDKN2A mutation carriers was associated with a statistically significantly increased risk for melanoma across all continents (1.24 × 10−6 ≤ P ≤ .0007). A consistent pattern of increase in melanoma risk was also associated with increase in number of MC1R variants. The risk of melanoma associated with at least two MC1R variants was 2.6-fold higher than the risk associated with only one variant (odds ratio = 5.83 [95% confidence interval = 3.60 to 9.46] vs 2.25 [95% confidence interval = 1.44 to 3.52]; Ptrend = 1.86 × 10−8). The joint analysis of MC1R variants and host phenotypes showed statistically significant associations of melanoma risk, together with MC1R variants (.0001 ≤ P ≤ .04), hair color (.006 ≤ P ≤ .06), and number of nevi (6.9 × 10−6 ≤ P ≤ .02).</p> <p><b>Conclusion</b> Results show that MC1R variants, hair color, and number of nevi were jointly associated with melanoma risk in CDKN2A mutation carriers. This joint association may have important consequences for risk assessments in familial settings.</p&gt

A proposed prognostic 7-day survival formula for patients with terminal cancer

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The ability to identify patients for hospice care results in better end-of-life care. To develop a validated prognostic scale for 7-day survival prediction, a prospective observational cohort study was made of patients with terminal cancer.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Patient data gathered within 24 hours of hospital admission included demographics, clinical signs and symptoms and their severity, laboratory test results, and subsequent survival data. Of 727 patients enrolled, data from 374 (training group) was used to develop a prognostic tool, with the other 353 serving as the validation group.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Five predictors identified by multivariate logistic regression analysis included patient's cognitive status, edema, ECOG performance status, BUN and respiratory rate. A formula of the predictor model based on those five predictors was constructed. When probability was >0.2, death within 7 days was predicted in the training group and validation group, with sensitivity of 80.9% and 71.0%, specificity of 65.9% and 57.7%, positive predictive value of 42.6% and 26.8%, and negative predictive value (NPV) of 91.7% and 90.1%, respectively.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>This predictor model showed a relatively high sensitivity and NPV for predicting 7-day survival among terminal cancer patients, and could increase patient satisfaction by improving end-of-life care.</p

Are one or two simple questions sufficient to detect depression in cancer and palliative care? A Bayesian meta-analysis

The purpose of this study is to examine the value of one or two simple verbal questions in the detection of depression in cancer settings. This study is a systematic literature search of abstract and full text databases to January 2008. Key authors were contacted for unpublished studies. Seventeen analyses were found. Of these, 13 were conducted in late stage palliative settings. (1) Single depression question: across nine studies, the prevalence of depression was 16%. A single ‘depression' question enabled the detection of depression in 160 out of 223 true cases, a sensitivity of 72%, and correctly reassured 964 out of 1166 non-depressed cancer sufferers, a specificity of 83%. The positive predictive value (PPV) was 44% and the negative predictive value (NPV) 94%. (2) Single interest question: there were only three studies examining the ‘loss-of-interest' question, with a combined prevalence of 14%. This question allowed the detection of 60 out of 72 cases (sensitivity 83%) and excluded 394 from 459 non-depressed cases (specificity of 86%). The PPV was 48% and the NPV 97%. (3) Two questions (low mood and low interest): five studies examined two questions with a combined prevalence of 17%. The two-question combination facilitated a diagnosis of depression in 138 of 151 true cases (sensitivity 91%) and gave correct reassurance to 645 of 749 non-cases (specificity 86%). The PPV was 57% and the NPV 98%. Simple verbal methods perform well at excluding depression in the non-depressed but perform poorly at confirming depression. The ‘two question' method is significantly more accurate than either single question but clinicians should not rely on these simple questions alone and should be prepared to assess the patient more thoroughly