Projected coral bleaching in response to future sea surface temperature rises and the uncertainties among climate models

We quantitatively evaluated the effects of rising sea surface temperature (SST) on coral bleaching and the uncertainties resulting from differences in global warming projections. To do so, we used monthly SSTs in the twenty-first century obtained from 23 climate models under the A1B scenario (from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) and SST-based indices for coral bleaching. All of the projections indicated that severe bleaching or death of corals will be common and severe in wide areas of the tropical and subtropical oceans by the middle of this century. However, decadal oscillation could modify the exact timing by around +/- 10 years. Such projections are important for conserving marine biodiversity and designing future strategies to avoid tropical and subtropical coral extinction. To obtain more reliable projections and reduce uncertainties, climate models should be improved by using higher spatiotemporal resolutions, and more realistic biological indices should be embedded into existing models