Ensemble Sales Forecasting Study in Semiconductor Industry

Sales forecasting plays a prominent role in business planning and business strategy. The value and importance of advance information is a cornerstone of planning activity, and a well-set forecast goal can guide sale-force more efficiently. In this paper CPU sales forecasting of Intel Corporation, a multinational semiconductor industry, was considered. Past sale, future booking, exchange rates, Gross domestic product (GDP) forecasting, seasonality and other indicators were innovatively incorporated into the quantitative modeling. Benefit from the recent advances in computation power and software development, millions of models built upon multiple regressions, time series analysis, random forest and boosting tree were executed in parallel. The models with smaller validation errors were selected to form the ensemble model. To better capture the distinct characteristics, forecasting models were implemented at lead time and lines of business level. The moving windows validation process automatically selected the models which closely represent current market condition. The weekly cadence forecasting schema allowed the model to response effectively to market fluctuation. Generic variable importance analysis was also developed to increase the model interpretability. Rather than assuming fixed distribution, this non-parametric permutation variable importance analysis provided a general framework across methods to evaluate the variable importance. This variable importance framework can further extend to classification problem by modifying the mean absolute percentage error(MAPE) into misclassify error. Please find the demo code at : https://github.com/qx0731/ensemble_forecast_methodsComment: 14 pages, Industrial Conference on Data Mining 2017 (ICDM 2017

Arterial oxygen content is precisely maintained by graded erythrocytotic responses in settings of high/normal serum iron levels, and predicts exercise capacity: an observational study of hypoxaemic patients with pulmonary arteriovenous malformations.

Oxygen, haemoglobin and cardiac output are integrated components of oxygen transport: each gram of haemoglobin transports 1.34 mls of oxygen in the blood. Low arterial partial pressure of oxygen (PaO2), and haemoglobin saturation (SaO2), are the indices used in clinical assessments, and usually result from low inspired oxygen concentrations, or alveolar/airways disease. Our objective was to examine low blood oxygen/haemoglobin relationships in chronically compensated states without concurrent hypoxic pulmonary vasoreactivity.165 consecutive unselected patients with pulmonary arteriovenous malformations were studied, in 98 cases, pre/post embolisation treatment. 159 (96%) had hereditary haemorrhagic telangiectasia. Arterial oxygen content was calculated by SaO2 x haemoglobin x 1.34/100.There was wide variation in SaO2 on air (78.5-99, median 95)% but due to secondary erythrocytosis and resultant polycythaemia, SaO2 explained only 0.1% of the variance in arterial oxygen content per unit blood volume. Secondary erythrocytosis was achievable with low iron stores, but only if serum iron was high-normal: Low serum iron levels were associated with reduced haemoglobin per erythrocyte, and overall arterial oxygen content was lower in iron deficient patients (median 16.0 [IQR 14.9, 17.4]mls/dL compared to 18.8 [IQR 17.4, 20.1]mls/dL, p<0.0001). Exercise tolerance appeared unrelated to SaO2 but was significantly worse in patients with lower oxygen content (p<0.0001). A pre-defined athletic group had higher Hb:SaO2 and serum iron:ferritin ratios than non-athletes with normal exercise capacity. PAVM embolisation increased SaO2, but arterial oxygen content was precisely restored by a subsequent fall in haemoglobin: 86 (87.8%) patients reported no change in exercise tolerance at post-embolisation follow-up.Haemoglobin and oxygen measurements in isolation do not indicate the more physiologically relevant oxygen content per unit blood volume. This can be maintained for SaO2 ≥78.5%, and resets to the same arterial oxygen content after correction of hypoxaemia. Serum iron concentrations, not ferritin, seem to predict more successful polycythaemic responses

Gravitational Waves from Gravitational Collapse

Gravitational wave emission from the gravitational collapse of massive stars has been studied for more than three decades. Current state of the art numerical investigations of collapse include those that use progenitors with realistic angular momentum profiles, properly treat microphysics issues, account for general relativity, and examine non--axisymmetric effects in three dimensions. Such simulations predict that gravitational waves from various phenomena associated with gravitational collapse could be detectable with advanced ground--based and future space--based interferometric observatories.Comment: 68 pages including 13 figures; revised version accepted for publication in Living Reviews in Relativity (http://www.livingreviews.org

Irresponsiveness of two retinoblastoma cases to conservative therapy correlates with up- regulation of hERG1 channels and of the VEGF-A pathway

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Treatment strategies for Retinoblastoma (RB), the most common primary intraocular tumor in children, have evolved over the past few decades and chemoreduction is currently the most popular treatment strategy. Despite success, systemic chemotherapeutic treatment has relevant toxicity, especially in the pediatric population. Antiangiogenic therapy has thus been proposed as a valuable alternative for pediatric malignancies, in particolar RB. Indeed, it has been shown that vessel density correlates with both local invasive growth and presence of metastases in RB, suggesting that angiogenesis could play a pivotal role for both local and systemic invasive growth in RB. We present here two cases of sporadic, bilateral RB that did not benefit from the conservative treatment and we provide evidence that the VEGF-A pathway is significantly up-regulated in both RB cases along with an over expression of hERG1 K⁺channels.</p> <p>Case presentation</p> <p>Two patients showed a sporadic, bilateral RB, classified at Stage II of the Reese-Elsworth Classification. Neither of them got benefits from conservative treatment, and the two eyes were enucleated. In samples from both RB cases we studied the VEGF-A pathway: VEGF-A showed high levels in the vitreous, the <it>vegf-a, flt-1, kdr</it>, and <it>hif1-α </it>transcripts were over-expressed. Moreover, both the transcripts and proteins of the hERG1 K⁺channels turned out to be up-regulated in the two RB cases compared to the non cancerous retinal tissue.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>We provide evidence that the VEGF-A pathway is up-regulated in two particular aggressive cases of bilateral RB, which did not experience any benefit from conservative treatment, showing the overexpression of the <it>vegf-a</it>, <it>flt-1</it>, <it>kdr </it>and <it>hif1-α </it>transcripts and the high secretion of VEGF-A. Moreover we also show for the first time that the <it>herg1 </it>gene transcripts and protein are over expressed in RB, as occurs in several aggressive tumors. These results further stress the relevance of the VEGF-A pathway in RB and the correlation with hERG1, making aggressive and recurrent RB cases good candidates for antiangiogenesis therapies based on the targeting of VEGF-A.</p

Evidence and Ideology in Macroeconomics: The Case of Investment Cycles

The paper reports the principal findings of a long term research project on the description and explanation of business cycles. The research strongly confirmed the older view that business cycles have large systematic components that take the form of investment cycles. These quasi-periodic movements can be represented as low order, stochastic, dynamic processes with complex eigenvalues. Specifically, there is a fixed investment cycle of about 8 years and an inventory cycle of about 4 years. Maximum entropy spectral analysis was employed for the description of the cycles and continuous time econometrics for the explanatory models. The central explanatory mechanism is the second order accelerator, which incorporates adjustment costs both in relation to the capital stock and the rate of investment. By means of parametric resonance it was possible to show, both theoretically and empirically how cycles aggregate from the micro to the macro level. The same mathematical tool was also used to explain the international convergence of cycles. I argue that the theory of investment cycles was abandoned for ideological, not for evidential reasons. Methodological issues are also discussed

Effect of maternal Schistosoma mansoni infection and praziquantel treatment during pregnancy on Schistosoma mansoni infection and immune responsiveness among offspring at age five years.

INTRODUCTION: Offspring of Schistosoma mansoni-infected women in schistosomiasis-endemic areas may be sensitised in-utero. This may influence their immune responsiveness to schistosome infection and schistosomiasis-associated morbidity. Effects of praziquantel treatment of S. mansoni during pregnancy on risk of S. mansoni infection among offspring, and on their immune responsiveness when they become exposed to S. mansoni, are unknown. Here we examined effects of praziquantel treatment of S. mansoni during pregnancy on prevalence of S. mansoni and immune responsiveness among offspring at age five years. METHODS: In a trial in Uganda (ISRCTN32849447, http://www.controlled-trials.com/ISRCTN32849447/elliott), offspring of women treated with praziquantel or placebo during pregnancy were examined for S. mansoni infection and for cytokine and antibody responses to SWA and SEA, as well as for T cell expression of FoxP3, at age five years. RESULTS: Of the 1343 children examined, 32 (2.4%) had S. mansoni infection at age five years based on a single stool sample. Infection prevalence did not differ between children of treated or untreated mothers. Cytokine (IFNγ, IL-5, IL-10 and IL-13) and antibody (IgG1, Ig4 and IgE) responses to SWA and SEA, and FoxP3 expression, were higher among infected than uninfected children. Praziquantel treatment of S. mansoni during pregnancy had no effect on immune responses, with the exception of IL-10 responses to SWA, which was higher in offspring of women that received praziquantel during pregnancy than those who did not. CONCLUSION: We found no evidence that maternal S. mansoni infection and its treatment during pregnancy influence prevalence and intensity of S. mansoni infection or effector immune response to S. mansoni infection among offspring at age five years, but the observed effects on IL-10 responses to SWA suggest that maternal S. mansoni and its treatment during pregnancy may affect immunoregulatory responsiveness in childhood schistosomiasis. This might have implications for pathogenesis of the disease

Thoracic empyema with scarlatiniform rash and acral desquamation: a case report

A 5 year old girl with thoracic empyema developed a scarlatiniform rash and acral desquamation. Cultures from blood, throat, and pleural fluid all grew Streptococcus pyogenes, a common etiologic agent of pediatric thoracic empyema. The presence of a scarlatiniform rash and acral desquamation in children with a thoracic empyema may help identify the causative organism

Phenotypic covariance of longevity, immunity and stress resistance in the Caenorhabditis nematodes

Background \ud Ageing, immunity and stresstolerance are inherent characteristics of all organisms. In animals, these traits are regulated, at least in part, by forkhead transcription factors in response to upstream signals from the Insulin/Insulin– like growth factor signalling (IIS) pathway. In the nematode Caenorhabditis elegans, these phenotypes are molecularly linked such that activation of the forkhead transcription factor DAF-16 both extends lifespan and simultaneously increases immunity and stress resistance. It is known that lifespan varies significantly among the Caenorhabditis species but, although DAF-16 signalling is highly conserved, it is unclear whether this phenotypic linkage occurs in other species. Here we investigate this phenotypic covariance by comparing longevity, stress resistance and immunity in four \ud Caenorhabditis species. \ud \ud Methodology/Principal Findings \ud We show using phenotypic analysis of DAF-16 influenced phenotypes that among four closely related Caenorhabditis nematodes, the gonochoristic species (Caenorhabditis remanei and Caenorhabditis brenneri) have diverged \ud significantly with a longer lifespan, improved stress resistance and higher immunity than the hermaphroditic species (C. elegans and Caenorhabditis briggsae). Interestingly, we also observe significant differences in expression levels between the daf-16 homologues in these species using Real-Time PCR, which positively correlate with the observed phenotypes. Finally, we provide additional evidence in support of a role for DAF-16 in regulating phenotypic coupling by using a combination of wildtype isolates, constitutively active daf-16 mutants and bioinformatic analysis. \ud \ud Conclusions \ud The gonochoristic species display a significantly longer lifespan (p < 0.0001)and more robust immune and stress response (p<0.0001, thermal stress; p<0.01, heavy metal stress; p<0.0001, pathogenic stress) than the hermaphroditic species. Our data suggests that divergence in DAF-16 mediated phenotypes may underlie many of the differences observed between these four species of Caenorhabditis nematodes. These findings are further supported by the correlative higher daf-16 expression levels among the gonochoristic species and significantly higher lifespan, immunity and stress tolerance in the constitutively active daf-16 hermaphroditic mutants

Phenotypic covariance of Longevity, Immunity and Stress Resistance in the Caenorhabditis Nematodes

Background: Ageing, immunity and stresstolerance are inherent characteristics of all organisms. In animals, these traits are regulated, at least in part, by forkhead transcription factors in response to upstream signals from the Insulin/Insulin–like growth factor signalling (IIS) pathway. In the nematode Caenorhabditis elegans, these phenotypes are molecularly linked such that activation of the forkhead transcription factor DAF-16 both extends lifespan and simultaneously increases immunity and stress resistance. It is known that lifespan varies significantly among the Caenorhabditis species but, although DAF-16 signalling is highly conserved, it is unclear whether this phenotypic linkage occurs in other species. Here we investigate this phenotypic covariance by comparing longevity, stress resistance and immunity in four Caenorhabditis species. \ud \ud Methodology/Principal Findings: We show using phenotypic analysis of DAF-16 influenced phenotypes that among four closely related Caenorhabditis nematodes, the gonochoristic species (Caenorhabditis remanei and Caenorhabditis brenneri) have diverged significantly with a longer lifespan, improved stress resistance and higher immunity than the hermaphroditic species (C. elegans and Caenorhabditis briggsae). Interestingly, we also observe significant differences in expression levels between the daf-16 homologues in these species using Real-Time PCR, which positively correlate with the observed phenotypes. Finally, we provide additional evidence in support of a role for DAF-16 in regulating phenotypic coupling by using a combination of wildtype isolates, constitutively active daf-16 mutants and bioinformatic analysis. \ud \ud Conclusions: The gonochoristic species display a significantly longer lifespan (p<0.0001) and more robust immune and stress response (p<0.0001, thermal stress; p<0.01, heavy metal stress; p<0.0001, pathogenic stress) than the hermaphroditic species. Our data suggests that divergence in DAF-16 mediated phenotypes may underlie many of the differences observed between these four species of Caenorhabditis nematodes. These findings are further supported by the correlative higher daf-16 expression levels among the gonochoristic species and significantly higher lifespan, immunity and stress tolerance in the constitutively active daf-16 hermaphroditic mutants